Climate Diplomacy – New & Emerging Weapon In Geo-Politics

Self-awareness: This involves understanding and acting upon a clear national stance based on an objective comprehension of how climate change affects core national interests. Like in other policy domains, determining national interests involves political contention and may be influenced by narrow interest groups and incomplete information. 

Understanding others: This capability entails gathering and analysing information about the interests, limitations, and abilities of other actors, as well as how they perceive their actions and positions. 

Influence capacity: This involves effectively integrating national priorities into diplomatic and political channels. It requires proficiency in diplomatic tools, devising a coherent influencing strategy, implementing it across various platforms, forming alliances, fostering strategic confidence, and shaping discussions through both private and public communication. 
Climate diplomacy necessitates institutional reform and increased investment in resources and skills. The lead-up to the Copenhagen Summit highlights how the design of international processes must consider the practicalities of developing sufficient climate diplomacy capacity to utilise them effectively.  

Countries must also have a clear strategic understanding of the most crucial venues and relationships to prioritise investment. Mobilising the capacity and strategic focus required to engage effectively in an expanded climate regime is a substantial institutional endeavour, even for the most prominent nations. It demands strong commitment from senior ministers and officials, reforms to internal strategic decision-making systems, significant reallocation of human and financial resources, training and coordination of diplomats, and a robust central capacity to provide support and timely content for influencing. 

Scientific evidence unequivocally confirms climate change is occurring and is mainly attributable to human activities. The anticipated effects of climate change, including water scarcity, intensified storms, floods, and droughts, are poised to have severe consequences, already evidenced by events like heatwaves in California and famines in the Horn of Africa. These impacts threaten economic development, livelihoods, and global security, significantly impacting foreign policy objectives.

 Climate change stands as a paramount foreign policy challenge in the 21st century, with its effects increasingly shaping global security dynamics. The evolving physical environment poses substantial challenges to societal functioning, potentially leading to significant economic, social, and political ramifications. 

To tackle these challenges, a new paradigm of climate diplomacy is emerging, leveraging a comprehensive array of policies encompassing development cooperation, conflict prevention initiatives, and humanitarian aid alongside traditional measures of climate change adaptation and mitigation. These innovative foreign policy approaches extend beyond conventional climate strategies. Shifting from merely assessing climate-related risks to taking timely preventive action demands a more significant commitment to integrating climate change considerations into development, foreign, and security policies. This includes initiatives such as strengthening diplomatic networks, forging new partnerships, and raising awareness not only about the potential negative impacts of climate change but also about opportunities for sustainable societal transformation. Such a novel foreign policy approach also aids in the implementation of the historic climate accord achieved in Paris in December 2015, effectively bridging the longstanding gap between developed and developing nations. 

In recent years, German foreign policy has made significant strides in this direction, aligning closely with major developments within the United Nations, the European Union, and the G7. Through active dialogue with partners worldwide, diverse concepts of climate diplomacy have emerged, underscoring the necessity for tailored policy responses and actions. Similarly, the Republic of India has demonstrated a commitment to climate diplomacy, evident from its involvement in initiatives like the ISA International Solar Alliance formed in 2015 and its participation in COP26. 

India faces complex policy dilemmas due to climate change. Balancing the imperative of improving living standards for its vast population of 1.4 billion while also playing a significant role in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction presents a formidable challenge. The government has implemented various measures to promote renewable energy usage and reduce reliance on coal, but achieving India's 2070 net zero target remains a considerable task.  

Transitioning to lower GHG emissions is likely to impact short-term economic growth and have distributional effects, particularly for coal-dependent individuals and communities. Nonetheless, with appropriate policies, the costs, while significant, can be mitigated substantially, especially when compared to the potential costs of inaction on climate change over the next decade. 

India's commitments at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 align with the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to "well below 2 degrees." Additionally, India plays a crucial leadership role among emerging markets and developing economies, exemplified by its upcoming G20 presidency in 2023 and its involvement in initiatives like the International Solar Alliance, One Sun One World One Grid, and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure. 

