Coinbase Institutional

Crypto bull cycles hit different. The past two bull markets lasted 3.5 years. We’re 1.5 years in. The past two bull markets saw prices increase 113x and 19x. Prices have increased 4x. Get the report 👉 https://lnkd.in/gr8Eiau2

With markets moving lower over the past few weeks, two questions are on many investors’ minds: What’s behind the move, and when might markets change course? We tackle both of those thorny questions in our latest batch of insights.

🆕 Monthly Outlook: What Machine Learning Models Tell Us 📘 Has crypto market performance in 1H24 been driven more by macro factors or fundamentals? Linear regression and random forest models are two commonly used machine learning algorithms that help provide valuable insights into the factors influencing cryptocurrency price movements. The difference is that where linear regression models provide a relatively straightforward interpretation of how certain factors directly impact cryptocurrency values, random forest models capture the intricate, non-linear relationships and interactions between various input factors. Ultimately, our goal is to determine whether the relationships that may have driven crypto performance in the first half of 2024 could be relevant in the second half of this year. Our model results suggest that although the macro environment continues to be relevant for crypto performance, fundamentals like network activity and user adoption are likely to remain dominant forces for the market in 2H24. This is consistent with our view that the recent price action in June had as much to do with a lack of directional macro momentum as it did with technical factors, like token supply overhangs. Given an absence of internal crypto narratives in the short term, we expect the price action to remain choppy through 3Q24 but believe the start of Fed rate cuts in September will support more interest in long duration assets in 4Q24. However, there are some things that we weren’t able to fully capture in our models, such as shifts in the US regulatory environment. For example, we think the House of Representatives’ decision to approve the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) may have contributed to a change in market sentiment earlier this year. With the US elections likely to be an important driver in 2H24, this could be a notable omission. https://lnkd.in/edQBHcN3

Just announced: the U.S. Marshals Service selects Coinbase Prime to provide custody and advanced trading services for its large cap digital assets portfolio. Coinbase Prime continues to be the platform of choice for institutions and large holders of digital assets. Learn more about why here ↓ https://lnkd.in/ed5NfQcM

After hitting new highs in the first quarter of 2024, markets have been in consolidation mode for much of Q2. This week, we look at some of the upcoming events that could shake crypto out of the summer doldrums, and we highlight the increased onchain activity of Fortune 500 companies. 

State of Crypto Summit 2024 is a wrap! Check out the session replays → https://lnkd.in/eZrg4SEB

The latest issue of our Evolving Money podcast, featuring Coinbase Co-Founder and CEO Brian Armstrong, is now live. It’s a must-listen if you want to hear directly from Brian about how crypto can transform the way money moves and make the financial system freer and fairer. We’ve also got a midyear market review that contains 10 charts that help explain what’s happening right now across markets and onchain, as well full replays of all of the sessions at last week’s State of Crypto summit.

CEO Brian Armstrong is building a world where money can move anywhere in less than a second for less than a cent. How? Listen to Evolving Money, our podcast created in collaboration with Bloomberg Media Studios. https://lnkd.in/eeaVKwDF

Last Thursday, we hosted our second Coinbase #StateofCrypto Summit. Over 600 institutional leaders, policymakers and media came together to discuss big ideas across the crypto landscape. A few themes emerged: 1 - Institutions and Fortune 500 companies are moving onchain and investing in crypto, more than ever 2 - Regulatory clarity and transparency is critical for sustainable growth and innovation 3 - Onchain technology is gaining momentum as proof of crypto’s utility This year, we got onchain with more than 1,000 experiences powered by crypto across registration, ordering, purchases and donations. Thank you to FT Live, our speakers, and the crypto community for coming together to celebrate progress, innovation and the future. Watch the replays here → https://lnkd.in/eZrg4SEB

The 2024 State of Crypto report is here Read more about how America’s top companies are building their businesses onchain ↓