The result of the Lok Sabha election in Tamil Nadu was a sweep for the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and its allies, but a closer look will reveal several important and crucial points that all parties would do well to take note of. The erosion of the AIADMK’s vote base, which began immediately after the death of former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa in December 2016, continued to such an extent that the party, for the first time in a Lok Sabha election, forfeited deposits in seven constituencies. In the past too (1980, 1996, 2004 and 2019), it fared disastrously. But it has never suffered the ignominy that it experienced this time.
Bastion breached
Among the seven constituencies where the AIADMK did not retain its security deposit were South Chennai and Tirunelveli. Only 10 years ago did the party capture the two seats (in fact, it retained South Chennai in 2014) with a vote share of 40% and above. In these two places, it was the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), an erstwhile ally of the AIADMK, that was the runner-up. This apart, even in the western region, considered a traditional bastion of the party, the fall appears to be steep. Be it in Coimbatore or the neighbouring Pollachi or Namakkal, the drop, compared to the party’s performance in 2014, was in the range of around 23 percentage points to 16-17 percentage points. However, AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami says that compared to 2019, his party’s overall vote share went up by about 1%.
In the last decade, the 2021 Assembly election result did provide a breather to the party, but the organisation has undergone massive churning since then. Besides, its core supporters are still being wooed by T.T.V. Dhinakaran, general secretary of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), V.K. Sasikala, former interim general secretary of the AIADMK, and even some BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Sway diminished
Veteran academic G. Palanithurai asserts that under the given circumstances, the performance of the AIADMK is impressive, though it did not get a single seat. “You should not forget the fact that EPS is neither M.G. Ramachandran nor Jayalalithaa. He lacks the charisma factor,” he says. This time, he adds, the AIADMK had only one ally — the DMDK — which began with a bang, but its sway has diminished. In addition, the party can no longer fall back on the Central government for support as it broke the ties with the BJP in September last year.
The possible emergence of the BJP, whose Hindutva ideology has all along been considered alien to the political ethos of Tamil Nadu, as a major force in near future — if not as a principal force — is another highlight of the outcome. Though the party, under the leadership of La. Ganesan (now Nagaland Governor), former Union Minister Pon. Radhakrishnan, and former Telangana Governor and Lt. Governor of Puducherry Tamilisai Soundararajan, made its presence felt in State politics in a relatively subdued manner, the appointment of L. Murugan in 2020 and K. Annamalai the next year, as the president of the State unit, gave a different dimension to the organisation. That the two young leaders were keen on promoting their party’s interests aggressively became well known very quickly. Incidentally, it was Mr. Annamalai’s observations on former Chief Ministers C.N. Annadurai and Jayalalithaa that became the cause for the divorce between the AIADMK and the BJP.
‘Disproportionate gains’
Mr. Annamalai had been in campaign mode, virtually from day 1. His virulent attacks on the ruling DMK, through what he called disclosures of deeds of alleged corruption, his party’s agitations on many issues of public importance, and his En Mann En Makkal yatra, which was attended, among others, by the Prime Minister and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, have contributed to the perception that the BJP is here to stay and it can no longer be ignored or taken lightly. The cumulative impact of all the events in the last three-four years has been illustrated in the form of the rise in the vote share of the BJP, though its political adversaries say the BJP has “disproportionately” benefited from its allies, including the PMK. When all is said and done, the national party’s vote share jumped from 5.56% in 2014 (when it faced the electorate without the support of either of the Dravidian parties) to 11.24% in 2024, when it was not aligned with any Dravidian major either. On the other hand, the PMK, which was one of the allies of the BJP even in 2014, saw its support base hovering around 4.5% then (4.45%). It is 4.3% now.
The fact that the two erstwhile allies — the AIADMK and the BJP — bagged no seat has naturally disturbed the leaders of the two parties. Talk has already begun in political circles that had there been a tie-up, the outcome would have been different in at least a dozen seats. The AIADMK’s Coimbatore strongman and former Minister, S.P. Velumani, and Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan of the BJP reckon that the alliance would have won most of the seats. But it is debatable whether any such electoral understanding would have yielded results, given the acrimonious way in which the two parted ways about 9 months ago. It could have well been the Tamil Nadu version of what happened to the Congress-Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) alliance in Delhi.
