InvestSense

What’s next for the global economy? Director Jonathan Ramsay and Economist Andrew Hunt explore the potential implications of Trump’s U.S. election win, covering: Global and Geopolitical Shifts: The election could reshape globalisation and geopolitics, impacting Europe’s defence priorities, Asia’s economic strategies, and the balancing act for Australia and New Zealand between U.S. security alliances and economic ties with China. Shifts in U.S. Policy: With new appointments expected, we may see increased government borrowing, fresh tariffs, and the risk of a global recession by mid-2026. Key Indicators to Monitor: Watch for changes in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and inflation expectations—critical signals of how these shifts could unfold. Listen to the full discussion here: https://lnkd.in/gMT4h_8F

Last week, we celebrated 10 years of InvestSense. When we started a decade ago, we were a small team with big ideas about managed accounts. SMAs were just emerging, and the industry was still discovering its potential. Fast forward through an evolving advice landscape, a global pandemic, and a shifting economy, we’ve continued to grow alongside our clients. To mark the occasion, we hosted a Fund Manager Walking Tour with some of our clients. It was a fantastic opportunity to connect, give clients a behind-the-scenes look at some of the fund managers we partner with.  A big thank you to Christian Baylis (Fortlake Asset Management), Richard Quin (Bentham Asset Management), Nick Guidera (Eley Griffiths Group), Paul Moore (PM Capital), and Ian K. for making the day a success. To our clients, fund managers, platform providers, team, and partners: we truly wouldn’t be here without you. Thank you for the trust and support that have brought us this far. Here’s to the next 10 years of partnerships.

As property prices continue to soar and the demand for sustainable energy rises, where do the opportunities lie? In the fifth part of our 10-Year Series with Hunt Economics, Jonathan Ramsay & Andrew Hunt explore themes 9 and 10. ‘The Anglo-Saxon Property Reset’ and ‘Productivity and Energy that Doesn’t Cost the Earth.’ Anglo-Saxon Property Reset: High property prices are limiting growth and deepening inequality. While deflation or wage inflation might offer short-term fixes, the best long-term solution is productivity-driven real wage growth, balancing the property market without the negative side effects. Productivity and Energy that Doesn’t Cost the Earth: Solving today’s economic challenges requires sustainable energy solutions and real productivity gains. With key factors like technological innovation and deregulation at play, companies that can lead in these areas offer great long-term potential. These themes go hand-in-hand. Productivity growth will not only support the property market but also ensure sustainable energy drives economic growth for decades to come. Listen to the full conversation here: https://lnkd.in/g4CZita3 

How are prolonged low interest rates and economic disparities reshaping investment strategies across Japan and the Eurozone? In part four of our series on the ten critical themes shaping the global economic landscape, Director Jonathan Ramsay and Economist Andrew Hunt explore ‘Japan - Euthanasia of the Saver’ and ‘Eurozone Competitiveness Differentials.’ Japan’s extended low-interest rate environment and ongoing quantitative easing policies continue to erode the real value of savings, affecting household behaviour and the economic structure. Despite the Bank of Japan’s intentions to tighten, the Ministry of Finance may continue managing public debt through inflation. Meanwhile, the Eurozone faces widening competitiveness gaps. Southern European countries like Spain and Italy are gaining momentum, while traditional powerhouses such as Germany may face challenges ahead. While opportunities may arise in these markets, careful country selection is crucial. The takeaway? Active management and a selective, flexible approach are key. The divergence between countries and sectors requires detailed analysis and nimble positioning rather than relying on broad, index-based strategies. Get the investment implications here: https://lnkd.in/guaETQaw 

In the third instalment of our exploration into ten critical themes shaping the global economic landscape, Jonathan Ramsay and Economist Andrew Hunt discuss two interconnected themes: 'The Future Ain't What It Used to Be' and 'Geopolitics'. Theme 5 - The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Highlights growing concerns in developed economies about stagnating income growth and shifting consumer behaviour. With 20 years of stagnant real incomes in countries like New Zealand, Australia, and the UK, investors must be cautious about consumer-dependent sectors. Theme 6 - Geopolitics: Geopolitical competition is expected to intensify without direct military conflict. Instead, power plays will manifest through propaganda, economic influence, and capital flows. Key Takeaways for Investors: As Hunt suggests, we may be entering a period of regime change that could be recognised as pivotal when viewed from the vantage point of 2030 or beyond. This transition will likely involve not just monetary policy shifts, but also political, productivity, and property market changes. For investors, the key is to stay adaptable, seek opportunities in countries embracing reform and productivity growth, and prepare for a world where economic performance and policy approaches may vary significantly between nations. While challenges abound, there are also opportunities for those who can navigate this shifting landscape effectively. Read the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/gRG6yyQf

