The Lok Sabha election results in the State have thrown up two things in particular — the Vokkaliga-Lingayat consolidation in favour of the NDA in south Karnataka, and a total rout of BJP by the Congress, fuelled by a perceived consolidation of the oppressed classes, in five seats of Kalyana Karnataka.
Consolidated support
In probably a first in nearly three decades, the Vokkaligas and Lingayats, the dominant land-owning communities in south and north Karnataka, respectively, have together supported the NDA that won 12 of the 14 constituencies in south Karnataka where the BJP’s ally Janata Dal (S) remains strong.
Though Lingayats and Vokkaligas had rallied behind BJP and Janata Dal (S), respectively, by the end of 2018 during the first tenure of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, largely seen as an AHINDA face, they were in politically opposite camps.
Observers believe that the two dominant communities have come together for the first time since 1996, when the united Janata Dal returned with an impressive 16 seats and propelled H.D. Deve Gowda to the post of the Prime Minister.
JD (S) says that Lingayats came in support of its (Vokkaliga) candidates in Mandya and Hassan while the Vokkaligas stood behind the BJP (Lingayat) candidates in Tumakuru and Shivamogga, besides Mysuru, where the scion of erstwhile Mysore royal family has been elected. Of the four constituencies that saw a face-off between Vokkaliga candidates, the NDA won three.
Historical undercurrent
The State’s political canvas for most part of the last seven decades has witnessed strong under currents between the two communities in their struggle for power.
However, the two communities came together for the first time in the 1980s to oppose the rise of the other backward classes (OBCs) in power politics of the State and Janata Parivar had provided the platform. Observers also point out that a large number of current Lingayat leaders in BJP were once a part of Janata Parivar.
In Kalyana Karnataka, the total dominance of the Congress has been attributed to further consolidation of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Muslim votes in favour of the party over statements by BJP leaders on “changing the Constitution”.
The absence of Janata Dal (S), which would get a fraction of these votes, in the electoral fray led the electors from these segments to the Congress. This election has also seen an increase in the voting percentage among Muslims. In contrast to the popular perception, the voting percentage of Muslims in several constituencies is still low, and Congress made efforts to bring this “non-voting” people to the polling booths.
SC/ST votes
The Naik community, which is dominant in Raichur, Ballari, and neighbouring constituencies, is believed to have continued backing the Congress.
The community — over the confusion in ST reservation — was believed to have moved away from BJP during the 2023 Assembly elections. The defeat of former BJP Minister B. Sriramulu in Ballari (ST) and the Congress’ victory in Raichur (ST) is being seen in this light.
The Lingayats in Kalyana Karnataka voting in favour of Congress, the party believes, increased marginally though a sizeable chunk in the community continued to support the BJP. The victory of the candidate from OBC in Koppal, where Lingayats are said to be in large numbers, against a Lingayat candidate is seen as a result of a “bad decision” by the BJP.
Of the four constituencies reserved for the Scheduled Tribe, the Congress won two and the BJP and JD (S) won one each. Observers believe that though the overwhelming number of Scheduled Castes may have voted for Congress, while dominant castes consolidated, resulting in the victory to BJP and JD (S).
In Bombay Karnataka region, the BJP continued to do well and this has been attributed to the overwhelming support of the Lingayats and lack of cohesion among the OBCs.
This is also true in coastal Karnataka where a combination of OBC consolidation and Muslims could have posed a challenge to the saffron party that swept all the three coastal seats.
Published - June 05, 2024 08:30 pm IST
