JOSE PAREJO & ASSOCIATES

At JOSE PAREJO & ASSOCIATES, we've assessed 6+ scenarios on how a potential 2024 Trump administration could impact global oil markets by increasing sanctions on Venezuela and easing them on Russia. This approach aligns with his past actions and could lead to outcomes ranging from Russia-U.S. cooperation to the formation of sanctions-resistant alliances and market fragmentation. Our analysis offers insight into the multifaceted nature of energy geopolitics under shifting U.S. policy, with scenario probabilities ranging from 40% to 85%. To develop these insights, we applied advanced methodologies like Cross-Impact Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and AI-driven Predictive Analytics (using scikit-learn, TensorFlow, and R), enhanced by neural networks and agent-based modeling (MESA). By combining data science with geopolitical intelligence, we ensure real-time adaptability and reliable forecasts in this dynamic landscape. While we can't publicly share the full details of our work, we will be posting some insights in the future. Curious about how our hybrid approach can enhance your business strategy? Let’s connect! https://lnkd.in/d8qwMdEZ #DataScience, #Geopolitics, #OilMarkets, #AI, #ScenarioPlanning #Intelligence #RiskManagement Ray Dalio Rafael Sampayo Arnold Dupuy, Ph.D. Rubén Arcos David R. Mandel Philippe Chauvain Matthias Seifert Freddy Jönsson Hanberg Jonas Haggren Jose Parejo European Union

Ecuador’s recent decision to increase power rationing to 14 hours daily highlights the severe consequences of over-relying on hydropower in an age of climate instability. With over 50% of Ecuador’s electricity generated from hydroelectric dams, prolonged droughts have pushed the country to the brink, exposing critical vulnerabilities in its energy infrastructure. This crisis isn’t unique to Ecuador--countries like Venezuela and Brazil have also faced major blackouts due to climate impacts on their hydro networks. Ecuador’s experience raises urgent questions for energy-reliant economies: Is hydro over-dependence sustainable when climate change continues to impact water resources? Economically, the stakes are high. Ecuador’s top industries--oil (accounting for 60% of GDP), shrimp exports, and agriculture--are directly impacted by the power shortages, threatening production stability. Foreign oil giants like REPSOL, SHELL, and CNPC operating through joint ventures with Petroecuador may now find themselves reassessing long-term investments under such unstable conditions. Diversification isn’t just a nice-to-have; it’s a critical requirement for any nation aiming for true energy resilience. At JOSE PAREJO & ASSOCIATES, we excel in assisting governments and companies' visionary leaders to go ahead of the curve. Are you ready to contact us: https://lnkd.in/dWcPdgK7 #EcuadorEnergyCrisis #HydropowerChallenges #EnergyTransition #ClimateResilience #RenewableEnergy #SustainableGrowth #LatinAmericaEnergy #Diversification #GlobalEnergyStrategy #InvestmentRisk #ClimateChangeImpacts #JoseParejoAssociates

As the United States and Angola signed a groundbreaking Open Skies Agreement, a new chapter in U.S.-Africa relations is unfolding. This agreement is a crucial move that allows unrestricted civil aviation between the two nations, aiming to boost economic growth, foster connectivity, and modernize Angola's air infrastructure. President Joe Biden is expected to visit Angola in December, underscoring the strategic importance of the partnership. The U.S. is actively seeking to counterbalance China's influence in Africa, particularly in Angola--a country with vast natural resources and one of the largest oil exporters to China. China already operates multiple flight routes from various cities to Luanda, Angola’s capital, alongside substantial investments in Angola's infrastructure through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This Open Skies Agreement is more than just a transportation upgrade; it signals an intensified geopolitical competition in Africa. Angola’s economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil, with oil accounting for over 95% of its exports and around 30% of its GDP. However, Angola’s production has dropped from 2 million barrels per day in 2008 to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day in recent years, largely due to underinvestment and aging infrastructure. With 6.8 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, Angola ranks as the second-largest oil producer in Africa after Nigeria. U.S. companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil continue to operate in Angola, but the entry of Chinese firms in recent years has intensified competition. But also, Angola has rich deposits of cobalt and diamonds, which are crucial for high-tech industries and renewable energy solutions. As the U.S. re-establishes its presence, particularly in aviation, it positions itself strategically in a resource-rich region where China and Russia have historically dominated. In economic terms, the Open Skies Agreement is expected to drive economic activity in Angola’s aviation and tourism sectors, sectors that have long remained underdeveloped due to limited connectivity. Is your business prepared to navigate the evolving dynamics of U.S.-Africa relations? Follow us on Linkedln. Contact us for in-depth, actionable insights into strategic opportunities in Africa.https://https://lnkd.in/dWcPdgK7 #Angola #USRelations #OpenSkies #AfricaStrategy #OilIndustry #Geopolitics #MineralResources #EconomicGrowth #USChinaCompetition #EnergyTransition #AviationExpansion #TradeOpportunities #JoseParejoAssociates

