Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Glancing Coronal Mass Ejection arrivals are possible through the next couple of days. This may bring some visible aurora to mainly northern parts of Scotland, however short hours of darkness will only give brief viewing windows, and timings are low confidence.
Southern Hemisphere
Glancing Coronal Mass Ejection arrivals are possible through the next couple of days. This may bring some visible aurora to high latitudes, mainly over Antarctica.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate flares expected, chance of Strong flares. Potential further Coronal Mass Ejection glancing blows Days 1-2 (01-02 Aug), risk of Minor Storms. Chance of exceeding S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity is Moderate, with occasional Moderate-class flares observed from across the disc in the last 24 hours. We have a highly active disc with thirteen sunspot regions. Several regions in the southwest disc are in a cluster close together. A further region west of centre disc persists with marked magnetic complexity. A region in the southeast is now also revealing magnetic complexity. Three further regions near the east limb are difficult to assess with the current viewing angle.
Currently none of the Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) seen in imagery in the last 24 hours are thought to be significantly Earth directed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind has seen a CME arrivals at 31/1347 UTC. Wind speeds were slightly elevated levels, with a slight uptick after each CME arrival. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak to moderate and briefly strong after the CME arrival. The north-south component was weakly positive until the CME arrival, after which it started to vary moderately. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active , with a Minor Storm (Kp5) interval 31/1800-2100 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained at background levels with no solar radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate to High activity forecast to continue, with occasional Moderate class flares expected and a chance of isolated Strong flares.
Solar Wind /Geomagnetic Activity: Further CME arrivals are possible on Days 1-2 (01-02 Aug), chiefly on Day 1. They are both low confidence, but glancing blows are possible on both days. Furthermore, due to the number of coincident CMEs, further arrivals cannot be ruled out through the period.
No coronal hole fast wind enhancements are expected, with CME arrivals expected to be the main factor of interest during this period. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active with a chance of minor Storms. In the absence of further CME influence, activity is likely to become mostly Quiet later in the period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is currently at background levels, but with a chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storm level in response to larger flares from the western disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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