How should portfolios prepare for growing liquidity volatility and hidden leverage in private credit? In part two of our exploration into the ten critical themes shaping the global economic landscape, Director Jonathan Ramsay and Economist Andrew Hunt examine two interconnected trends: the QE Addiction and the Non-Bank Credit Boom. Governments’ growing reliance on Quantitative Easing (QE) and the rapid expansion of non-bank credit are reshaping markets and presenting both opportunities and challenges for investors. Key takeaways: - Keep a close watch on liquidity flows, as they are now driving market volatility more than underlying fundamentals. - Exercise caution with non-bank credit and private markets, where liquidity risks are rising. - Expect potential long-term inflationary pressures as governments continue to depend on QE. Read more to explore how these themes could impact portfolios in the short, medium, and long term. https://lnkd.in/gs34u4QT 

Ten Economic and Market Themes Shaping the Next Decade with Economist Andrew Hunt Hunt Economics has identified ten critical themes set to shape the global economy in the coming years. As InvestSense approaches its 10-Year anniversary, we’re diving into these themes to uncover the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. In the first of a five part series, Andrew Hunt and Director Jonathan Ramsay discuss two key themes: "China's Minsky Moment" and "Asia's Broken Model," and what they mean for investments in the near, medium, and long term. Last week, Hunt confidently discussed the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut, even before it was officially announced. This confidence underscores a growing belief that the global economy is weakening faster than expected, with China's struggles playing a central role. That's why our thematic journey begins in Asia. From China’s credit crunch to the unsustainable Northeast Asian development model, significant shifts are on the horizon—bringing both risks and opportunities for investors worldwide. Get the insights here:  https://lnkd.in/gr74RHkz Next week, we’ll explore the potential impact on the highly leveraged U.S. financial sector and the likely monetary response. Sign up for our newsletter to get early access to the discussion. A special thank you to Andrew for spending time with our clients this week to discuss what the future may hold.

We’re excited to welcome Daniel Nagle as our new Business Development Manager for New South Wales. With nearly a decade of experience in Financial Planning and Asset Management, Daniel brings a rich background of knowledge and expertise to our team. Originally from Ireland, where he spent over seven years as a Financial Adviser, Daniel moved to Sydney in 2023 and has since transitioned into Business Development. His deep understanding of the financial advice landscape allows him to provide the exceptional service and support that advisers need to help their clients succeed. "Daniel’s background as a financial adviser, combined with his passion for the advice industry makes him a great fit for our team," says Paul Carrington. "We’re thrilled to have him on board as we continue to enhance our support for advisers in New South Wales."

Leadership in times of volatility: geopolitics, inflation and what it means for investors. At the recent H&B Wealth Symposium in Perth, The Hon. Arthur Sinodinos AO shared his insights with Director Jonathan Ramsay on how geopolitical factors could impact markets and portfolios in the coming years. It’s important to stay alert but not alarmed. For Australian investors heavily exposed to domestic banks and China-dependent materials, the shifting geopolitical landscape presents both risks and opportunities. It’s crucial to stress test portfolios for various scenarios, diversify concentrated sector exposures and engage active managers to navigate these uncertainties. In our latest article, we explore 7 key themes from the conversation and how they could shape investment strategies moving forward. Get the insights here: https://lnkd.in/g_-Yw3mA Thank you to Adele Brown and Lucy Hannemann for curating such a compelling program. We look forward to joining you in Bowral next month to discuss the Global Equity Showdown between Japan and the U.S.

Why you can’t rely on the past to predict what’s next... Yesterday, Director & Portfolio Manager Fil Andronaco, CFA joined the H&B Wealth Symposium in WA to explore the structural changes expected in the Australian stock market over the next decade. His presentation, 'Tectonic Shifts: A Decade of Change Ahead for the ASX,' highlighted: Historical Performance vs. Future Dynamics: While Australian equities have delivered strong historical returns (10.8% per year), shifting economic and market dynamics suggest that future performance may not follow the same path. Challenges for Key Sectors: The dominance of banks and commodity companies, which make up 50% of the Australian stock market, has been a cornerstone of past growth. However, these sectors now face challenges in maintaining their historical growth rates, meaning other sectors will need to shoulder more of the growth burden in the years ahead. Yet, many of these growth sectors already have higher valuations, which may limit their ability to deliver significant upside Scenario Thinking for the Next Decade: By evaluating future scenarios—bear, base, and bull cases—expected returns range from 4.7% to 9.7%, falling short of past trends. Investors will need to adjust their expectations and strategies accordingly, as the reliance on a smaller portion of the market for growth and challenges in current valuations signal significant changes ahead. Thank you to Lucy Hannemann and Adele Brown for hosting a wonderful event.