Gauging the fallout from a potential Joe Biden withdrawal from the presidential race is impossible in part because nothing like it has happened before.
Biden is currently his party’s presumptive nominee. This means he secured a majority of pledged delegates during the primary campaign, assuring a first-ballot victory at the Democratic convention. It’s a designation that’s come into use over the last five decades and, in that time, every presumptive nominee from both major parties has been ratified as the actual nominee. And no presidential nominee of a major party has ever dropped out during the general election campaign.
So if Biden were now to exit and be replaced by a different candidate, there’d be no parallel example at the presidential level. But there are a few that at least come close at the statewide level, where parties have — very, very rarely — changed candidates in major competitive races long after the original selection of a nominee.
Perhaps the two most prominent cases both came in 2002, when for very different reasons, Democrats replaced their Senate nominees in two competitive races. One worked out for them and one didn’t.
An ethics cloud in New Jersey
The successful candidate switch occurred in New Jersey, where Sen. Robert Torricelli was seeking a second term. Torricelli had endured a federal investigation involving a donor, David Chang, who claimed to have showered the senator with luxury gifts and cash. In January 2002, prosecutors declined to charge Torricelli, who pronounced the matter settled, corralled party support and won re-nomination without opposition.
But federal officials also referred material to the Senate Ethics Committee, which in late July “severely admonished” Torricelli in a formal letter. The issue took on renewed intensity and, by Labor Day, his Republican challenger, Doug Forrester, had drawn even in the race. In the last week of September, a court ordered the release of a memo from federal prosecutors that claimed there was “substantial corroborating evidence” to back up Chang’s allegations, but that Chang’s own credibility issues prevented them from bringing a case.
It was a bombshell development. Forrester immediately called on Torricelli to resign from office. New polling showed the Republican opening a 13-point lead. Democrats panicked. Their single-seat Senate majority was already in danger, and a loss in New Jersey would ensure its demise. The pressure from party leaders came swiftly and overwhelmingly, resulting in Torricelli withdrawing on the last day of September.
With just five weeks to go until the election, state Democratic leaders scrambled for an emergency replacement. A court ruling would be required since the statutory deadline to switch candidates had already passed. The potential for blowback over what might look like a backroom maneuver seemed real. The situation was so volatile that several would-be candidates said no.
But finally, Democrats got a "yes" from a man already deeply familiar to most New Jerseyans: 78-year-old former Sen. Frank Lautenberg, who had retired in 2001 after three terms. The state Supreme Court allowed the swap.
Republicans cried foul, but polls immediately showed Lautenberg erasing Forrester’s lead. It turned out that voters were fed up with Torricelli, not the Democratic Party as a whole. Lautenberg went on to win by 10 points.
A tragedy in Minnesota
Halfway across the country, it wasn’t a scandal but a tragedy that prompted a second candidate switch by Democrats in 2002. In Minnesota, Sen. Paul Wellstone, something of a national folk hero to liberals, was killed along with his wife, daughter and five others in a plane crash Oct. 25.
There was an outpouring of grief from Minnesotans of all political stripes with the election just over a week away. The contest was pivotal for control of the Senate, but both parties sensed that there’d be a potentially severe penalty for anything that looked or sounded like overt politicking. Norm Coleman, the Republican nominee, said he would stop campaigning for the time being.
Democrats needed to place a new name on the ballot, though. Party leaders nationally and in the state — along with Wellstone’s family — quickly signaled a preference for 74-year-old former Vice President Walter Mondale, who had attained the status of an elder statesman. A state committee meeting was set for Oct. 30 with the expectation that Mondale would be selected without opposition. Just days before the crash, a poll had put Wellstone six points ahead of Coleman. Now a new one showed Mondale up by eight.
While it was clear that he was poised to enter the race, Mondale remained adamantly silent, saying that he wanted to honor a period of mourning and make no public comments before a memorial service for Wellstone on Oct. 29.
That service was held in the cavernous basketball arena at the University of Minnesota, with an overflow crowd of 20,000 on hand. While far to the left politically, the personable Wellstone had been well-liked by many Republicans, who made the trip to Minneapolis along with a roster of top national Democratic leaders. The proceedings were broadcast live, with stations billing it as a tribute that would transcend politics.
But that’s not quite how it unfolded. Cheers greeted the Democrats as they entered – including a thunderous roar for Mondale – while jeers were audible for some Republicans. The White House had planned to send Vice President Dick Cheney on its behalf, but reports indicated that Wellstone’s family asked him to stay away.
Many of the speeches featured deeply personal and emotional remembrances of Wellstone. But others veered straight into politics, none more dramatically than one from Rick Kahn, a longtime Wellstone friend who’d been his volunteer campaign treasurer.
Kahn exhorted the crowd to win the upcoming election on Wellstone’s behalf, telling them that his legacy depended on the outcome.
“If Paul Wellstone’s legacy comes to an end, then our spirits will be crushed and we will drown in a river of tears,” Kahn said. “We are begging you, do not let that happen. We are begging you to help us win this Senate election for Paul Wellstone. We can be the answer to his prayers if you help Paul Wellstone win this election.”
He singled out Republican officials by name, pleading with them to join the effort. It was during this time that Gov. Jesse Ventura, who’d been elected as an independent four years earlier and was not seeking re-election, walked out of the ceremony, telling reporters that he considered its tone offensive.
With that, the moratorium on politicking was over. As expected, Mondale entered the race the next day, while Coleman returned to the campaign trail.
The memorial service emerged as its own issue, with Republicans accusing Democrats of abusing what was supposed to be a unifying event. In one poll, 25% of voters said that it made them less likely to support Mondale.
Initially, a Mondale win had seemed inevitable. He was widely known and respected, and it was assumed that Wellstone’s death would produce a sympathy vote for his party. But by Election Day, those advantages had eroded. Coleman ultimately prevailed by two points.
