NFG Partners SA

A lot to digest in markets as we approach the end of the year - U.S. elections, central bank easing and China stimulus, to name just a few! Hear from our Chief Investment Officer, Glenn Coxon, in his latest deep dive with Ipek Ozkardeskaya from Swissquote, as he breaks down the key market drivers for Q4 2024. Equities https://lnkd.in/e_ktX_yF FX & Commodities https://lnkd.in/e2kNqgyK

Plenty to digest in markets as we approach year-end— U.S. elections, central bank easing and China stimulus, to name just a few! Hear from our CIO, Glenn Coxon, in his latest sit-down with Swissquote, as he breaks down the key drivers for Q4. https://lnkd.in/esERN4Br

A very happy Fed day to all those who celebrate! Real coin toss today... We still believe 25bps makes the most sense, with both nowcast and Atlanta Fed data continuing to indicate a robust economy. Yesterday's retail sales also confirmed the signals from other recent high frequency data that, overall, the economy remains in reasonable shape. Additionally, the bond market rally and the 140bps drop in 2-year yields (now at 3.6% - chart below) have already contributed to an easing in financial conditions. However, following last week’s WSJ article from the usually well-informed “Fed Whisperer,” Nick Timiraos, markets quickly moved to price a 65% probability of a 50bps cut. Would the Fed risk disappointing with a smaller move now? While 50bps cuts outside of a recession are historically rare, there’s a case for frontloading a hawkish sounding 50bps given policy rates are clearly too high for this stage of the cycle. As always, Powell’s communication during the presser will be key. And keep an eye on the dots—June median projection was for a year-end funds rate of 5.1%!!

No long rambling post today ahead of what is the most eagerly anticipated NFP for a number for years, as markets brace for the beginning of the Fed's cutting cycle later this month. Simply to say that, in this context, the outcome today is somewhat binary: - An in line headline number, with unemployment unchanged = 25bps - Large downside surprise in headline and/or an uptick in unemployment = 50bps. The "whisper number" is for a slight beat vs. consensus estimate of 165k. Our view is that a print >140k and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% or below, will likely result in a 25bps cut. Good luck and happy Friday!

Today is finally Nvidia day! 👀 All eyes will be on the chipmaker as it reports earnings after the bell today —a release that has effectively turned into a macro event in itself. Following its last two earnings announcements, Nvidia’s market cap surged by $200bn. The options market is currently pricing in a 10% swing in either direction post-today's number, which translates to a potential $300bn move in either direction! Unsurprisingly, this has fuelled a surge in activity around both the 2x long and short NVDA ETFs, as noted below by Bloomberg. Given robust capital expenditures by the hyperscalers and recent strong earnings from TSMC, expectations are high for another blowout quarter from Nvidia. However, investor focus will likely be on forward guidance and any updates regarding supply chain constraints surrounding the new Blackwell chip. It's also worth noting that yesterday saw the second-lowest trading volume for the S&P 500 this year. With today's high-volatility event set against a backdrop of thin summer liquidity, it should make for an exciting end to the day 🙃

Consistent with our suggestion last week, Powell delivered a dovish message at Jackson Hole where he confirmed that rate cuts were imminent and expressed that, while he was comfortable that inflation is trending back to target, their focus is now firmly on the other side of the dual mandate - the U.S. labour market. On this point, Powell also struck a dovish tone, highlighting that the Fed’s tolerance for labour market cooling had reached its limits and any further weakening would be “unwelcome.” Powell gave little away as to the pace of cuts or indeed the final destination, re iterating that this will be dependent on incoming data. Here though, September’s FOMC will be helpful in giving us a chance to see an updated dot plot. What is abundantly clear however is that the market (like the Fed) has now firmly transitioned to being more concerned about downside risks to growth, rather than upside risks to inflation. Bottom line: Rate cuts will begin in September at a 25bps clip – barring a VERY significant downside surprise in next month’s jobs report. Given that Atlanta Fed GDPNow is tracking at ~3%, earnings for Q2 came in well and central banks still have plenty of room to ease, we would view this as mildly bullish for risk assets (noting though that starting valuations are already rich vs. historical averages) And would also push back on the market pricing of 100bps of easing before year end, given that the incoming data is softening but by no means soft.

Undoubtedly the main event for markets this week will be the 3-day annual conference at Jackson Hole, with Chair Powell set to deliver his speech on Friday. This year’s theme is "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy”, which should give Powell the opportunity to lean slightly dovish given that inflation is now firmly heading in the right direction, albeit not quite at 2% target yet. As we said last week, with inflation trending lower (outside of the sticky shelter component), the main focus is now on the other side of Fed’s dual mandate, the U.S. labour market. On this, we expect Powell retain maximum optionality on whether to go 25 or 50bps at September’s FOMC meeting and we still view the most likely path to 50bps cut as another downside surprise in the next jobs number. Expect Powell to re iterate here that the Fed stand by and ready to react to any material slowdown in the data - this following Daly’s comments last week: “We've now confirmed that the labour market is slowing, and it's extremely important that we not let it slow so much that it tips into a downturn" While markets are now pricing sequential cuts at the next five fed meetings (source, Bloomberg), we still consider this as somewhat hard to justify in the current climate, without another uptick in the unemployment rate in August’s NFP number.

We're pleased to announce that we have received the ARC Research 3D award as a recognition for our ongoing commitment to transparency, engagement and integrity (see more details below). https://lnkd.in/ehbQFBPk

U.S. CPI came in broadly in line with expectations yesterday, with only the shelter component (traditionally a lagging indicator) coming in hot. While not mission accomplished yet for the Fed, this is another indication of inflation moving in the right direction. Attention now turns to the other side of the Fed’s mandate today, the underlying strength of the economy, with both jobless claims and retail sales. A reasonable set of numbers here and the market will move to cement pricing of a 25bps cut vs. 50bps in September. We would still view the jobs market as the most important determinant for the size of any cut, and while our base case remains 25bps, another weaker than expected NFP number in September could tip the scales in favour of 50bps. Next week’s Jackson Hole symposium will also give Powell the chance lay the ground around Fed thinking here.

Today's initial jobless claims decreased by 17k to 233k in the week ended 3rd August, against consensus expectations for a more modest decrease. While high frequency data can be inherently noisy, this along with Tuesday's upside surprise in the ISM services number seems to have calmed markets after "Manic" Monday's sell off, which probably told us more about positioning and technicals (JPY carry unwind, CTA selling, thin August liquidity) than it did about the underlying health of the U.S. economy. Bottom line: the fundamental data (for now) is still consistent with an economy that's moderating but not heading for imminent recession. What we're watching next: July's CPI number: 14.08 Powell's Jackson Hole speech: 24.08 Nvidia earnings: 28.08