Your March 2018: Mobile Retail + Aftermarket Update
Mobile Device Aftermarket:
• New data from BayStreet Research shows the average upgrade cycle has grown from 23 months in 2014 to 31 months today. By next year, the figure is expected to climb to 33 months. Article Link
• Refurbished smartphones are now close to 10% of the total global smartphone market, helping explain the slow growth of new smartphone market in 2017. Apple and Samsung combined hold 75% of the refurbished smartphone market, with Apple leading by a significant margin. Article Link In Q3 2017, the top three selling smartphone models globally — iPhone 7, iPhone 6s, and Samsung Galaxy J2 Prime — were older models launched in 2016 or earlier. These older models of flagship phones tend to have three to four owners before being discarded. Link
• Refurbished, high-end iPhones are suffocating the growth of cheap new Androids. The fastest growing segment of global smartphones isn't Google's vision for super-cheap, simple Android phones. Instead, it's refurbished high-quality phones that carry a desirable brand but can be sold at a more affordable price. Here, Apple is "leading by a significant margin." Article Link
Feature Phones:
• Feature phones a growing segment! Globally, the smartphone market grew only 2% last year to almost 1.6 billion devices shipped, while feature phone shipments rose 5% to 450 million devices, according to Counterpoint Research. It was the slowest growth on record for smartphones and the first time the feature phone market posted growth in years. Article Link
OEMs:
• Apple is set to launch bigger iPhone. The new device is expected to have a screen close to 6.5 inches, while the body of the phone will be about the same size as the iPhone 8 Plus, as the screen uses the same edge-to-edge design as in the iPhone X. Additionally, Apple will launch cheaper iPhone based on a cheaper LCD screen, but with edge-to-edge screen design + Face ID. Article Link
• Samsung aims to ship 43m Galaxy S9 and S9+ units in 2018. In comparison, it shipped 41 million Galaxy S8/S8+ units in 2017, and 48 million S7/S7+ units in 2016. Given the slump in smartphone upgrades (see my note above), some analysts believe in the US the company will bring back the “buy one, get one free” program that we saw with the S7. Article Link
• Xiaomi is set to enter the U.S. smartphone market as early as this year. If it does, it will seriously challenge the Samsung – Apple ‘duopoly’. In order to succeed, it will need a partnership with a US mobile operator. China-based ZTE Corp. was successful in entering the US market, and is now the No. 4 smartphone vendor in the U.S. with 11% market share. Article Link
5G:
• T-Mobile US announced that it will roll out a 5G network this year, initially covering 30 cities this year (New York, Los Angeles, Dallas and Las Vegas…), and will be ready for the first 5G phones in early 2019. Article Link
• Bouygues Telecom is starting a 5G pilot with Huawei in the city of Bordeaux. Article Link
Operators:
• French operator Iliad will launch in Italy under the Iliad brand by the summer. The new entrant to the Italian market will be a normal operator, not an MVNO, with cheaper pricing, good quality, and friendlier billing policies. Article Link
Other:
• 2017 saw just over 40M VR headsets ship, leading to a total installed base of 66.5M VR headsets. Article Link
• IoT: Gartner predicts consumer spending on connected home devices will total $189m in 2018, up 18% from 2017. The emergence of virtual personal assistants (VPAs) such as Amazon Echo and Google Home are driving consumers to try out additional connected home services, such as smart lighting, through their VPA-enabled device. Article Link
• Mobile commerce: global retail e-commerce sales reached $2.304 trillion in 2017, a 24.8% increase over the previous year. Of the $2.3T, $1.357 trillion of sales were conducted through a mobile device, making it nearly 60%, up from 40% two years ago. Article Link
• Interesting: In 2019, a German consortium is aiming to complete the first privately funded moon landing. In that mission, Vodafone Group and Nokia deploy and supply the first 4G network on the moon. Article Link