In modern India, no other political party has been as consistently aggressive as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been election after election in its campaign to expand its social base to all corners of India including Odisha. Not surprisingly, the State has witnessed a campaign blitzkrieg by the BJP’s tall leaders, which includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi who addressed a few meetings just a couple of days before May 13, the first phase of elections in Odisha.
With a consistent decline in its social base, with nine seats out of 147 (Assembly seats) and one in Parliament in the 2019 elections, the Congress party, traditionally a dominant force, has now become an insignificant player. On the other hand, the BJP’s voteshare is at 38.4%, winning eight out of 21 seats in the 2019 parliamentary election, while the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led by Naveen Patnaik has 42.8%, winning 12 seats. In the 2019 Assembly elections, the voteshare of the BJP was 32.49 % and that of the BJD, 44.71%, respectively. Clearly, the gap between the two parties is closing with each election.
Odisha’s leader
For years, Mr. Patnaik maintained that the BJD’s policy has been to keep an equi-distance from the BJP and the Congress. But his party has conducted itself more as a loyal coalition partner to the Modi government than being independent. Further, the two parties did have discussions to jointly fight the 2024 election, but it did not work out. Set up in 1997, the BJD did have an alliance with the BJP that ended prior to the 2009 elections — the reason being the role of Hindutva right groups in the anti-Christian violence in Kandhamal in 2008 that received global attention. In interviews to the media, an otherwise reticent Mr. Patnaik has often described the BJP to be a communal party, but has never defined his secular politics and positioning against the BJP. Most of the time, and despite being the Odisha chief minister for five terms,
Mr. Patnaik has behaved like an astute pragmatist and never nurtured national ambitions like many an Opposition Chief Minister elsewhere.
In his long rule of 25 years, there was the shadow of two super Chief Ministers: Pyari Mohan Mohapatra, till they fell out, and now V.K. Pandian who is leading the 2024 campaign. The BJD’s decision in 2009 to end the alliance with the BJP was taken by Pyari Mohan Mahapatra. Those who compare Mr. Patnaik’s style of governance with Mr. Modi’s Gujarat days (when Mr. Modi was the Chief Minister there), need to recognise the point that Mr. Modi never had a super Chief Minister.
No foothold for polarisation
For the BJP, the Hindu-Muslim polarisation strategy barely works in Odisha. At roughly around 2%, the Muslim population is insignificant and lives in a few clusters such as Cuttack, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, and Sungra. In Odisha, out of the 147 Assembly seats, not a single Assembly constituency is Muslim majority. Yet, during the 1980s and 1990s, there were four Muslim MLAs, who served as Ministers under the Congress and Janata party governments. But there have been none in Mr. Patnaik’s tenure.
Additionally, the cult of Jagannath that has been central to Odiya identity has restrained the Ram Mandir movement. Mr. Modi, Amit Shah and J.P. Nadda appear to have recognised this, which is why their speeches in the campaign had evocations of ‘Jai Jagannath’.
Several commentators, which includes Mr. Modi, are baffled by how Mr. Patnaik, despite not being well-versed with even elementary Odiya language, has been able to govern Odisha for so long. Odisha has had the distinction of many firsts. It was the first State in India to have been created on the basis of language. There was a separate Odisha movement which was triggered by a Bengali writer, who wrote ‘Odiya ekta Bhasha Naye (Odiya is not a language’). The separate Odisha movement was led by Madhusudan Das. Mr. Patnaik has pulled along because he is the son of Biju Patnaik, who, for many, is an iconic Oriya hero and epitome of Oriya nationalism. Those who are familiar with Biju Patnaik’s life during the 1940s and 1950s and his role in the Second World War or in the Indonesian freedom struggle at the behest of Jawaharlal Nehru, would be in awe of his stature. Given his contribution to the anti-Emergency movement in 1977 or his role in the installation of the V.P. Singh government in 1989, the description of his life as ‘dare-devil’ pilot (a line in The New York Times’s obituary) would be clearly inadequate.
The road ahead
The BJP’s campaign this time has been far more aggressive compared to what it was in 2014 and 2019. It means the BJP will see a rise in vote share, but how it would translate into seats is hard to predict. Naveen babu, as Mr. Patnaik is called, is likely to return as Chief Minister, but there could be the sword of Damocles — of instability — that might hang over his head. Given the BJP’s hunger for power, Odisha might go the Maharashtra way, creating conditions for the BJP’s hegemony.
Shaikh Mujibur Rehman is the author of Shikwa-e-Hind: The Political Future of Indian Muslims (2024) and teaches at Jamia Millia Central University, New Delhi
Published - June 01, 2024 12:08 am IST
