Winter 2016/17 - UK Electricity Supply Security is in the Hands of Business

The National Grid today publishing their consultation on energy users; including a rather startling figure:

...the provisional de-rated capacity margin for winter 2016/17 is approximately 2.9 GW, or 5.5%... ...this includes the contingency balancing reserve services... ...If we had not procured these services, the de-rated capacity margin for winter 2016/17 would have been 0.1%

Essentially, without the support of businesses agreeing to reduce demand during this winter, there would be a very serious risk of there being insufficient capacity to meet demand.  

Good news, surely?  But not really.  For most demand reduction schemes there is actually nothing to stop a business saying "No sorry we can't turn anything off after all".  Even for the ones that do not allow a business to change it's mind, there are still potential breakdowns.  Breakdowns seem likely, especially when you consider that the generating equipment, or the system to manage demand may not have been tested for almost a full year before they are required.

0.1% of capacity, to give context, is just over 50MW (around £5k worth of electricity if maintained for 1 hour), which hardly seems like a large amount of spare capacity, especially if the winter is significantly colder than predicted, and 50,000 1KW heaters are unexpectedly run.

So the fate of the country is placed in the hands of businesses who may or may not decide whether to reduce demand, and even if they are on a scheme where they are obliged by contract to carry out demand reduction or generation - what happens if they are unable to?

It doesn't seem too far fetched to imagine that in a cold winter, with a few businesses not agreeing to reduce demand (and if they can now make more by exporting their wares, the business case may no longer be there), and a few breakdowns in poorly serviced kit, that there is a real risk to supplies.

And yes; the minister responsible for energy is currently looking to be Prime Minister.  Make of that what you will.