Glacier Invest

The two-pot retirement reform is not expected to have an inflationary impact in 2024 under its moderate withdrawal (deemed more likely) and high withdrawal scenarios. The reform is expected to have a minor inflationary effect in 2025 and 2026. The SARB’s core model showed that this could result in higher interest rates of 20 basis points in 2025 and 40 basis points in 2026 under the moderate withdrawal scenario. In the higher withdrawal scenario, interest rate increases of 60 basis points in 2025 and 90 basis points in 2026 are expected. Source: SARB, Momentum Investments #GlacierInvest #TwoPotRetirementSystem #TwoPotWithdrawal

China’s share of US imports has declined since 2018 on a rolling three-year basis, from a high of 21% to about 15%. Shorter-term downside risks to the economy from trade restrictions could collide with an already slowing economy and a consumer weakened by the cumulative effect of price inflation.    Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Investment Institute (Data as of 30 June 2024)   #USImports #China

This #WomensMonth, we had the privilege of chatting with Preanka Naidoo, Portfolio Manager at Glacier Invest. She reflected on how her investment goals have evolved since the start of her journey, offering a unique perspective on growth and change. Quote: “What has become exceptionally key for me is walking a path of investment education with my clients.”

As part of our #WomensMonth celebration, we had the honour of connecting with Lilian Lerm, Co-Deputy CIO at Sanlam Investments Multi-Manager. She shared her expertise and offered invaluable advice to young women starting their investment journeys. Quote: “You need to ensure that you figure out what you’re powerful at, build a brand for yourself and always act in accordance with that brand.” 

To celebrate #WomensMonth, we had the pleasure of connecting with Lisa Bezuidenhout, Head of Enablement at Sanlam Investments Multi-Manager. She imparted her wisdom and valuable advice to young women embarking on their investment journeys.   Quote: “Bad investments are almost as good as good investments. Good investments generate returns, bad investments generate good learnings.”

Implied US Fed Fund Futures have started to price in the probability of deeper rate cuts over a shorter period, and a lower terminal rate following the Jackson Hole Symposium. Source: Yardeni Research, LSEG. #GlacierInvest #FederalFundRate

In celebration of #WomensMonth, we had the pleasure to connect with Pearlene Govender, CFA , Head of Global Manager Research at Sanlam Investments Multi-Manager. She shared her insights and reflected on how her approach to investing has evolved over the years. Quote: “I think collectively as women, we need to take charge, stand on our own two feet and claim our liberty.”

The FTSE/JSE All Share Index hit an all-time high after improved local and global risk sentiment. South African equities continue to trade at a discount relative to emerging market peers.   Source: Moneyweb, JSE, Bloomberg   #ALSI #SAEquities

The last significant market downturn occurred in the third quarter of 2022, when the S&P 500 fell by about 17%. Until recently, this seemed to be unfolding quite smoothly, with the S&P 500 rising by 49% since October 2022. Source: Datastream, Private Clients Research #S&P500 #MarketDownTurn #GlacierInvest

During Q2, the European Central Bank cut rates for the first time since 2019, leaving room for more rate cuts to follow. Locally, the announcement of the GNU following the SA election results provided SA citizens with hope for a more stable economy. In case there are some market events you missed during Q2 2024, please refer to the below image as a refresher. #GlacierInvest #EventsThatMovedTheMarketQ2