European Policy Centre

⚡ FLASH ANALYSIS Le Pen's sentence will lead to greater polarisation in France 🖊️ By Eric Maurice The sentence handed to far-right leader Marine Le Pen on 31 March may prevent her from becoming France’s next president, but it is also likely to add to the political instability and uncertainty in the EU’s second-largest country. Read the analysis in full: https://lnkd.in/djkaYWzb

📢 Policy Dialogue | The war in Gaza: Any paths towards a long lasting ceasefire?  🗓️ Thursday, 03 April 2025| 16:00 – 17:00   📍 Online    Join the EPC for an online Policy Dialogue on the latest developments in Gaza and their broader regional implications. This discussion will examine the breakdown of the ceasefire and the prospects for sustainable peace. The conversation will also assess the impact of the recent protests in Israel and Gaza as well as the broader trajectory for Gaza’s political and humanitarian future. Furthermore, the event will analyse the US approach to Gaza in the context of its policy in the Middle East and the role of the European Union in responding to the crisis and shaping diplomatic efforts in the region.    🎙️ Speakers:  🔵 Amjad Iraqi, Israel/Palestine Consultant, International Crisis Group  🔵 Dana Stroul, Research Director, The Washington Institute For Near East Policy  🔵 Silvia Colombo, Researcher and Faculty Advisor, NATO Defense College & Associate Fellow, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI)    Moderator:  🔵 Mihai Chihaia, Policy Analyst, the European Policy Centre    Register here 👉 https://lnkd.in/dkkea3Ng  

🗎 Discussion Paper | How to Spend It: European defence for the age of mass precision ✍️ By Chris Kremidas-Courtney (Chris K.) The suspension of US military assistance to Ukraine and calls for increased European self-reliance are forcing Europe to urgently redefine its defence strategy. The European Union’s ReArm EU plan seeks to mobilise €800 billion in national defence spending to meet these challenges. Modern warfare has entered into an era of mass precision, where forces can achieve the effects of massed firepower through distributed, AI-enabled, and highly accurate weapons systems. Ukraine’s innovative use of drone swarms and precision strikes against Russian forces has demonstrated this shift.   How can Europe prepare for this strategic reality? Read on our website 👉 https://lnkd.in/dx_6Mi99

🔴 The Language of Power podcast | How to ensure that justice isn’t the first casualty of a ceasefire in Ukraine This week’s episode of the podcast tackles the topic of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the war crimes committed by Putin’s forces, and efforts to hold those responsible to account. Featuring:  🎙️ Paul Taylor, Senior Visiting Fellow in the Europe in the World Programme, EPC - Podcast Host  🎙️ Andriy Kostin, Ukraine’s former prosecutor-general    🎧 Listen now and stay ahead of the debate: https://lnkd.in/dJgDFpXh  

📢 NEW COMMENTARY:    Why Europe needs a common market for defence 🖋️ By Richard Whitman It’s time for the EU to move beyond coordination among member states and work towards a truly common #European defence market. The ReARM Europe Plan and SAFE lay important groundwork to boost industrial production, replenish stockpiles and reduce external #dependencies. However, current plans risk drawing lines of division by excluding key players, such as the UK, with major defence industries and shared #security priorities. If Europe is serious about strengthening its defence and achieving strategic autonomy, it must harness all of the continent’s potential. Read the full commentary to see why a broader, more inclusive approach is the only way forward. 👉 https://lnkd.in/dv5G9H48 

🔴 To The Point | ❌ Expelling Hungary from the EU ✍️ By Fabian Zuleeg Viktor Orbán has opposed the #EU majority on many critical issues while promoting his brand of illiberal democracy. With the rise of Trump, he has intensified his rhetoric, diverging from the current consensus to promote a neo-nationalist, intolerant and #populist Europe. Hungary’s government is now openly behaving like the enemy within, not least when it comes to Russia. As a result, many are calling for Hungary to be expelled from the EU, rightly arguing that, for critical questions, Hungary shouldn’t have a seat at the table, let alone a vote or veto. Difficult choices must be made, and the likes of Orbán will hinder progress and ambition, and Trump might use Hungary as his Trojan Horse. But is it right to punish populations for the misdeeds of leaders? And will other member states even consider it? In any case, expelling a country is far easier said than done. There are no legal provisions for this, and Hungary shows no willingness to leave. So, realistically, exit is improbable. Moreover, those calling for draconian action now, such as withdrawing #voting rights, based on Orbán’s blockage of progress in European integration, fail to show how such reactions would be justified under current EU law – political consensus is not a legal obligation. However, other member states can decide what should be done in parallel to the usual EU funding and processes, e.g. through a supragovernmental avantgarde, to exclude those unwilling to take part, removing their ability to block progress. Read on our website 👉 https://lnkd.in/dpyTXxQM

