Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s polarising speeches wherein he implied that the Opposition coalition would redistribute the wealth and reservations from Hindus and Dalits, to the Muslims is being held as a critical factor behind the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) falling short of simple majority. But the variability of impact the speeches made in the Awadh and Purvanchal belts of Uttar Pradesh in comparison to Bihar where the social fabric and subaltern equations are not much different is also a quandary to many.
The answer lies in Akhilesh Yadav patiently laying a caste siege around the BJP’s Hindutva pitch for nearly two years. The BJP crumbled under the weight of 37 seats and 33.6% vote share in the State that decides who forms the government in Delhi.
Also read | Election results 2024: SP’s robust non-Yadav, OBC outreach pays off with BJP’s Purvanchal setback
With 12 Kurmi candidates and a dozen prospects from Shakyas, Mauryas, Kushwahas, Pal, and Nishad communities, he made the BJP play on his PDA (pichde, dalit, alpsankhyak) pitch and posed livelihood questions. “We zeroed in on the caste that could win us a particular seat and then looked for the best candidate in that group,” a member of the core team said.
The biggest plus was the Dalit outreach whereby the party fielded two SC candidates, a Pasi and a Jatav, from general seats. It sent a message across the State that Yadavs are shedding their aggressive stance and opened a window into the Bahujan Samaj Party voter base that has reduced to half in comparison to 2019. The party is in no mood to bring Chandra Shekhar Azad who has won the Nagina seat and is working on empowering its own Dalit leaders.
Awdhesh Prasad has not only won in Faizabad (Ayodhya) but the Dalit consolidation behind SP has ensured that it has won all the four seats of the division. Out of the 17 seats in the Awadh division, the BJP could win only seven, eight less than in 2019. Here the SP also wrested Banda-Chitrakoot, another centre associated with Ram from the BJP as its Kurmi candidate Krishna Patel defeated BJP’s seasoned politician R.K. Singh.
In the 26 seats of Purvanchal, the BJP has won 10 seats; in 2019 it had secured 18. In Shravasti, SP’s Ram Shiromani Verma, another Kurmi candidate, defeated BJP’s Saket Mishra, the son of Nipendra Mishra, chairman of the Ram Temple Construction committee.
In his speeches, he raised issues that people could identify with. For instance, we would give figures of around 50 lakh candidates that filled the ₹400 form of the U.P. Police recruitment exam that was postponed because of a paper leak to paint a picture of corruption and apathy. Lacing the content with wit, he would point out how the BJP government changed the police helpline number from 100 to 112 to indicate the rise in the percentage of cuts in shady deals. He kept the definition of PDA flexible. In Robertsganj, it was Adivasi; in Moradabad, it was both alpsankhyak (minority) and women, who he referred to as adhi abadi (half of the population).
The voter could relate to the danger to the reservation and rising corruption because he could see the impact of privatisation of education in U.P. During the campaign, one came across parents with modest incomes who spent lakhs on the education of their wards in private institutes without resulting in gainful employment. The education in government colleges was not at least pinching the pocket.
Some contractors complained of a rise in rates of under-the-table dealings. “Earlier, if you indulged in illegal mining, one had to pay a certain price for a day. Now the officer has divided 24 hours into day and night. So we have to pay double,” complained a contractor in Firozabad. In the last year, CBI and ED’s net became part of the everyday language of the rural folk. So when Mr. Modi presented the spectre of INDIA alliance’s taking away their jewellery and cattle, they couldn’t relate to it.
“In this election, Mr. Yadav has emerged as his own man and has freed himself from the clutches of navaratnas (the coterie of nine young leaders) who tended to keep him away from the ground reality,” a senior party leader said. It was also suggested that holding a decade in Opposition made him politically astute and secure in his skin. It reflected in the way he aligned with the Congress to maximise the Muslims vote, addressed the ego of Azam Khan, and kept the Yadav clan together.
“It started with sorting out the family issues and then the other two fell in place,” a senior leader said. Reminiscing about the late Mulayam Singh, he said, “This election has given a new Netaji to the country, one of the top ten leaders in the country. For the first time, the BJP had to respond to our narrative and was found wanting.”
The BJP cadre are holding the party leadership responsible for not taking Mr. Yadav seriously. The chatter is that while the government focussed on Arvind Kejriwal, the SP president was allowed to work under the radar. Conferring a Padma Vibhushan on Mr. Mulayam Singh is now being seen as a tactical error. So does the attempt to create Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav as the new poster boy of the community. The party didn’t wake up when his rally in Mainpuri proved an utter flop. It had no response when the Yadavs asked why the BJP had fielded only one candidate from the community out of 80 seats.y
There is a feeling that Yogi Adityanath was sidelined in ticket distribution and the damage done by the likes of Lallu Singh (Faizabad) who talked about changing the Constitution and turncoats like Om Prakash Rajbhar is being discussed.
Meanwhile, another senior SP leader said if the 43 seats won by SP and Congress and converted into Assembly seats, the alliance is in a position to form the government in the State. “My understanding is SP will not push for staking a claim for forming the government at the Centre and would like to see the NDA and the double engine crumble. So far Modiji has run a one-man show. He has no experience saying ji huzoor [yes sir], the reality of running a coalition government,” the SP leader said.
