The Private Bank at PlainsCapital

In the first half of 2024, five of the six mega-cap tech stocks, the so-called “Market Generals” outperformed the S&P 500’s 15.2% gain.  So far, in the second half of 2024, only one of six outperforms the S&P with a 1.34% gain, and four are down 8%.  One wouldn’t be wrong to assume market weakness would ensue as the Market Generals began to fall out of bed; however, at the beginning of September, 80% of the S&P 500 remained above its long-term trend line, the 200-day moving average. Read our latest Market Highlights here: https://lnkd.in/gEbwJWw6 #PlainsCapital #MarketHighlights

Stocks closed a volatile trading month higher as investors evaluated a benign inflation report against solid GDP data and its implications on monetary policy ahead of next week’s crucial employment report. Read our latest Weekly Market Insights here: https://lnkd.in/gR96nKEi #PlainsCapital #WeeklyMarketInsights

The most noticeable Alternative Investment index callouts for July are the reversal in fortunes for spot commodities (-4.72%) and REITs (+7.12%). Oil makes up a large portion of most commodity indices with a price linked with the Israel/Hamas conflict over the past nearly eleven months, but also of note is the improvement in domestic soy and corn supply that has weighed on their respective prices. Read our latest Alternative Perspectives here: https://lnkd.in/g_nQu3eU #PlainsCapital #Soy #Corn

Stocks rallied, and US bond yields retreated as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork for interest rate cuts later this year. During his keynote address at the Feds’ annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell noted that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” Read our latest Weekly Market Insights here: https://lnkd.in/gR96nKEi #PlainsCapital #WeeklyMarketInsights

Copper is considered a proxy for the global economy and a growth proxy for China as copper broke above $4.00/lb. In Q2 2024, a bullish narrative ensued; however, copper prices peaked in May as continued weakness from China’s housing and retail sectors weighed on the demand outlook. Read our latest Commodity Highlights here: https://lnkd.in/g5mWu9KH #PlainsCapital #Commodity

Equity markets closed the trading week solidly higher, as better-than-expected economic data indicated that recent fears of an impending recession were overblown and that the Fed remains on track to ease monetary policy later his year.  Read our latest Weekly Market Insights here: https://lnkd.in/gR96nKEi #PlainsCapital #WeeklyMarketInsights

Economic growth fears, worries about the Federal Reserve being behind the curve, and concerns about Japan’s policy path and the Yen carry trade, which was seen as the catalyst for the sharp sell-off on August 5th, have subsided substantially. A rebound in the final stretch of a wild week drove the market to its biggest back-to-back advance in 2024, and 10Y UST yields fell 5bps after pricing aggressive Fed rate cuts this week; traders then pared bets to about 100 bps. Read our latest Weekly Market Insights here: https://lnkd.in/gR96nKEi #PlainsCapital #MarketInsights

U.S. GDP was solid in Q2, and despite some choppy data to start Q3, economic growth is still tracking positively but is slowing nonetheless. Most importantly, the labor market is softening. The labor cycle is glacial in its movement. Once the labor market begins to move in a given direction, the momentum behind that movement makes it very difficult to stop. Read our latest Economic Highlights here: https://lnkd.in/dC6ak9B5 #PlainsCapital #EconomicHighlights

In July, small-cap stocks led the market for domestic U.S. stocks, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. As opposed to the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the Dow Jones comprises 30 stocks that include some of the largest financial companies, giving the index more of a value-style tilt overall. The value investment factor outperformed growth substantially in July by 7.10%. Read our latest Market Highlights here: https://lnkd.in/gEbwJWw6 #PlainsCapital #MarketHighlights

The S&P 500 sunk to a two-month low, and treasury yields have slumped as traders increased bets that the Fed will pursue a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle. Read our latest Weekly Market Insights here: https://lnkd.in/gR96nKEi #PlainsCapital #WeeklyMarketInsights