For the DMK, the verdict is seen as a popular endorsement of the functioning of its three-year government under the leadership of Chief Minister M.K. Stalin. For the second consecutive term, the party and its allies accomplished a massive victory. As their slogan goes, all the 40 seats (including the Puducherry Lok Sabha constituency) went their way. Many welfare schemes, such as Magalir Urimai Thogai Thittam (a scheme to give ₹1,000 each to women subject to certain conditions), free bus travel for women, and the Chief Minister’s Breakfast Scheme for school children, have aided the ruling party and its allies. On the political front, Mr. Stalin saw to it that the coalition he stitched up at the time of the 2019 Lok Sabha election remained intact. The ruling front saw the addition of the Makkal Needhi Maiam, led by Kamal Haasan, to its fold.
Nothing much to cheer about
Though the DMK-led alliance improved its victory margin in 14 constituencies in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, compared with its performance in 2019, and 12 of its nominees secured a vote share of 50% and more, there is a view in certain circles that the ruling party does not have much to cheer about. “Five years ago, it was not in power, whereas it is in power now. Having implemented the welfare schemes and admitted the Makkal Needhi Maiam into its alliance, the vote share of the DMK-led front should have gone up from its previous score of 53.2%,” says Professor Palanithurai. Nevertheless, the coalition regained a portion of the vote base that it had lost three years ago in the 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly election, when its figure was 45.4%. It is now 47%.
The latest election also demonstrated the growth of the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), albeit incrementally. The approach of the party’s founder, Seeman, is increasingly grabbing the attention of many opinion-makers. Unmindful of the successive setbacks, the party consistently fielded its candidates in all the elections, going it alone, and steadily allocated 50% of the seats for women, a norm that no other party follows. Though the NTK is widely perceived as a party that seeks to cultivate a base among the weaker sections of society, especially in rural areas, its leader is also seen as a forceful speaker on several issues.
Meanwhile, actor Vijay, who announced the launch of his party, Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam, in February, has said he is going ahead with preparations to face the 2026 Assembly election. Consequently, he is likely to make his presence felt more in the coming months.
It will be under these circumstances that the two Dravidian majors are going to face the Assembly election in 2026. The by-election to the Vikravandi Assembly constituency and the elections to rural local bodies in most of the districts will have to be conducted in the second half of this year. While the DMK-led coalition is likely to remain intact, it is to be seen whether the AIADMK-BJP alliance will be revived. Leaders of the party, Mr. Palaniswami and D. Jayakumar, have since reiterated that the AIADMK will have no truck with the national party in the Assembly election too. There is also talk in political circles about whether the course of politics pursued by the BJP will continue or Mr. Annamalai will make way for another leader. Though it is too early to predict the outcome of the 2026 election, it is certain that the next two years will, indeed, be very eventful in the political sphere of Tamil Nadu.
Dravidian majors fall short of 50% mark, combined
After 15 years, the combined vote share of the DMK and the AIADMK did not exceed the 50% mark.
While the DMK’s vote share stood at 26.93%, its arch rival’s figure was 20.46%, taking the total to 47.39%. This was marginally lower than what it was in 2009 (47.97%), when the figures were 25.09% and 22.88% respectively.
Ever since 1998, when both parties began to contest in a maximum number of constituencies in the Lok Sabha elections while heading the coalitions of their own, they together crossed the 50% mark in 2004, 2014 and 2019 — 54.37%, 67.84%, and 52.93% respectively. Ironically, the results of all the three elections, in terms of seats won, were lopsided. In 2004 and 2019, the AIADMK got zero and one seat respectively, whereas the DMK drew a blank in 2014.
As in the case of 2014, when the sum of vote shares of the two coalitions was around 71%, the combined strength of the alliances led by the DMK and the AIADMK this time too was about 70%. (the DMK+: 46.94% and the AIADMK+: 23.05%). Coincidentally, 10 years ago, the BJP was part of a front that included the DMDK, the MDMK, and the PMK. The alliance, as is now, had secured around 18.6% of the votes polled.
Published - June 09, 2024 01:09 am IST
