A comparative assessment of polling in the second phase of the general election on Friday, for 88 seats from 13 States/Union Territories, shows that high turnout (more than 70%) in the East and the North East (Assam, Manipur, Tripura, and West Bengal) and low turnout (less than 60%) in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have followed earlier trends. The turnout seems to be lower in Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan too, but any parsing of the reasons should wait for comprehensive post-poll surveys. That said, voter turnout has indeed reduced in comparison to 2019 in the first phase as well, compelling the Election Commission of India to look into whether the heat-wave conditions in many States were responsible. That could be a factor but one cannot rule out the notion that voters seem to be less compelled about their choice this time in comparison to 2019. Considering the fact that the BJP won a comfortable majority and its highest vote share in 2019 coinciding with the higher voter turnout, a lower turnout could be a sign of worry for it, even if, conventionally, a higher turnout has generally been a message about anti-incumbency in earlier polls before the BJP became the pole of the Indian party system.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the lynchpin of the BJP, and whose leadership of the party and the Union government is marshalled by the party as a key campaigning tool, had taken recourse to coarse communal rhetoric and criticising the Congress party’s manifesto. This suggests a two-pronged ploy. To whip up the sentiments of the ardent support base of the party who believe in the Hindutva agenda and to seek higher participation in voting by these sections. And, to discredit the Congress’s studied pivot to the agenda of social justice (although it hinged on an idea of recognition made possible by a caste census) and expanded welfare (through neo-Keynesian policies). The Congress lost its base in the Hindi heartland to the parties that favoured “Mandal” politics of intermediate and lower caste-based mobilisation and patronage since the 1990s. The BJP, then, successfully managed to upend these parties by mobilising sections of the OBCs, who felt left out due to the hegemony of select intermediate castes in the Mandal parties, besides using Hindutva to form a solid base of support. Now, the Congress seeks to revive itself in alliance with the Mandal parties who also seek a new resurgence. This has led the BJP and Mr. Modi to take to slandering the grand old party’s manifesto, particularly its emphasis on welfare, using familiar communal tropes. It remains to be seen whether the electorate will be emotionally swayed by this rhetoric or logically match it against its expectations of better jobs and livelihoods. This will decide the course of the election as it moves on to the next phases.