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The weekly stats uncovered

A series that goes behind the numbers in the news

  • A woman does a lateral flow test for coronavirus at home.

    What questions should you ask when you hear a claim based on data?

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    The source, the number, and the claim need to be trustworthy
  • Sajid Javid

    Exponential growth is unintuitive and can be frightening

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    But, fortunately, it cannot continue indefinitely
  • The lockdown in the UK saw an increase in abstention but also in heavy drinking

    Deaths attributable to alcohol, air pollution and flu must be modelled rather than counted

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    People might like a single number to explain an issue but health is much more nuanced than that
  • A medical worker prepares a Covid-19 vaccine in Dutywa, South Africa.

    Dealing with uncertainty about the Omicron variant

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    Caution is sensible when so much is unknown
  • ivermectin bottle and tablet in a hand

    With Covid studies, the quality of the evidence matters

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    Putting many low-quality studies together cannot provide reliable answers about masks and ivermectin
  • Mother and daughter in car

    How do we know the effect of boosters?

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    Like seatbelts, vaccines lower risk and two studies reveal the protection that a third jab offers
  • Covid dashboard

    On Covid, we need to be careful when we talk about numbers

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    A recent wave of mistakes shows how misinterpreting data risks misrepresenting the impact of the virus
  • A sea of flags commemorates Americans who died from Covid-19 in an art memorial by Suzanne Brennan Firstenberg at the National Mall in Washington in September 2021.

    We can be confident there have been far more than 5 million global Covid deaths

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    Estimating ‘excess’ fatalities, a more robust analysis method, puts the pandemic’s grim toll between 10m and 19m people
    Coronavirus – latest updates
    See all our coronavirus coverage
  • Pregnant women receive vaccine

    What proportion of pregnant women have been fully vaccinated?

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    The share is likely to be higher than recent claims
  • a woman is given a covid vaccine

    Which protects you more against Covid – vaccination or prior infection?

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    For the Delta variant at least, the latest analysis suggests they are roughly equivalent
  • A medical worker holds a test tube after administering a nasal swab to a patient.

    What’s the value of a confirmatory PCR test?

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    A positive lateral flow test, followed by a negative PCR, still means a reasonable chance of Covid-19
  • mourners carrying coffin

    More people are dying at home, but the quality of their deaths matters most

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    Did they receive care and compassion from loved ones or did they die alone, fearful of getting infected in hospital?
  • Two people hug in Mitchell Street Glasgow.

    Rules and advice don’t slow the spread of the virus – human behaviour does

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    Surveys can help us understand how the pandemic is influenced by our choices
  • Critical Care Consultant Jenny Townsend, right, works with Critical Care staff to carry out a tracheostomy procedure on a COVID-19 patient on the Christine Brown ward at King's College Hospital in London, Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2021. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth, Pool)

    The difficulties of estimating long Covid

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    The number of people with post-Covid syndrome depends on the statistical method used
  • Protesters gather outside the old Public Health England offices to demonstrate against the vaccine passport and future lockdowns.

    Take care with claims about unvaccinated case rates

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    Different estimates of the population can produce wildly different rates
  • A near-deserted Oxford Circus in March 2020.

    More depression and anxiety, but fewer suicides in England and Wales during lockdown

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    Mental health statistics over the pandemic have a complex pattern
  • woman using calculator

    Numbers don’t always mean what they seem to mean

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    It pays to always check what is actually being counted
  • Michael Rosen, author and poet, who has recently recovered from Covid-19. Photographed at home in London. Photograph by David Levene 21/9/20

    Who is now receiving critical care for Covid?

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    Almost one in three younger women admitted are currently or recently pregnant
  • UK job vacancies hit record high while wages rise<br>epa09417764 A supermarket advertising staff wanted in London, Britain, 17 August 2021. Job vacancies have risen sharply across the UK as the labour market continues to rebound following the coronavirus pandemic. EPA/ANDY RAIN

    Covid has played havoc with interpreting economic trends

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    Caution is needed when extrapolating from statistics in times that are far from normal
  • a crowd of shoppers in rome

    Will we reach herd immunity for the new coronavirus?

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
    It appears unlikely, but we should try to get as close as possible
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