Game Pass to reach 200 million subscribers by 2034, analyst predicts, double MSFT's forecast

Xbox Game Pass will grow nearly 500% across the next 10 years, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter predicts.

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Analysts often ponder their orbs in private, but rarely do we see ambitious forecasts given to everyday consumers by key industry figures. Michael Pachter is one such figure, and he's gained fame through his very public predictions. Pachter's latest estimate is nonetheless eye-opening: According to the analyst, Xbox Game Pass will break 200 million subscribers by the year 2034.

"In the next 10 years, I think it'll go to 200 million. I'll make that bet with anybody. I promise I'll pay. It will be 200 million in the next 10 years--they are that committed to it," Pachter said in the latest episode of his question-and-answer talk show, Pachter Factor, on SIFTD Games.

"I don't think new subscribers have dried up. Come back and ask me the same question a year from now once they have Call of Duty on there."

If that estimate sounds quite bullish, that's because it is. There's a lot to go over here.

First up, let's take a look at Microsoft's own internal estimates. According to accidentally-leaked materials from the FTC v MSFT federal trial in July 2023, Microsoft expects Xbox Game Pass to grow to around 110 million subscribers by 2030.

This figure includes the weighted effect of Activision Blizzard King games and content on Game Pass.

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Editor's Note: The above figures are estimates that are based on a leaked Xbox slide presentation from Fiscal Year 2022, which is from July 2021 - June 2022. Microsoft is currently in its Fiscal Year 2024 timeline. The information may be outdated and may not reflect the newer 10-year streaming deals that Microsoft has made with NVIDIA and even Ubisoft in an attempt to appease regulators in the Microsoft-Activision merger.

It's also likely that the 110 million figure includes the conversion from Xbox LIVE -> Xbox Game Pass Core, which represents some ~11 million subscribers. Xbox LIVE Gold had 46 million subscribers as of 2020, and the conversion isn't 1:1 (there are still XBL Gold subscribers, for instance).

Xbox gaming CEO Phil Spencer has commented on the leaks, saying that: "So much has changed."

For reference, Xbox Game Pass currently only has 34 million subscribers. To hit Pachter's estimate, in 10 years Microsoft would have to secure 166 million extra subscribers. That seems like a stretch even with the billion-dollar arsenal of Call of Duty, Warcraft, and Candy Crush.

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Pachter's estimate overshoots Microsoft's own internal forecasts by 90 million subscribers, and the discrepancy implies Microsoft would have to gain these 90 million extra subscribers across a 4-year span, assuming it hits the 110 million subscriber milestone by 2030.

Looking closer at the estimates, we see that Microsoft expects most of its Xbox Game Pass growth to take place on consoles. As of April 2022, there were 21.9 million Game Pass subscribers on console. Microsoft expects this to grow to 58 million by 2030, representing a mighty +36.1 million subscriber increase.

The inclusion of ABK games will undoubtedly boost Game Pass subscriber counts, but by how much remains to be seen, especially given that Sony will also be able to launch Call of Duty games as day one releases on PlayStation Plus. This right was part of the terms of the 10-year deal that Sony signed with Microsoft to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation platforms.