Zambia’s recent move to issue new copper mining licenses to foreign investors underscores its ambition to boost production in a sector that already contributes over 60% of the nation’s GDP. Zambia produces some 850,000 tonnes of copper per year, in a period when copper prices are surging due to its central role in the energy transition. Regarding this licensing initiative, it has drawn interest from heavy-players such as Canada’s First Quantum Minerals, currently operating the Kansanshi mine with some 10% of Zambia’s total output. Also Saudi Arabia’s Manara Minerals, seems to be keen to invest billions to capitalize on Zambia’s untapped reserves. However, it is necessary to highlight that Zambia relies on hydropower-- circa 85% of its total electricity generation capacity-- which has been hindered by drought and subsequent energy blackouts: without a stable power supply, scaling up production could be challenging. As the US and Gulf states race to secure critical minerals, over 70% of Zambia’s copper exports currently go to China. Given the projected demand for copper--set to double by 2035--Zambia’s position in the global supply chain is more strategic than ever. Follow us for updates on Linkedln. For deep insights and strategic advice, contact us: https://lnkd.in/dWcPdgK7 #CopperMining #CriticalMinerals #EnergyTransition #ZambiaEconomy #MiningInvestments #GlobalSupplyChain #JoseParejoAssociates

As Indonesia’s newly appointed president, Prabowo Subianto marks a potential shift in the country’s geopolitical and economic strategies. Known for his previous rivalry with outgoing president Joko Widodo, Subianto’s ascension signals continuity with a twist: emphasizing self-reliance while navigating Southeast Asia’s complex power dynamics. With Indonesia’s economy growing at 5% annually, Subianto’s administration aims to build a self-sustaining economic base. Key sectors, such as food and energy security, will be prioritized, with plans to bolster domestic resource processing to minimize reliance on imports. In a significant move, Indonesia is planning a state-owned investment agency modeled on Singapore’s Temasek, targeting critical sectors like mining, telecommunications, construction, and finance. This agency is projected to attract billions in investment, allowing Indonesia to exert greater control over industries that are essential to its economic resilience. Subianto has reaffirmed Indonesia’s commitment to neutrality, aiming to balance relationships with both the U.S. and China without joining any exclusive alliances. This position aligns with Indonesia’s strategic location, controlling major shipping routes such as the Strait of Malacca, Sunda, and Lombok, critical for global trade. Maintaining neutrality could enable Indonesia to benefit from diverse foreign investments while safeguarding its autonomy, a crucial consideration in the increasingly polarized Asia-Pacific. Indonesia’s status as Southeast Asia’s largest economy and the third-largest democracy gives it a pivotal role within ASEAN. With major logistical hubs for maritime trade, Indonesia holds sway over some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. Also very relevant that as the global race for resources intensifies, Indonesia’s copper, nickel, and other mineral assets are becoming indispensable for the energy transition. Indonesia holds about 22% of the world’s nickel reserves, 3% of the world’s copper reserves, 15-17% of global tin reserves, 3% of the world’s bauxite reserves and, while Indonesia does not currently produce large quantities of cobalt, it has significant potential reserves as a byproduct, again a critical component in EV batteries. Follow us for updates on Linkedln Reach out for special products at https://lnkd.in/dGbpXSaz #Indonesia #SoutheastAsia #PrabowoSubianto #EconomicSovereignty #Neutrality #Geopolitics #InvestInIndonesia #EmergingMarkets #IndoPacific #MaritimeTrade #EnergySecurity #ASEAN #GlobalTradeRoutes #ResourceManagement #MineralsForTheFuture #JoseParejoAssociates

🌍 Real-Time Network Intelligence to Drive Security and Decision-Making 🚀 Imagine seeing your organization’s entire digital ecosystem in one, clear view--identifying threats instantly and making rapid decisions when it matters most. At JOSE PAREJO & ASSOCIATES, we bring military-grade network visualization to empower leaders, enhance security, and bridge the gap between IT and strategy. 🔐 Secure smarter, react faster, lead with confidence. #StrategicIntelligence #Cybersecurity #NetworkVisualization #JoseParejoAssociates #RealTimeSecurity #LeadershipInnovation

