Political parties in Kerala optimistic in the face of low voter turnout

Multiple factors such as urban voter apathy, the absence of any wave, negative voting sentiments rather than massive anti-incumbency, migration, vacation season, heatwave, and the typically lengthy voting process seem to have contributed to the low voter turnout in the Lok Sabha polls in Kerala on Friday.

Besides, each of the 20 constituencies has distinct characteristics that may have also influenced the comparatively lower percentage of polling than in the 2019 elections. Moreover, as observed in the past, a clear south-north divide in the voting pattern was evident in these elections. However, there are exceptions, such as in politically sensitive Alappuzha, where the poll battle was intense.

Arguably, even then, a little over 71% turnout is a fairly high rate in a politically and socially conscious State like Kerala. For comparison, if 66% of the voting-eligible population turned out for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, it was 67.3% in the U.K.’s general election of 2019.

In fact, many observers believe that any turnout exceeding the 80-85% range may be suspicious of bogus voting. The introduction of electronic voting machines has not only brought down the complaints of bogus voting but also almost stopped the rigging of elections.

Another aspect is that the number of voters in each constituency has also increased. For example, the total electorate in Vadakara was 12,88,926, and the turnout was 82.6% (10,65,932 votes) in the 2019 polls. This time, the total electors in the constituency was 14,21,883, and the turnout was 78.08%. That means 11,09,440 cast their votes in the polling that continued till 11:45 p.m.

Usually, a voter spends between 30 seconds and one minute exercising her franchise. This involves presenting the identity card, checking the name on the voter list, signing a slip, having the index finger marked, and then proceeding to the polling kiosk. However, during this election, voters were also mindful to verify the Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail, which adds an extra seven seconds before the slip drops into the sealed box.

The debate over voter abstention, despite the high-voltage campaign, proves futile, as the rationale behind electorate deviation from adult suffrage has its own logic, a senior government official said.

In the past, party members ensured that their sympathisers and supporters reached the polling stations. However, this machinery may have dwindled over the years, especially during Lok Sabha polls.

Unpredictable outcome

Now, political parties in Kerala are keeping their fingers crossed after a low voter turnout. While high turnout historically favoured the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), past elections have shown that electoral outcomes can be unpredictable, especially in North Kerala.

However, much water has flowed under the bridge with the emergence of the BJP altering the electoral sphere in the State. In its stages of growth, the BJP used to dent the votes of Congress in the initial stage, then it ate into the vote bank of the CPI(M) in the second phase, and this time, the party could possibly garner votes from both Congress and CPI(M). This would be a worrying factor for both coalitions.

In 2019, with a turnout of 77.84%, the CPI (M)- Left Democratic Front secured just one seat, while the UDF bagged the remaining 19. In 2014, when the turnout was 73.94%, the UDF garnered 12 seats while the LDF secured 8. In 2009, with a polling percentage of 73.38%, the UDF held 16 seats while the LDF acquired 4. In 2004, during a polling rate of 71.45%, the LDF secured 18 seats, the UDF obtained 1, and NDA gained 1.