Considered as the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) bastion in South India, the Hindu Right’s rise in Karnataka is the result of a systematic ideological campaign over the years by its various organisations with a message, “Hindu Navella Ondu” (‘Hindus are one). As early as 1985, a “Dharm Sansad” in Karnataka’s Udupi town had called for the opening of the Babri Masjid. Muslims and Christians are described as “anya Bharatiya” (the other Indians), or “anya komu” (the other religion) in parts of local media. And yet, even as a bastion, Karnataka is no Gujarat, whose key architect has been Narendra Modi as its Chief Minister (2001-2014).
In 2008, the BJP formed the government in Karnataka for the first time, but the party became the second largest party in the Assembly as early as 1994, the year it won 40 seats, a few more than the Congress party’s 38 seats.
Disparate outcomes
In 2019 parliamentary elections, the BJP swept several States where it had lost in Assembly elections. In some instances, Indian voters do vote differently in Assembly elections as opposed to Parliament elections even if they are held simultaneously, as is the case in Odisha. But these disparate outcomes could also be partly explained by the nature of the BJP party’s organisations at the State-level — often shaped by its state leadership.
Neither B.S. Yediyurappa nor Basavaraj Bommai could be compared to Mr. Modi on this score, which explains the key difference. Furthermore, both Mr. Yediyurappa and Mr. Bommai are dynasts, and have never had political appeal in the Hindu Right social base the way Mr. Modi has.
Since the early days, the BJP wanted to be recognised as a party with a difference. In the ongoing election campaign, it is attacked by rival parties as a “40% commission party”.
When Mr. Yediyurappa faced the heat in the party for corruption charges in 2011, he chose to break away and formed a new party, Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP). In the 2013 Assembly election, the KJP received 9.8% of the vote share and six seats.
Mr. Yediyurappa’s decision to revolt and the exit by former Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar and former deputy Chief Minister Laxman Savadi demolishes one big myth about the BJP’s discipline. The party is indeed vulnerable to fragmentation like the Congress or the Left parties. It is, thus, possible that the BJP might split in the future, though it is not easy to predict precisely when or how. Moreover, the Congress party’s decision to embrace disgruntled BJP leaders to its fold opens possibilities for its saffronisation — similar to the Gujarat Congress, which led to further consolidation of the Hindu majoritarianism in the State. Just as the BJP is not a washing machine for corruption, the Congress party is not a washing machine for ideological purity.
The BJP has quite successfully returned to power recently in Gujarat, overcoming anti-incumbency, which it faces in Karnataka in a big way. Two things that helped the BJP in Gujarat may not work in Karnataka. Firstly, the Congress party gave a walk over to the BJP in Gujarat by orchestrating a self-destructive silent campaign, which is not the case with the D. Shivakumar-led Congress in Karnataka. Secondly, in Gujarat, Prime Minister Modi converted the entire campaign in a direct fight between him and the Opposition parties, which is not the case in Karnataka. Moreover, the Nandini-Amul controversy is spreading unprecedented anti-Gujarati sentiments as well.
Among others, the BJP grapples with anti-incumbency in two ways. First, by putting up fresh faces, thus pre-empting electoral backlash against its dented candidates. More than 60 new faces have been fielded this time. Secondly, by adopting a polarisation strategy to alter the anti-incumbency narrative. Ever since the incumbent BJP government grabbed power in July 2019, the communal pot in Karnataka has been boiling. This is particularly true after Mr. Bommai took over as Chief Minister in 2021.
Polarisation strategy
The decision to withdraw 4% reservation for Muslims is part of this strategy — together with hijab and other issues. And yet, this polarisation strategy might not be able to neutralise such a high anti-incumbency this time. Similar strategies were deployed in Himachal Pradesh in 2022 by making the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) a big issue during the campaign, but it did not work. Such failures in their strategy to fight anti-incumbency (for instance, in Himachal Pradesh in 2022 or Rajasthan in 2018) has not discouraged the BJP from deploying it time and again.
The BJP has, once again, chosen not to field a single Muslim candidate in Karnataka despite the Prime Minister’s announcement to reach out to Pasmanda Muslims recently. Such deliberate exclusion of Muslim candidates from the electoral fray by the BJP represents an institutionalised form of polarisation strategy.
On May 13, if the results help elect a non-BJP government in Karnataka, it is likely that the new government might not last a complete term and might meet the fate of the H.D. Kumaraswamy government. The message from the hegemonic BJP to Indian voters seems to be: no matter who you elect, the BJP would form the government.
This is a sad irony for a country that would like to be globally applauded as a mother of democracy.
Shaikh Mujibur Rehman teaches at the Jamia Millia Central University, New Delhi. He is the author of a forthcoming book, ‘Shikwa-e Hind: Political Future of Indian Muslims’
