U.S. President Joe Biden, faced with a growing number of naysayers on the United States-India relationship, has barely blinked in Washington’s assiduous courtship of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. With the Lok Sabha election handing Mr. Modi another victory, albeit a more modest one, the Biden administration — as well as a possible second Trump administration — believes that the U.S. calculation has been proven right.
Seeking a strong India relationship remains, despite a few vocal critics, one of a dwindling number of areas of bipartisan consensus in Washington. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, for all their intense disagreements, have both prioritised ties with Mr. Modi. And both Presidents place great faith in their own abilities to forge relationships in person.
Yet, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s loss of seats could also whittle down one of the arguments inside Washington for embracing Mr. Modi — that he is a historically powerful figure and the only game in town in India. The U.S. is keenly aware of Indian sensitivities and is unlikely to confront Mr. Modi forcefully on any areas of concern. But, Washington can now also begin to see a post-Modi era, and possibly a future relationship with an India less driven by Hindutva.
Under the American scanner
In the two years running up to the Lok Sabha elections, Washington has been prompted into some of its most serious reassessments of India’s role in the two and a half decades since Bill Clinton first extended a hand to New Delhi to cast aside Cold War estrangement. American support for India has been premised on the rosy idea that the world’s two largest democracies will inevitably see eye to eye on many of the top challenges — notably in how to handle an increasingly assertive China.
But new priorities have emerged other than China. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the Biden administration made it clear that it believed the world’s democracies belonged on Kyiv’s side. The Modi government would have none of it, reasoning that the war did not affect its core interests and that India could in fact benefit from its historic ties with Russia, including through energy imports that suddenly came with an attractive discount.
Even more serious in U.S. eyes was what U.S. prosecutors allege was an assassination plot directed by an Indian intelligence officer to kill a Khalistan activist on U.S. soil. While the Government of India denies its involvement — and some social media warriors have likened the operation to American attempts to strike militants overseas — it should have been no surprise that attempting to kill a U.S. citizen on U.S. soil would be a flashing red line for Washington. Yet, Mr. Modi can draw a lesson from the repercussions imposed by the U.S. — effectively none. Top U.S. officials have warned India of the consequences of a repeat plot. But while the U.S. was quietly investigating, Mr. Biden welcomed Mr. Modi to a dinner of saffron-infused risotto during a state visit. One of the biggest takeaways from Mr. Modi’s visit — the sale of $4 billion in top-of-the-line Predator drones to India — is going ahead after the Biden administration reassured concerned lawmakers that India was taking the probe seriously. While the situations are not completely parallel, Mr. Modi can also look to Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whom Mr. Biden once vowed to isolate but is now courting as part of a Middle East diplomatic push.
Outreach to the Global South
The reason is simple. The U.S. wants something from Saudi Arabia. What does the U.S. want from India? The Gaza and Ukraine crises show that Washington badly needs friends in the Global South, and India is ideally placed. India remains the only country that rivals the size of China, which the Biden administration’s national security strategy identifies as the only long-term competitor to U.S. leadership.
Trump versus Biden
On the surface, a return of Mr. Trump would seem only to bring the U.S. and India closer. Mr. Trump has little interest in lecturing on rights and has vowed a no-holds-barred campaign against China. Mr. Trump visited India on what would turn out to be his last international trip as President due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Mr. Modi in Gujarat gave him exactly what he craved — a vast, adoring crowd.
But Mr. Trump is famously fickle. He could just as soon cut a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as he did early in his term. Bob Lighthizer, Mr. Trump’s trusted trade aide, has already set his sights on India over market access. And, while democratic ideals may not matter to Mr. Trump, he is masterfully in tune with his base. He suddenly slapped sanctions on Turkey after the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally detained an American pastor who had emerged as a cause célèbre for evangelical Christians. It is not implausible to imagine an incident in India, perhaps involving a missionary, that would lead Mr. Trump to butt heads with Mr. Modi.
As for Mr. Biden, he has often projected a message that he needs Mr. Modi more than Mr. Modi needs him. After the Lok Sabha election, Mr. Biden need no longer see Mr. Modi as the be-all-end-all of India. Rather, Mr. Biden can treat Mr. Modi as a partner with whom to do business in targeted, at times incremental, ways. Not unlike how India regards its relationship with the U.S.
Shaun Tandon is the AFP State Department Correspondent
