USA 🇺🇸 government interest expense up 2x past 5 years…. brace for a bumpy ride ahead!
🔹 US Treasury’s annual interest expense has surged past $1.2 trillion as of 2024 which is twice the level of five years ago, indicating a rapid increase in debt servicing costs.
🔹 From 1988 to the mid-2000s, interest payments remained relatively stable, fluctuating around $0.4-$0.6 trillion. A slow increase occurred post-2015, but the steepest rise started around 2021-2022, aligning with rising interest rates and increased government borrowing
🔹 A dramatic spike is visible from 2022 onward, likely due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes to combat inflation and a higher national debt burden, leading to increased debt servicing costs.
🔹 Higher debt costs may (will) limit government spending on critical areas like infrastructure, defense, and social programs
🔹 The #government may need to either increase taxes, cut spending, or issue more debt, which could have long-term economic consequences
🔹 As the U.S. government issues more debt to cover rising interest expenses, bond supply increases, pushing Treasury yields higher
🔹 Investors will demand higher returns to compensate for rising risks, making borrowing more expensive for both the government and corporations (banks are happier)
🔹 Persistent high yields on shorter-term Treasuries relative to longer-term bonds could keep the #yieldcurve inverted, a classic recession signal (Don’t say the “R” word)
🔹 Potential for a #selloff on equity, especially growth stocks, particularly tech companies, may suffer the most since their #valuations are based on future cash flows (Nasdaq is gonna get rockier)
🔹 Higher Treasury yields would make U.S. assets more attractive, leading to #capital inflows into the U.S., boosting the dollar (USD). This could hurt emerging markets that rely on #dollar denominated debt, making #repayments more expensive
🔹 Investors might pull money out of riskier #emergingmarkets in favor of higher-yielding, safer U.S. Treasuries. A stronger USD will reduce global liquidity, tightening financial conditions worldwide (When the US gets a cold, the world gets a sniffle 🤧)
🔹 If interest expenses keep rising, the Fed may have less room to cut rates even in a downturn. A prolonged period of high interest rates could increase the risk of a #recession
❓In the near term #bitcoin prices may suffer but in the mid term we could see a massive demand surge as a #hedge against government debt instability and fiat devaluation (both from retail and #institutional investors) but a lot of it will depend on whether it continues evolving into a digital gold-like #storeofvalue rather than a speculative asset