BJP’s Lok Sabha victory sparks tripolar shift in Kerala’s polity

By winning a Lok Sabha seat for the first time and securing a vote share of almost 17%, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to have turned these polls into a tripolar polity in Kerala.

Individually, the BJP secured 16.68% of the total votes polled, while the CPI(M) and the Congress received 25.82% and 35.06% respectively. The BJP-Bharath Dharma Jana Sena combine obtained 19.21%. Even then, only by surpassing the psychological threshold of a 20% vote share can the BJP truly navigate into the complex fabric of Kerala’s coalition politics.

The spectacular victory of actor-politician Suresh Gopi in the Thrissur, along with the impressive performances of Union Ministers of State Rajeev Chandrasekhar and V. Muraleedharan in Thiruvananthapuram and Attingal respectively, and party State vice-president Shobha Surendran in Alappuzha, has demonstrated that the party can penetrate the strongholds of both the Congress and the CPI(M).

Multiple factors may have contributed to Mr. Gopi’s victory, including his candidacy, the party’s effective campaigning using women activists, the defection of Congress leader Padmaja Venugopal to the BJP, and support from the Catholic Church. Besides, he has been campaigning in the constituency for over a year, with visits from Central leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

That Mr. Chandrasekhar took on three-time MP Shashi Tharoor revealed that urban voters have been fatigued with the incumbent. In the neighbouring segment of Attingal, Mr. Muraleedharan finished a respectable third. Similarly, Ms. Surendran garnered more than one lakh votes than the BJP candidate obtained in the 2019 polls.

A preliminary analysis showed that the BJP has been able to attract the votes of Hindu communities such as the Nairs and Ezhavas/Thiyyas that traditionally used to show an inclination towards the Congress and the CPI(M). This apart, the party gained acceptability among marginalised groups such as Dalits, Other Backward Classes, and tribal communities.

However, the party has struggled to muster the support of minority interest groups, especially Christians, across the State. This, despite efforts by the BJP Central leadership to court various Christian denominations, including meetings between Mr. Modi and Church leaders.

The BJP’s decision to field Anil K. Antony, son of veteran Congress leader A.K. Antony, in Pathanamthitta was aimed at securing Christian votes. However, Mr. Antony received only 2.34 lakh votes, less than secured by BJP State president K. Surendran last time.

A possible reason may be due to the choice of candidate, as local BJP leaders were expecting a senior party member to contest from the constituency.

This time, BJP Central leaders decided to minimise the involvement of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh in party affairs, particularly in candidate selection, campaigning, and election management, to avoid alienating minority communities.

Although the party’s vote share in Palakkad, Kozhikode, and Kasaragod increased moderately, its performance in these segments were underwhelming. However the BJP performed better in Alathur, Kannur, Vadakara, and Wayanad.

The BJP did not field many familiar faces like P.K. Krishnadas, Kummanam Rajasekharan, C.K. Padmanabhan, and A.N. Radhakrishnan. The decision to rotate leaders between constituencies every election is impacting the BJP’s prospects in Kerala.

Had Ms. Surendran contested from Attingal again, she might have won the seat, sources said.