📢 NEW COMMENTARY: Returns under the spotlight: Towards an effective common EU system? 🖋️ By Alberto Horst Neidhardt With its proposal for a Return Regulation, the European Commission aims to speed up returns and harmonise standards and practices. However, controversy around initiatives such as ‘return hubs’ distracts from key practical and political considerations, including the resources needed to ensure the reform’s #implementation, and its coherence with the updated rules governing the Common European Asylum System (CEAS) and the #Schengen area. Can the Commission’s proposal achieve its ambition of creating a common EU return system, or will it instead lead to further fragmentation? The EPC is organising a policy dialogue on the EU’s approach on returns this afternoon. Learn more about it here: https://lnkd.in/gdjfiYTn Read the full #commentary here: https://lnkd.in/dSfHTH3P

President of the European Council António Costa spoke at a Thought Leadership Forum organised by the EPC yesterday, where he outlined his vision of how the EU can emerge from the current crises it faces with renewed strength. “Europe is a peace project, but peace without defence is an illusion,” said Costa in his speech. He added that “Europe’s security starts in Ukraine. That is why we need to continue to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukrainians. To create the conditions for a just, comprehensive and lasting peace in Ukraine and in Europe.” In opening remarks, Herman Van Rompuy, President Emeritus of the European Council, stressed that: “The future of Ukraine is of existential significance to the EU. If we cannot guarantee Ukraine's freedom and sovereignty, the road is open to an even bigger conflict.” Reflecting on the discussion, EPC Chief Executive Fabian Zuleeg remarked: “The speech by António Costa at the European Policy Centre showed the core threats the EU faces in this challenging era. It recognised the importance of security, and in particular Ukraine. But the question remains whether we will be ambitious enough to address the scale and scope of the watersheds we are facing, and whether we can do it together. Decisive steps forward are possible but it will require a new political architecture for Europe and the creation of coalitions of the willing that can advance faster than the rest.” Following the Thought Leadership Forum, a closed-door meeting between Costa, Van Rompuy, and members of the EPC management and board took place. 🔗 Watch the full speech here: https://lnkd.in/dUzb9yH5 Photo Credits: European Union

President of the European Council António Costa spoke at a Thought Leadership Forum organised by the EPC yesterday, where he outlined his vision of how the EU can emerge from the current crises it faces with renewed strength. “Europe is a peace project, but peace without defence is an illusion,” said Costa in his speech. He added that “Europe’s security starts in Ukraine. That is why we need to continue to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukrainians. To create the conditions for a just, comprehensive and lasting peace in Ukraine and in Europe.” In opening remarks, Herman Van Rompuy, President Emeritus of the European Council, stressed that: “The future of Ukraine is of existential significance to the EU. If we cannot guarantee Ukraine's freedom and sovereignty, the road is open to an even bigger conflict.” Reflecting on the discussion, EPC Chief Executive Fabian Zuleeg remarked: “The speech by António Costa at the European Policy Centre showed the core threats the EU faces in this challenging era. It recognised the importance of security, and in particular Ukraine. But the question remains whether we will be ambitious enough to address the scale and scope of the watersheds we are facing, and whether we can do it together. Decisive steps forward are possible but it will require a new political architecture for Europe and the creation of coalitions of the willing that can advance faster than the rest.” Following the Thought Leadership Forum, a closed-door meeting between Costa, Van Rompuy, and members of the EPC management and board took place. 🔗 Watch the full speech here: https://lnkd.in/dUzb9yH5 Photo Credits: European Union

📢STARTING NOW: António Costa at the EPC Europe: Strength through crisis - Thought Leadership Forum Europe is once again at a pivotal moment in its history and faces an urgent need to reinforce its defences. But how can the Union source strength through this crisis to build a more resilient and prepared future?   📺 Follow the livestream of our event to hear the speech of European Council President Costa, discussing how Europe can become stronger in this moment of crisis. The speech will be preceded by an introduction by Herman Van Rompuy and followed by a Q&A session with the audience moderated by President of the EPC Brigid Laffan. Watch online: https://lnkd.in/g8Q7nFH