The extraordinary feature of voting patterns in Madhya Pradesh was that at all stages of the electoral process, the BJP had a lead over the Congress, resulting in the Congress’ decade-low performance and the BJP securing a high-record vote share. Both parties made every effort to attract voters through their campaigns, but Congress was not successful in turning the tide.
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In the case of the BJP, Union Minister Amit Shah reportedly distributed a list of tasks to the cadre, which certainly proved fruitful. These included bolstering the party’s booth presence, assigning workers to each booth to carry out party operations, interacting with voters on social media, revitalising Panna Pramukhs, interacting with women through self-help organizations and other religious and cultural institutions, and initiating outreach programs specifically aimed at communities, professionals, and influencers. However, even before the campaign began, three in every ten voters had made up their minds and among them, half had decided to vote for the BJP. Over two in every five voters made up their minds during the campaign. In this group, the pro-BJP voters outnumbered the pro-Congress voters by seven percentage points. This lead further increased among the last-minute deciders (Table 1). In other words, while the campaign and last-minute appeals by Shivraj Singh Chauhan did help the BJP, the party already had an edge.
Lokniti-CSDS data sheds light on key aspects of the campaign: home visits, digital communication, party preferences, and voter engagement. Both Congress and the BJP engaged extensively in door-to-door canvassing, with equal proportions (81%) reaching out. But despite equal efforts, the BJP benefitted more. In a noteworthy turn, nearly half of the voters approached by Congress through door-to-door canvassing opted to cast their vote for the BJP. Even in the case of the digital campaigns, Congress communicated with 52% of voters, earning 41% of their votes, while BJP, in contact with 55%, secured 53% of their votes through phone, WhatsApp, and SMS (Table 2).
The unmistakable conclusion, then is that the BJP already had an advantage over Congress and the campaign further made sure that the advantage translated into votes.
Nirmanyu Chouhan and Subhabita Krishna are researchers at Lokniti-CSD