Caste identity triumphed over religious polarisation in Uttar Pradesh as the INDIA bloc’s promise of saving rozi roti (employment) and reservation outshone Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance’s narrative of Ram, ration, and shashan (governance) in a fiercely contested election where more than a dozen seats went down to the wire before the Opposition alliance secured 44 out of 80 seats bringing down the NDA tally from 64 to 35.
Riding on the PDA (Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) plank and propelled by a severely diminished Bahujan Samaj Party, Akhilesh Yadav shed the Muslim-Yadav image of the Samajwadi Party and repurposed the red and green force as the champion of social justice, securing a record 36 seats.
The caste calculus of U.P. ke ladke (sons of U.P.) worked as Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav complemented each other. Keeping the campaign low-key in the first two rounds, Mr. Gandhi played second fiddle to Mr. Yadav. But ground reports suggest that the SP supremo read the mood of the Muslim and Dalit voters before he left 17 seats for the Congress and the grand old party came out on top in six constituencies.
Fielding two SC candidates from general seats proved to be a smart move as Awadhesh Prasad bagged the prestigious Faizabad-Ayodhya seat and though Sunita Verma lost to BJP’s Arun Govil in Meerut by a thin margin, her presence sent a message across western U.P. that Jatavs and Yadavs could fight for a common cause.
Be it Ram Bhual Nishad defeating veteran BJP leader Maneka Gandhi in Sultanpur, Rajiv Rai outclassing Arvind Rajbhar in Ghosi or Devesh Shakya defeating Kalyan Singh’s son Rajveer Singh, Mr. Yadav scythed through the non-Yadav OBC arithmetic of the BJP across the State, particularly in Purvanchal.
Discontent on the ground
After the consecration of Ram Temple, U.P. was seen as a done deal for the BJP but the results have shown that the ruling party failed to gauge the discontent on the ground. The results have dented the brand Modi as his own victory margin has come down by around five times and the BJP has lost the other three seats in the Varanasi division.
Also, the fact that the BJP lost Ayodhya and Muzaffarnagar, the epicentres of Hindu assertion in the State, proves that the Hindutva wand has begun to corrode.
In contrast, Mr. Gandhi and Mr. Yadav’s decision to contest from Rae Bareli and Kannauj improved the strike rate of the INDIA alliance in the Awadh belt, which was a bastion of the BJP for the last two general elections.
The anti-incumbency remained a major factor as six ministers of the Modi government lost their seats. The party suffered by repeating 44 sitting MPs despite adverse reports. The stories of infighting in the ruling party turned out to be true as the two engines seemed to have collided. The Rajput anger was real and so was the influence of Bahubalis (strongmen) from the Kshatriya clans. It reflected in the BJP’s defeat in Kaushambi, Pratapgarh, Jaunpur and Machhli Shahar. Most of the candidates against whom the supporters of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath raised reservations bit the dust at the hustings or managed to win by a wafer-thin margin.
Allies come a cropper
The NDA allies failed to pull their weight behind the BJP. While Apna Dal (Soneylal), the BJP’s window to the Kurmi vote, could secure only one of the two seats it contested, the outspoken Om Prakash Rajbhar could not deliver the Rajbhar vote as his son lost the Ghosi contest. Similarly, Praveen Nishad, son of Sanjay Nishad, who was expected to bring the votes of boatmen communities could not retain Sant Kabir Nagar seat.
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) won both its seats in western U.P. but the key Muzaffarnagar seat was lost and the farmers anger against Union Minister Ajay Mishra Teni in Lakhimpur Kheri could not be arrested. The dynastic barb did not affect the SP as all the members of the Yadav family sailed through to victory in the polls.
Angered by frequent paper leaks, rampant privatisation of jobs, and lateral entry into government jobs without following the reservation norms, the youth seemed to have switched towards the INDIA bloc. It reflected in the Axis My India survey and the social media campaign where the INDIA alliance found more traction. The youth bought Mr. Yadav’s interpretation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s brazen appeal for 400 paar (crossing 400 seats). By the time Mr. Modi realised its impact, the damage was done.
Mr. Modi spoke at length about his appeal among women voters and analysts linked it to the direct benefit transfer (DBT) schemes. The results show that though the percentage of women voters in the State was higher than men, they were not swayed by a singular issue and their political choices are as complex to decipher as that of men.
Observers say BSP chief and former Chief Minister Mayawati played her part by removing her nephew from the campaign in the middle of the election. It sent a message to her core vote that she wanted to be free from the cudgels of the agencies and that the INDIA bloc is in a better position to save the provision of reservation in the system. Meanwhile, the victory of Azad Samaj Party chief Chandra Shekhar Azad from Nagina has opened a new window for Muslim-Dalit consolidation.
