NUMEUS GROUP

The Future of Ethereum’s Data Availability: A Vision for L2s, L3s, and Global Stablecoin Payments As we stand on the brink of a decentralized financial revolution, the role of Ethereum as the backbone for Layer 2 (L2) and emerging Layer 3 (L3) solutions is more critical than ever. With the rapid proliferation of L2s and L3s poised to solve global payment challenges—especially through stablecoins—We're inspired by the transformative potential of Ethereum’s ecosystem. However, recent data and discussions reveal key considerations about costs, profitability, and the broader impact on ETH’s value. Here’s what we’re seeing: 🔹 The Cost of Ethereum as a Data Availability Solution: Over the past year, 15 major L2 networks generated $190 million in revenue, while paying Ethereum’s Layer 1 over $1,500 million in fees. This stark contrast highlights Ethereum’s role as a premium DA provider, with blobs charging $11.75 per MB last month—significantly higher than alternatives like Celestia at $0.07 per MB. As more L2s and L3s emerge to power stablecoin-driven global payments, finding the right price elasticity for Ethereum’s DA will be crucial to balance accessibility and revenue generation. 🔹 Impact on ETH Price: Ethereum’s economic sustainability hinges on capturing value from its scaling ecosystem. If L2s and L3s continue to rely on Ethereum for security and DA, increased demand for blobs and transaction fees could bolster ETH’s price by reinforcing its role as the "base money" of a multi-trillion-dollar blockchain economy. However, if DA costs rise too steeply, L2 profitability could erode, potentially driving some networks to cheaper alternatives, which might pressure ETH’s market cap unless alignment mechanisms are refined. 🔹 L2 Profitability in a Scaling World: Current data shows L2s like OP Mainnet pay $1 to Ethereum for every $11.90 earned, with an average L2 paying $1 for every $4.80. While L2s maintain healthy margins (e.g., 92.6% for Base over six months), off-chain costs and rising DA fees could challenge long-term profitability. As visionary L2s and L3s scale to enable frictionless, stablecoin-based payments worldwide, ensuring economic alignment with Ethereum will be key to sustaining innovation without sacrificing financial viability. The vision is clear: Ethereum can lead a global payment revolution through its L2 and L3 ecosystem, but it must strike a delicate balance. By optimizing DA pricing, fostering reciprocal value flow, and embracing community-driven roadmaps, we can ensure ETH remains the cornerstone of a scalable, secure, and prosperous decentralized future. growthepie has produced these amazing dashboards, go check it out!

Given $AAVE’s recent $1M weekly token buyback announcement, many are curious about the strategy’s broader impact across crypto, let's dig into this DeFi trend: 🔵 Widespread Adoption: Dozens of crypto projects, like AAVE, Nexo, MakerDAO, and BNB, have launched token buyback programs, aiming to reduce supply and potentially boost prices, with BNB’s quarterly burns being a standout example. 🔵 Short-Term Price Boosts: Historical data shows buybacks often trigger immediate price surges, such as MakerDAO’s MKR token jumping 28% in a week after its July 2023 buyback, though long-term gains are less consistent. 🔵 Mixed Long-Term Outcomes: While BNB’s burns correlate with price growth over time, Nexo’s token hit an all-time high post-buyback in 2021 but later declined, highlighting market volatility’s role. 🔵 No Guaranteed Wins: Buybacks don’t ensure sustained price rises—Tron’s 2018 burn of 1B TRX showed mixed results, as market conditions and project fundamentals often overshadow supply reductions. So, are token buybacks a smart DeFi move or a risky gamble?

Given the recent Bitcoin price drop, a lot of people have asked us what would happen to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet: Genius or Gamble? At Numeus, we’re a quant research shop obsessed with decoding complex financial strategies. MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin playbook is one of the wildest out there—here’s our data-driven take in bite-sized points: 🔸 No Panic Sell Trigger: With $7.2B in unsecured debt, there’s no magic Bitcoin price that forces liquidation of their 499,107 BTC (worth ~$40B today). 🔸 The $20K Stress Test: A sustained Bitcoin drop below $20K could squeeze them—holdings would fall to ~$9.4B, still above debt, but close enough to spark pressure as maturities loom (2027-2032). 🔸 Software Safety Net: Their software business churns out ~$475M in yearly cash flow, a quiet lifeline that cushions Bitcoin’s ups and downs. 🔸 The Capital Cycle: They raise funds via stock and debt to buy Bitcoin, pumping the stock price for more raises—a loop that’s brilliant until Bitcoin or markets falter. So, what’s the verdict (for now)? MicroStrategy has room to maneuver with debt years away and software as backup—but a brutal Bitcoin bear market could push this strategy to the edge. Sustainable innovation or high-stakes risk? We’re digging into the numbers to find out and post more later on.