🌍 Jose Parejo & Associates: Uniting Strategic Intelligence and Advanced Technology 🚀 At Jose Parejo & Associates, we leverage military-grade network visualization technology to bridge the gap between IT, security, and leadership. Our bespoke solutions empower organizations to visualize their networks in real-time, enabling faster decision-making and stronger cybersecurity. From global corporations to government agencies, our team brings unparalleled expertise in geopolitical analysis, cybersecurity, and organizational transformation. 🔍 Ready to optimize your enterprise infrastructure and improve incident response times? Contact us today! https://lnkd.in/d8qwMdEZ #StrategicIntelligence #Cybersecurity #NetworkVisualization #GeopoliticalAnalysis #TechnologyInnovation World Economic Forum #OrganizationalTransformation #ITManagement #LeadershipSupport Arnold Dupuy, Ph.D. Rubén Arcos Philippe Chauvain Matthias Seifert Freddy Jönsson Hanberg Jonas Haggren Jose Parejo European Union NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence NATO Science & Technology Organization (STO) OCIMF (Oil Companies International Marine Forum) IOGP

Denmark, a leader in offshore wind energy, has recently made significant adjustments to its green hydrogen strategy. The Danish Energy Agency (DEA) has slashed its hydrogen power demand forecast by 47% for 2035, indicating a recalibration of hydrogen’s role in Denmark’s energy transition. Alongside this, the rollout of a green hydrogen transmission pipeline to Germany has been postponed until 2031, as confirmed by Energinet, Denmark’s transmission system operator. These developments reflect the growing complexity of integrating hydrogen into the country’s already successful wind energy sector. Meanwhile, the broader Nordic energy market continues to experience a power surplus driven by abundant wind and hydropower generation, which is contributing to lower electricity prices across the region. Companies like Uniper are reportedly facing challenges in advancing their 200 MW hydrogen project in Sweden, a signal of broader uncertainties in the hydrogen sector. With regulatory bodies like Nord Pool, Svenska Kraftnät, and Nordic Energy Research closely monitoring these shifts, the future of Nordic renewable energy markets remains dynamic. Energy stakeholders must adapt quickly to this evolving landscape to seize new opportunities while managing the risks of strategic delays and shifting demand forecasts. Contact us for Scnearios Generations and Energy Intelligence Services: https://lnkd.in/dWcPdgK7 #WindEnergy #HydrogenStrategy #NordicEnergyMarket #DenmarkRenewables #GreenHydrogen #PowerSurplus #EnergyMarketTrends #NordPool #Energinet #Uniper #SvenskaKraftnät #JoseParejoAssociates #GlobalEnergyInsights #ClimateNeutrality #EnergyIntelligence European Union

At Jose Parejo & Associates, we specialize in providing strategic intelligence and transformative solutions for governments, global corporations, and NGOs. From geostrategic analysis to smart business continuity programs, we leverage our extensive experience across conflict zones and international policy hubs to deliver unique, high-impact results. Our global network spans 30+ countries, offering unparalleled expertise to help our clients make informed decisions, seize opportunities, and navigate complex challenges with confidence. Explore how we can help you succeed in a dynamic world. 🌐 Website: https://lnkd.in/dGbpXSaz #StrategicIntelligence #GeopoliticalAnalysis #BusinessContinuity #OrganizationalTransformation #ProtectiveIntelligence #GlobalConsulting #AdvancedSecurity #JPAssociates #InternationalAffairs #GovernmentConsulting #ExecutiveStrategy

At Jose Parejo & Associates, we specialize in delivering unparalleled strategic intelligence. With decades of on-the-ground experience in global conflict zones and key policy centers, our team provides governments, corporations, and NGOs with the insights needed to navigate today’s complex geopolitical, legal, and business landscapes. From enhanced due diligence to protective intelligence, we offer trusted, high-level expertise, ensuring our clients succeed in even the most challenging environments. We thrive on delivering real results where others cannot. Contact: https://lnkd.in/dGbpXSaz #StrategicIntelligence #ProtectiveIntelligence #BusinessContinuity #GeopoliticalAnalysis #CorporateSecurity #EnhancedDueDiligence #GovernmentAdvisory #NGOAdvisory #RiskManagement #GlobalLeadership #TrustedAdvisors