India's approach to achieving 'global net zero' is guided by the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities, which emphasises developed countries and international financial institutions' responsibility for financing the transition to clean energy in the developing world. India is part of the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC) group, advocating for greater autonomy in directing finance toward adaptation and mitigation efforts to mitigate future loss and damage from climate change. 

India will play a significant role in advocating for fulfilling the 'US$100 billion commitment' - the climate finance pledged by wealthier nations to developing countries. Additionally, India will push for enhancements in both the speed and magnitude of climate finance to aid developing nations in achieving their objectives. Estimates by the LSE suggest that the current US$100 billion per year allocation needs to be revised to address the costs associated with averting climate change. By 2025, bilateral donors are urged to double their climate finance commitments, while multilateral development banks are called upon to triple their financing from 2018 levels, according to these projections. 

Various aspects serve as entry points for diplomacy regarding climate change, spanning geopolitical considerations, livelihood security, and economic advantages of climate action. Despite their diverse focuses, all these narratives underscore the necessity of cultivating specific capabilities among foreign policymakers to address the challenges posed by climate change. 

The impacts of climate change, such as melting glaciers in the Himalayas and the Andes, more frequent storms in the Caribbean and Oceania, and shifting weather patterns in Africa and the Middle East, present immense challenges. These consequences raise geopolitical issues, affect livelihoods and development, and require strategic responses to ensure sustainable development. They also provoke fundamental questions in international politics, such as sovereignty, territorial integrity, and access to resources like water, food, and energy. Over the coming decades, climate change is anticipated to have significant and highly unpredictable effects on societies, undermining human security and heightening the risks of conflict and instability. 

There exists a consensus among scientists and policymakers worldwide that climate change will exacerbate existing threats to international peace and security and may even act as a catalyst for conflicts. Various official statements, position papers, and resolutions from entities like the United Nations, the European Union, and the G7, along with other international and regional organisations and donor agencies, have underscored the security implications of climate change. Addressing the security challenges posed by climate change necessitates a broad coalition. An effective partnership should involve governments, with foreign ministries playing a central role alongside science, business, and civil society representatives. 

Diplomacy on climate change engages with various aspects, including geopolitical factors, livelihood security, and the economic benefits of climate action. Despite their differing focuses, these narratives highlight the need for foreign policymakers to develop specific capabilities to tackle climate change challenges. 

The impacts of climate change, such as glacier melting in the Himalayas and the Andes, more frequent storms in the Caribbean and Oceania, and changing weather patterns in Africa and the Middle East, pose significant challenges. These effects raise geopolitical concerns, impact livelihoods and development, and call for strategic responses to ensure sustainability. They also raise fundamental international political questions, including sovereignty, territorial integrity, and access to essential resources like water, food, and energy. Climate change is expected to have substantial and unpredictable societal impacts over the coming decades, undermining human security and increasing the risk of conflict and instability. 

There is a widespread agreement among scientists and policymakers globally that climate change will exacerbate existing threats to international peace and security, potentially triggering conflicts. Various official documents, including statements, position papers, and resolutions from organisations like the United Nations, the European Union, and the G7, along with other international and regional bodies and donor agencies, emphasise the security implications of climate change. Addressing the security challenges posed by climate change requires a broad coalition involving governments, with foreign ministries taking a central role, as well as representatives from science, business, and civil society. 
It is the role of climate diplomacy to deliver the effective and timely construction of this complex international regime and ensure its effective operation and evolution to address emerging challenges. Climate diplomacy is the interface between national interest debates and international assistance. It is how nation-states–increasingly non-governmental and sub-state actors–determine and work to deliver their international goals. 

