The BJP managed to weave a broad social coalition excluding the Muslims. But this coalition was steered mainly by the upper castes. The vote share for the BJP among Brahmins, for example, increased from about 39% in 2018 to 71%. The party’s vote share among the Rajputs too increased this time. It is no wonder that among BJP supporters, one in every three is Brahmin, Rajput, or from another upper caste. This is not to say that the success of the BJP owes exclusively to the upper castes; it is the combination of upper and backward castes that helped the BJP unseat the Congress government. One-third of Jats and half of other OBCs supported the BJP — an improvement over 2018. The BJP’s ‘Hindu umbrella’ was completed with three of every 10 voters among the SCs and STs too voting for it.
In contrast, 90% of the vote share of the Muslim community (9%), half the SCs, and more than one-third of STs voted the Congress. These sections account for almost half the party’s voters in the State. Also, the OBC vote of the Congress has not shrunk in five years. The party barely got one-fifth of the Jat vote. Jats and STs particularly seem to have supported new smaller players.