Windstorm Forecasting-National Hurricane Center predictions for Tropical Storm Erika draw criticism

An excellent Tampa Bay Times article, Did the National Hurricane Center Flub Erika? aired some of the discord between the National Hurricane Center folks and others, some of whom are well-respected meteorologists.  The chief complaint seems to be that the reported track of the storm varied considerably as Erika moved up from the Caribbean. As a result, this may have eroded the public’s confidence in future NHC modeling and predictions not to mention set in motion a lot of costly emergency plans. When the Governor declares a state of emergency, things happen, costs are incurred and people’s lives are disrupted.  I suspect we may hear about the actual economic cost businesses and governments, state and local, incur when a state of emergency is declared.  If not published, I hope some enterprising reporter will dig this information out as it is news the public needs to know and should be out in the public domain.

In my view, there is nothing wrong with Monday morning quarterbacking, peer review and constructive criticism when the potential for loss of life and significant property damage is at stake. All of these things may help to make the process of disaster preparedness better and raise the awareness of the public and government to the challenges we all face when pending storms are predicted to come our way.   But make no mistake, I come down on the side of the NHC. If you read NHC updates on Erika , they were very clear that Tropical Storm Erika due to its size lacked a defined characteristic typical of a hurricane with its center of circulation as outlined. It was clear to me that the forecast was just that, a forecast and things could and did change.

Folks would do well to remember the history of other storms such as Hurricane Charley and of course Hurricane Gonzalo last year in the Caribbean.

Finally, even if the forecast is not exactly as predicted, chances are some type of severe weather may result and while not catastrophic, lives can be at risk and property damage may occur. Wind driven rain around windows and doors, rain blown through roof vents, flooding and other perils will often follow a weather system that while not as strong or on target can still cause significant property damage.

One tip to protect your property is to drain down your pool a little bit. Remember, if the pool overflows into your house, you will not be covered under most homeowner’s policies because this is water from outside the home. Your flood policy, if you have one, will not cover this water loss as the NFIP says for a flood to be covered, two or more adjoining properties must be flooded on two acres of land. Do not drain your pool too much however as it may create negative pressure that pops your pool out of the ground. Best to consult with an expert pool builder or maintenance firm before you do anything.

Another tip to help with water intrusion around windows and doors is to take blue painters tape and tape around the doors and windows. Simple to do and easy to remove when the threat is gone.

So when warnings and watches go up, it makes good sense to take some simple preventative steps like checking your property for openings around windows and doors and pay attention to pool water levels. Trust me, the damages from windblown rain and water overflow from a pool into a house can cause catastrophic damages even if predictions turn out to be not as bad as the meteorologists predicted.