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Skeptical polling

A closer look at who's doing what in the polls – and what they really tell us

  • U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton takes selfie at a campaign rally in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania<br>U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (lower right) takes a selfie photograph at a campaign rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S. November 7, 2016, the final day of campaigning before the election. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

    Who is leading the polls the day before voting? Not a clear 'Clinton' or 'Trump'

    Questions over early voting, margins of error and the accuracy of individual polls leave plenty of questions, even this close to the election
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    Clinton's 'October surprise' helps Trump in polls – but will it affect election day?

    The Republican has been closing in on Clinton since her email investigation was reopened but popular vote doesn’t always translate into electoral college gains
  • Hillary Clinton Campaigns In Ohio Ahead Of Election<br>CINCINNATI, OH - OCTOBER 31: Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton greets supporters during a campaign rally at Smale Riverfront Park on October 31, 2016 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The presidential general election is November 8. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    Election polls tighten – but turnout is the real key to Clinton v Trump

    Early voting is expanding in some states compared with 2012, but there are signs of declining turnout from African Americans and young people
  • clinton trump

    Poll shows Trump and Clinton neck and neck in unpopularity contest

    Washington Post/ABC poll suggests candidates are disliked about evenly, which could upset Clinton’s voter turnout amid latest email developments
  • Donald Trump

    Clinton and Trump virtually tied in Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio polls

    As polls continue to tighten in battleground and typically Republican-leaning states, the electoral math looks increasingly impossible for Donald Trump
  • Donald Trump<br>ADVANCE FOR USE THURSDAY, OCT. 20, 2016 AND THEREAFTER-FILE - In this Monday, July 25, 2016 file photo, a supporter of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds a sign during a campaign rally in Winston-Salem, N.C. A Kaiser Family Foundation-CNN poll released in September 2016 compared white college graduates and the white, black and Hispanic working class. Working-class whites were least likely to say that they're satisfied with their influence in the political process, that the federal government represents their views, and that they believe their children will achieve a better standard of living than themselves. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

    Poll suggests voters would be leaning Republican with another candidate

    Findings from George Washington University show more US voters trust Republicans to handle top issues including the economy and national security
  • Hillary Clinton

    Can Clinton win Utah? Poll shows her tied with Trump and independent

    Mitt Romney won the state by 48 points and John McCain by 28. But 56% of Mormons say Republican leaders should no longer support Donald Trump
  • Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton

    How big is Hillary Clinton's lead in the presidential race? It depends on the poll

    Polls can be confusing – but US data editor Mona Chalabi advises if you choose to pay attention, focus on when it was conducted, not when it was published
  • A man watches a a live broadcast of the presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton at Seoul railway station in South Korea.

    Who won last night's debate? 68% say Trump, but here's why it's garbage

    Drudge Report poll is not a representation of the cross-section of US voters but rather a snapshot of readers on the right of the political spectrum
  • Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson.

    The other 15%: what effect will third-party voters have on the election?

    Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and Evan McMullin are winning over quite a few voters – and they appear to be drawing equally from potential Democrats and Republicans
  • A picture taken on September 26, 2016 shows ceramic figurines, called "caganers" (poopies), representing US president Barack Obama (L) and US Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, ahead of the first campaign debate. Statuettes of well-known people defecating are a strong Christmas tradition in Northeastern Spanish region of Catalonia, dating back to the 18th century as Catalans hide 'caganers' in Christmas Nativity scenes and invite friends to find them. The figures symbolize fertilization, hope and prosperity for the coming year. / AFP PHOTO / LLUIS GENELLUIS GENE/AFP/Getty Images

    America's choice for president: Barack Obama or Donald Trump?

    Poll results showed seven percentage points separated the sitting Democrat from the Republican nominee, but such horse-race analysis doesn’t tell us much
  • Supporters cheer as Donald Trump speaks to a large group at an airport hanger Tuesday in Melbourne, Florida.

    Trump is four percentage points ahead of Clinton – but the poll is an outlier

    LA Times and USC polling has consistently suggested an optimistic picture for Donald Trump – but it’s important to understand their methodology
  • clinton trump debate

    Clinton v Trump: why the first post-debate poll should be read with caution

    A poll taken right after the first presidential debate showed that viewers thought Clinton was the clear winner. But her supporters shouldn’t be celebrating just yet
  • Stand-ins take to the lecturns for lighting and sound checks September 25, 2014 at Hofstra University's David &amp; Mack Sport and Exhibition Complex in Hempsted, New York ahead of the first head-to-head presidential debate September 26 between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. / AFP PHOTO / PAUL J. RICHARDSPAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images

    How are Clinton and Trump polling before the first debate?

    This is the first of a new series that takes a regular look at what polls can tell us, and, more importantly when polls tell us nothing but junk information. First up, where are the candidates ahead of the first presidential debate of 2016?
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