The BJP’s victory provides an opportunity to evaluate the electoral outcome through the lens of the incumbent government’s performance. Data from the Lokniti-CSDS post-poll study has been evaluated to gauge voter opinions on the performance of the State government.
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Voter satisfaction
Notably, seven of every 10 respondents (69%) expressed satisfaction with the Congress government. Of them, four of every 10 (42%) expressed full satisfaction and close to three of every 10 (27%) expressed partial satisfaction (Table 1). Further analysis shows that while Ashok Gehlot’s State government received positive ratings, the work done by the Narendra Modi government at the Centre outshone it.
Four-fifths of voters were satisfied with the work done by the Central government (51% were fully satisfied and 29% were somewhat satisfied). Satisfaction in terms of a net of extremes (fully satisfied minus fully dissatisfied) stood at a comfortable 28% for the State government and 45% for the Central government. Overall, voters rated both the State and Central governments’ performances positively, as a greater proportion of voters was satisfied rather than dissatisfied. But the degree of satisfaction was greater with the Central government compared to the State government.
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Despite a high level of satisfaction with the Congress government, there was discontent in specific areas. More than three-fifths of the electorate mentioned price rise over the past five years, and almost two-fifths highlighted an increase in unemployment (Table 2). Moreover, these economic issues also featured in the answers to a separate question probing the aspects of the Gehlot government that voters found least favourable. Close to two of every 10 (18%) respondents pointed to the perceived surge in prices, while one-sixth (16%) conveyed their dissatisfaction with the prevailing rate of unemployment. One-seventh (14%) of respondents specified corruption as the worst aspect of the government.
Interestingly, in the evaluation of the Gehlot government’s best areas of work, again the economy figured prominently in voters’ answers: reduced unemployment was the top-rated aspect, followed by efforts for the benefit of the poor, and the welfare programmes initiated by the government (Table 3).
Complex interplay
This intricate interplay of satisfaction levels and the perceived performance of both the State and Central governments provides an insight into the complex dynamics influencing voters’ choices. Despite favourable opinions about the Congress’s performance, the BJP managed to secure a substantial portion of votes from those satisfied with the State government. Almost half (49%) of those who were somewhat satisfied with the State government opted for the BJP in these elections. Even among those who were fully satisfied with the Congress government, one-fifth voted the BJP (Table 4).
This could give the impression that voters might be influenced principally by the performance of the Central government. But this is not the case. Interestingly, among those who were somewhat satisfied with the BJP at the Centre, only one in five voted for the BJP in the State, while over half voted the Congress. Even among those fully satisfied with the Central government, more than a quarter voted for the Congress (Table 4).
The data indicate that voters might have considered various factors such as party loyalty, caste, identity, and local issues when casting their vote. The tradition of changing the incumbent government every five years may be influenced by these diverse factors, not just the incumbent’s performance.