After Lok Sabha debacle in Punjab, AAP has task cut out to find new commander

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After its disappointing electoral performance in the recent Lok Sabha election in Punjab – the only full-fledged State where the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is in power – the task appears to be cut out for the party to work towards creating a second-rung leadership, especially from the Dalit community, to take on future battles ahead.

The election result data shows that in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the AAP could win only nine seats of the 34 Assembly segments reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) that are part of Punjab’s 13 Parliamentary constituencies. Interestingly, SCs constitute close to 32% of the state’s population, the highest percentage of SC population among the States in the country. In this LS election, the Congress gave an impressive show as it registered a win on 14 reserved seats. Notably, in the 2022 Assembly election, the AAP had wrested 28 reserved seats.

The AAP, which came to power in Punjab with a thumping majority by winning 92 of the 117 Assembly seats in 2022, could only win three Parliamentary constituencies of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 election. AAP’s poor performance is seen as a blow for the party, especially for Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, who was leading the party’s Lok Sabha election campaign. It was only at the fag end of the campaign that AAP supremo and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, after he was granted interim bail by the Supreme Court in the liquor policy case until June 1, 2024, campaigned briefly for the party.

After Mr. Kejriwal’s arrest, his wife Sunita Kejriwal’s involvement has increased in the party. According to party sources, in the past few days, many legislators from Punjab have met Ms. Sunita to share their feedback surrounding the party’s Lok Sabha electoral debacle. A source privy to the matter said that feedback over a possible leadership change at the top level in the State was also sought, even though the party has refused any discussion surrounding the leadership change in the State.

“Following the arrest of Mr. Kejriwal, the MLAs have been meeting Ms. Sunita to convey the message that they stand with her and Mr. Kejriwal and are united. There have been no discussions about changing the Chief Minister,” AAP’s Punjab unit’s working president Budh Ram told The Hindu on Wednesday.

The poor performance of the AAP in the reserved segments indicates the dipping popularity of the party among the Dalit community and other weaker sections, owing to multiple reasons, even as there’s a line of thinking among a section of the party and political observers that a leader from SC community should be promoted by the party at the top level to lead the party and capture the vacuum surrounding Dalit leadership in the State.

“The AAP’s Lok Sabha performance in reserved Assembly segments is a clear indication that the party has lost its ground among SCs and weaker sections, which may be due to unkept promises or other reasons. It is evident that the party needs to create and strengthen its second rung of leadership, especially if it could promote its leadership from the Dalit community it may help the party to gain the trust of the ‘Dalit’ voters, which could be critical, ahead of the 2027 Assembly election in Punjab. Besides, there are several issues surrounding Dalits that have been lingering on since previous regimes, which if resolved could consolidate the vote bank to a certain extent in favour of the ruling party,” said Surinder Singh an assistant professor of Political Science at Panjab University’s Rural Centre at Kauni in Muktsar Sahib district.