There has been a constant erosion in the political fortunes of the parties that have aligned with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the last three decades. There has been a discernible transfer of dividends to the BJP and losses for those which have provided support.
A historical look documents the inherent one-way traffic in this political relationship. Let us look at the status of the two of the earliest alliance partners of the BJP, i.e., the Shiv Sena (SS) in Maharashtra and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab. The Sena with 15 Lok Sabha seats, and the SAD with eight were the only partners to back the BJP when it staked claim to form the government under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1996. Despite ruling for 13 days the BJP could not attract any new political alliances, which led to the formation of the United Front government, led by H.D. Deve Gowda. The Sena and the BJP came together in the 1984 Lok Sabha election. The alliance was cemented on the Hindutva fulcrum in 1989.
In Maharashtra, Punjab and Assam
The demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992 and the ruinous Mumbai riots in 1992-93 paved the way for the first Sena-BJP government in Maharashtra in 1995, with Manohar Joshi of the Sena as Chief Minister. The accepted formula was that the Sena would call the shots in Maharashtra and that the BJP could determine the political trajectory on the national turf. But soon, the BJP grew ambitious. It jettisoned the equation and demanded more seats for itself in the 2014 Assembly elections.
When the Sena refused to concede the primacy in the State, the alliance broke. The BJP formed the government in Maharashtra, with Devendra Fadnavis as Chief Minister, which accelerated the downward slide. When the Sena managed to gain power by forming a post-poll alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Indian National Congress in 2019, the BJP ensured a split in both the regional parties, namely the NCP and the Sena, and had their symbols frozen. The popular term ‘Operation Lotus’ used by television channels, really meant the one way shift of strengths from other parties to the BJP.
The SAD had been a member of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance since 1996. The alliance came to power in Punjab in 2007. It created history in the State in 2012 when the combine could buck anti-incumbency, to get a consecutive term. But the SAD which prides itself as the spokesperson of farmers was not consulted by the BJP before the introduction of the controversial farm laws. The alliance broke in 2020, and in the 2022 State Assembly elections, the SAD got just three seats in a legislature of 117 seats, paving the way for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to form the government. In order to revive its fortunes, the SAD decided to fight on its own in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and has won one seat. The SAD, due to its ill-fated alliance with the BJP, was forced to concede political space to new entrant AAP, and also help the Congress in a revival of its political fortunes.
The story of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is illustrative as the Assam party has been in on-alliance-off-alliance mode with the BJP since 2001. The AGP was forced to witness one of its important leaders, Sarbananda Sonowal, being absorbed into the BJP and being anointed as the Chief Minister. He is now a part of the BJP-led NDA’s Union Cabinet. The AGP was the dominant player when the alliance was established, but within two decades, the BJP has become the key player. In the just concluded Lok Sabha election, the BJP has won nine seats while the AGP won just one, out of the 14 seats in Assam.
The case of other regional parties
This story has regional variations when it comes to the fortune of four other regional political parties: the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagam (AIADMK). These parties extended vital numerical support to the BJP in its push to implement several laws that were widely perceived as partisan in character. Most of these Bills undermined the federal balance. It is vital to remember the BJP was able to pass many Bills in Lok Sabha on account of its own majority. However, in the Rajya Sabha, these regional parties played the key role to pass the Bills as the BJP did not have adequate numbers.
What is the status of these parties now? How did the BJP treat them? Barring the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), which has mastered the trapeze act with aplomb, all the others are now non-entities.
In Odisha, out of the 21 seats, the BJP has won 20 seats while the BJD has no representation.
In Telangana, out of the 17 seats, the BJP has eight seats and the BRS has zero. In Andhra Pradesh, out of the 25 seats, the BJP-led NDA (the Telugu Desam Party 16, BJP 3 and the Janasena Party, 2) has won 21 while the YSRCP has been reduced to four seats.
In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK is splintered into three factions. While the Edappadi K. Palaniswami faction has the official recognition and the poll symbol, the other two factions led by O. Panneerselvam and T.T.V. Dhinakaran are posing a stiff challenge to the official faction of the AIADMK in southern Tamil Nadu. The reality is that all these three factions have drawn a blank despite their blind support to the BJP’s centralisation spree undertaken through hurried legislative moves in Parliament. The BJD, the BRS, the YSRCP and the AIADMK have lost their respective States in the bargain.
And, the fate of Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is a poignant story. It shared power with the BJP a few months before the dramatic watering down of Article 370. Now it is without representation in Parliament.
It is evident that the BJP takes over the strengths of the parties it allies with and transfers its own weakness onto them. Its embrace is often seen as a fatal embrace. One is only left with a question. Can the JD(U) and the TDP now escape the deadly embrace?
A.S. Panneerselvan is a fellow of the Roja Muthiah Research Library, Chennai
