Surviving a near-death experience often brings good fortune, and Trump's assassination event has instead helped shape his glorious image as a combat hero.

According to reports, after the latest attack, the probability of Trump winning the November US election on the political gambling website Polymarket has risen from 60% before the incident to nearly 70%.

It can be said that the US election is already a foregone conclusion, with Trump, who has survived a near-death experience, having a great chance of becoming the next president.

At that time, he will return to the White House with a stronger stance to continue fulfilling the promises and goals he made before.

This event will not only completely subvert the US election pattern, but also have a significant impact on the global landscape and capital markets.

01 Capital markets will change

As a key figure in disrupting the global landscape, many of Trump's political initiatives have had a significant impact on the capital markets.

The market even specifically coined the term "Trump trade" to focus on and analyze market fluctuations influenced by him.

The scope of the so-called "Trump trade" is extremely broad, covering not only common long positions in the dollar, short positions in US bonds, but also energy, medical care stocks, etc. Many investors believe that Republican policies on tariffs, immigration and deficits will lead to a stronger dollar, higher bond yields, and a more favorable environment for stocks in these sectors.

Since the event happened on the weekend when global markets are closed, the market's reaction cannot be directly observed. Only cryptos continue to trade as usual.

But undoubtedly, when the market opens tomorrow, the first reaction of the market will definitely be a large influx of safe-haven assets, such as gold, the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and even US Treasury bonds, pushing up the prices of related assets.

As for the US stocks, there may be a short-term negative impact, but it is uncertain in the long term.

In American history, incidents of a president being assassinated are not uncommon and almost always cause significant waves in the financial markets in the short term.

For example, in November 1963, US President Kennedy was assassinated. On that day, the S&P 500 index plummeted nearly 3%, quickly reflecting the bearish sentiment, but soon the US stock market rebounded significantly, continuing to rise all the way to the end of the year, and ultimately rose 17% for the whole year.

On March 30, 1981, when President Ronald Reagan was shot and critically wounded, US stocks fell about 1.2% that day, but this was also a short-term effect. The next day, the S&P 500 index rose more than 1%.

Of course, today's historical context is very different from back then.

Before Reagan took office, the US economy was mired in obvious stagflation, rising unemployment, and financial market turbulence. The tax cuts, reduced intervention, and supply-side reforms heavily promoted by Reagan after taking office allowed the US economy to quickly recover and stimulated US stocks to experience a series of booming bull markets over the following decade.

Today, although the US economy is performing steadily, inflationary pressure and fiscal deficits are enormous, and interest rates are high. In addition, US stocks themselves have reached their highest level in history.

Under US leadership, economic deglobalization and international geopolitical conflicts have significantly intensified, adding huge uncertainty to global capital markets.

In the short term, US stocks may indeed experience a short-term decline, but their long-term trajectory will depend on Trump's every move.

But for the financial markets of other countries, this may be a huge new challenge, especially for those countries targeted by his political initiatives (high taxation and strict sanctions).

In addition to US asset stocks, cryptos rose sharply after the shooting incident. Bitcoin rose above $60,000, up more than 3%. Another crypto MAGA, short for "Make America Great Again" coin, rapidly surged more than 50% after the incident.

According to reports, after Trump's outstanding performance in the debate with Biden (also due to Biden's failures), many international giants began to show their support for Trump.

Especially after the shooting, the support of the giants for Trump has reached a new high.

Previously, Facebook, which had an obvious conflict with Trump, announced that its parent company, Meta, would restore Trump's Facebook and Instagram accounts in the coming weeks.

Musk's attitude is more positive. Although he previously stated that he had a very good relationship with Trump, he recently publicly stated that he would not donate to any US presidential candidate. However, it was revealed yesterday that he made donations to the political group "American Political Action Committee" that supports Trump, but the specific amount was not disclosed.

After the incident, Musk tweeted 6 times to support Trump wholeheartedly, even complimenting him in the tweet:"The last time America had such a tough president was Theodore Roosevelt a hundred years ago."

Obviously, Zuckerberg and Musk's attitude has changed significantly. Behind this is the enormous probability of Trump winning the election and the intention to improve their relationship with Trump in time.

In addition, Trump's political and economic proposals have greatly increased his chances of winning, which will have a significant impact on some industries.

In terms of taxation, trade, infrastructure, people's livelihood, and international situation, they all differ greatly from Biden.

The core of Trump's political proposal is protectionism of "America First", for which he is willing to cut taxes on a large scale, impose comprehensive tariffs on international trade, and protect traditional manufacturing industries in the country.

Specifically, if Trump is elected, it will be more bullish for the energy, telecommunication services, and industrial industries.

First, the oil industry may benefit the most. Trump has promised to relax regulation on energy production, support energy independence, and the excavation and use of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas, and cancel the current subsidies for renewable energy, which will be a huge boost for the oil industry.

But for new energy, the pressure may be greater. After Trump's last campaign speech, a group of new energy stocks in the US stocks fell sharply. The stock price of First Solar company even fell from $300 to $233 in the past month, with a decrease of 30%.

Secondly, Trump proposed a large-scale infrastructure construction plan, which aims to improve the infrastructure of the United States, promote economic growth, and create job opportunities through increased investment. The US infrastructure and manufacturing industries have also benefited from the continuation of policies in the past few years and enjoyed a wave of big dividends.

Another industry that may benefit from Trump's accession to the presidency is the auto manufacturing industry.

Trump's policy on promoting new energy vehicles is not as active as Biden's. His America First policy will enable American local car, especially gasoline car manufacturers to receive better policy support. This may also be the reason why Musk's attitude towards Trump has dramatically improved recently. Musk is worried that if Trump comes to power, he will cancel or raise the threshold standards for new energy vehicle subsidies, which will have a significant impact on Tesla's profits.

It is uncertain whether Trump will play to Musk's tune, but as an extremely shrewd businessman, Trump is more concerned about interests. We will have to wait and see what price Musk will have to pay, but the final result will likely be a two-way outcome.

In addition, through Trump's political and economic proposals, his chances of winning the election have soared, which will have a significant impact on some industries.

As for the fate of Meta, it may not be so lucky, as it had deeply offended Trump before, and Trump also severely criticized "Facebook is the enemy of the people" many times. Although Meta has now backtracked, it will still bleed at least a bit if it wants to reverse the relationship.

02 The global situation has become more complicated.

The Trump assassination event will not only change the fate of the United States, but also affect other countries.

For example, it will directly affect the results of the Israel-Palestine War and the Russia-Ukraine War, rewrite the relationship between the United States and Middle Eastern and EU countries, and even have a significant impact on the relationship with China.

Since Trump took office in the White House in 2016, global right-wing movements have begun to rise significantly and anti-globalization trends have emerged.

Although Trump does not advocate military action against other countries, his means of suppressing and sanctioning other countries' economies are more powerful than any previous president.

Among them, Trump has made many significant actions that have changed the global pattern, such as withdrawing from various agreements, pressuring other countries, and imposing tariffs on all foreign goods entering the United States.

In 2023, under the background of political pressure, Trump is still developing his own economic plan with his advisory team, and is still discussing and formulating various tax rates for external taxation, preparing for his post-term proposals.

If these policies are implemented, they will have a significant impact on the economies, exchange rates, global trade environments, and global capital markets of other countries.

It can be predicted that one of the most significant consequences of this anti-globalization economic proposal will inevitably be the re-emergence of inflation in the United States and even the world, which will not only cause the US interest rate reduction process to stall again, but also bring more destructive risks to the global economic recovery process.

By then, the global capital markets will have to face more uncertainties.

Editor/Emily