#WOBWednesday: You can't turn uncertainty into risk

I just finished listening to a talk by Harvard Professor Arthur C. Brooks. (Thank you, Laura Chapin for the invitation and to the Society for Human Resources Management for the event.) He said something that profoundly changed my day and my thinking about the pandemic:

You can't turn uncertainty into risk

Risk, he reminded us, is manageable. That is why insurance companies exist and can make a profit. Professor Brooks went so far as to call the insurance industry a "happiness creating business," because, generally speaking, risk is inversely related to happiness. The more risk I have, less happy I tend to be.

Uncertainty, in contrast, cannot be managed, which stresses us out. And if you're like me, you find this entire pandemic experience highly stressful.

Up until this talk, I have been asking myself over and over (and over and over) why I am I so stressed out. And my logical brain has not found a satisfactory answer, until now.

Prior to Professor Brooks' talk, I was telling myself that my life has not actually changed that radically, so I should not be so stressed. On the surface, this is true. Before being told to shelter in place (SIP), I was already a full-time remote worker. My organization is still busy, so my work life is largely the same as it was pre-pandemic. I don't have children, so I am not facing the challenges of homeschooling or caring for youngsters who are home 24/7, missing friends, and going through their own emotional responses to the pandemic. Yes, my significant other is now working from home, but he is busy during the day so the main change to our routine is only felt in the morning--more sleep and less commute for him--and on the weekend when we are home instead of out and about.

What Professor Brooks helped me understand, is that despite all the surface sameness to my life, something fundamental has shifted: Things I never thought about at all before the pandemic are suddenly sources of uncertainty. For example...

Will I get Covid-19 from opening the trash shoot in my apartment building?

Is the headache I have just a headache or is it an indication that I have been infected by this deadly virus?

How much toilet paper do I need to survive the pandemic? And if I run out, will I be able to get more?

Is my process for decontaminating groceries enough to protect me and my family? Or is it a total overreaction? (I wipe down everything. And I do mean everything!)

I could go on listing things I never thought about before late February but that I obsess over now. In an attempt to answer all these questions, my inclination has been to consume as much news and read as much research as I can in order to figure out how to mitigate the risks of this pandemic. It turns out that was a loosing proposition, because...

You cannot turn uncertainty into risk!

It turns out my efforts to learn more about this pandemic so I can make informed choices were time spent treating uncertainty as if it were risk. I have been acting as if I could find answers that would give me a sense of what the risk really is, and then make good decisions on how to mitigate and manage that risk. Beyond washing my hands and wearing a mask in public, as Mark Manson author of The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck wrote recently, none of us knows what is going on or what we should do about it. And that is the essence of uncertainty.

None of us, not even the so-called experts, knows what exactly is going on with this pandemic. We cannot accurately assess the risks the way car insurance companies can when they look at our age, gender, driving record, car, and home address and use actuary tables based on decades of data to make reasonable predictions of their risk insuring us.

Everything is uncertain.

It turns out that the efforts I have made to understand the risks of the pandemic have only lead me into a deeper pit of uncertainty. And uncertainty cannot be managed nor can it be turned into risk.

(Deep exhaling sigh.)

Thank you, Professor Brooks, for making me present to this important truth. As you recommended, I am going to go on a social media, news, and research diet so I can give myself a break from all this uncertainty. I know that will help. Of that, I am certain.