Swift, widespread, and comprehensive international involvement is imperative to mitigate the risks of climate change. Climate change shares fundamental characteristics with other significant foreign policy issues like nuclear proliferation and terrorism. Mismanagement of these issues presents credible threats to global prosperity and security, characterised by high uncertainty regarding these threats' nature, scope, scale, and pace. While all pose challenges to "hard security," there are no singular solutions for them, necessitating complex international collaboration across various domains, including development aid, transportation policies, security measures, energy cooperation, technology assistance, and efforts to shape public attitudes. 

Climate diplomacy should leverage the successful strategies employed in other diplomatic endeavours. Despite the daunting challenges, achieving an effective climate regime is not beyond reach, as history has shown remarkable transformations within a short span. The achievements of the current climate regime, notably in driving significant global shifts in investment, are often overlooked. Diplomacy has historically wielded soft power to shape mindsets, influence international and national agendas, and facilitate governmental operations. Examples include the Marshall Plan for European reconstruction post-WWII, managing the peaceful transition of economies and governance in Europe after the Cold War, and crafting multilateral regimes like the WTO, the IAEA, and UNCLOS. 

Experience demonstrates that with political backing and concerted diplomatic efforts, international cooperation can be mobilised to address longstanding and emerging global challenges, including climate change. Effective climate diplomacy must confront various shortcomings in international alliances. While the perceived inadequacies of the UNFCCC are often highlighted, it's crucial to recognise that the strength of international institutions relies on their members' political will and diplomatic vigour. Similar to other global issues such as arms control, trade, and conflict prevention, the roots of international diplomatic failures are multifaceted and extend beyond the negotiating table.  
Climate diplomacy faces four distinct yet interconnected modes of failure regarding global participation, which it must strive to address: 

Lack of conducive political conditions for agreement: There may exist such a fundamental disparity in perceived national interests among countries, which are essential for a stable and effective agreement, that the possibility of reaching a viable agreement is precluded. In such instances, the conflicting instructions provided by national governments to their negotiators hinder the prospects of agreement even before negotiations commence. The only remedy for this failure is to endeavour to alter the understanding of the national interest in key countries so that their negotiators are empowered to receive more adaptable instructions. 

Another there's the issue of failing to achieve the highest possible aspiration: Even when there's a political agreement in principle, how the international process is conducted, its choreography or its structure might result in a less ambitious outcome than could have been achieved, or even lead to outright failure. Many argue that this was the case during the UNFCCC process at the Copenhagen Summit in 2009. Climate diplomacy needs to focus on designing processes that encourage the highest level of ambition possible, supplemented by informal engagement networks to foster trust and encourage participation. 

Lastly, there's the challenge of implementation failure: Even if an international agreement is secured, national action may not adequately follow suit due to bad faith, lack of capacity, or changing circumstances. While the political process may produce formal outcomes, it often needs to improve in providing the means for effective action. The international climate regime must be structured to address implementation risks by establishing transparent mechanisms for compliance, cooperation, financial and technical support, review processes, and adaptable regime evolution. Climate diplomacy should aim to deliver tangible outcomes, not just symbolic agreements. The regime should be equipped to manage the risks associated with underperformance. It should integrate climate concerns across all relevant institutions within the broader regime, including trade, investment, finance, and development participation. 

In conclusion, effective diplomacy goes beyond superficial relationship-building measures and involves significant investments in joint projects and information sharing, including in confidential domains. In many developing countries, there's a concern that climate change initiatives may be used as a guise to impede their growth and introduce protectionist trade practices. Increasing transparency in internal discussions and highlighting the importance of climate change in broader foreign policy contexts can help build confidence in a country's motives, positions, and statements. Military collaboration and joint exercises have often fostered trust between countries with tensions in "hard security" areas. 

In summary, diplomacy isn't just about projecting external positions. Its application to climate change is crucial for integrating climate considerations into decision-making processes and reshaping the core national interest. Diplomacy should align climate issues with other national priorities, bridge the gap between national and international actions, and leverage international momentum to drive domestic progress, and vice versa.