If you are in Davos this week, say "Hi" to Barry Thomas and ask him about BTC compounding! It's worth it, I promise.

Meet our CEO Nobel Gulati at CfC St. Moritz this week! We are excited to share more on how we compound BTC for ourselves and others!

🎉 Happy 100k Bitcoin 🎉

We're proud to announce a landmark tripartite agreement further demonstrating our mission to enhance institutional crypto trading. This collaboration enables FORTEUS, under NUMEUS GROUP, to access OKX's advanced trading platform while maintaining assets in Komainu's regulated custody. Key features of this partnership: 1️⃣ Qualified custody services and cold storage by Komainu 2️⃣ 24/7 access to OKX's Liquid Marketplace 3️⃣ Off-exchange settlement capabilities 4️⃣ Tripartite mirroring solution 5️⃣ Seamless trading without constant asset movement Read the full announcement ➡️ https://bit.ly/3ZkOtAd

Our off-exchange solution with OKX has attracted a range of institutions seeking a secure and innovative way to trade OKX products. We are delighted to support FORTEUS, part of the NUMEUS GROUP, in accessing OKX's advanced trading platform, while their assets remain in secure and segregated custody with Komainu. Available 24/7, this solution offers clients optimised capital use through real-time collateral mirroring and intraday settlement modes, enhancing liquidity and trading efficiency. We are committed to building a high-quality network for our clients. Through our industry-leading custodial offering and OKX’s robust trading infrastructure, we are delivering a frictionless, segregated, and secure experience for our clients. If you'd like to hear more about our off-exchange solutions, please get in touch with the Komainu team: https://lnkd.in/dMHNT5jg

We are proud to announce a groundbreaking tri-party agreement between FORTEUS, OKX and Komainu, designed to set a new standard for secure and efficient asset management in the crypto space. This collaboration is a significant milestone, offering clients a uniquely robust trading environment. 🔵 Unmatched Security: Client assets are safeguarded with a regulated custodian, ensuring institutional-grade protection. 🔵 Round-the-Clock Market Access: Investors enjoy 24/7 trading opportunities through a seamless off-exchange settlement process. 🔵 Counterparty Risk Mitigation: By separating asset custody from trading, this solution directly addresses a key investor concern, providing confidence to access crypto's rich alpha potential. This innovative arrangement combines the best of regulated custody and trading efficiency, ensuring that our clients benefit from the highest standards of trust, security, and performance. At Forteus, we remain committed to building safer, smarter products that empower investors to thrive in the dynamic crypto markets. 🔗 Full announcement here: https://lnkd.in/dBFAuQcY

A New Era for Crypto The recent US presidential election could be a defining moment for the digital asset industry. With Donald Trump returning to the White House, here's what the crypto space might expect under this new administration: 🔹 Crypto-Friendly Regulation: Promises to make the US the “crypto capital of the world,” enabling innovation and institutional adoption. 🔹 Congressional Support: A pro-crypto Congress in a strong position to reshape blockchain policies, reversing years of restrictive approaches. 🔹 Greater innovation and adoption of blockchain technology and crypto assets in the US. 🔹 Traditional financial institutions likely to become more involved after having built capabilities behind the scenes It will likely be well into 2025 before relevant policies can be meaningfully debated in Congress, but the general direction is clear and a significant win for the industry. Markets have taken notice: 📈 New all-time highs: Bitcoin broke out of the range and surged past $90,000 (graph below), with Altcoins following as they stand to gain even more from constructive regulations in the future 💰 Institutional Momentum: Record-breaking inflows of $4.2B into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the 5 days since the election and record volumes traded on CME futures 🌟 What’s Next? Explore the full report below for insights into potential policy shifts, the process to get there, and what this means for the future of blockchain and crypto markets. Download the Full Report 👇 https://lnkd.in/d63KURjH