Aleph - Analisi strategiche

In September 2024, Germany will witness three consecutive state elections in its radical-leaning east—on September 1 in Thuringia and Saxony, and on September 22 in Brandenburg—with the next federal election looming large the following year. Two disruptive newcomers, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-conservative Union Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), are likely to emerge as winners. For the moment, their entrance in government seems unlikely. However, as their influence grows and their policy platforms garner mainstream support, a look ahead reveals their vision for Germany’s complicated relations with Russia, China, and the European Union. Their programs reveal the many ways in which they aspire to upend the foreign policy consensus of Europe’s biggest economy. - Gregor Lauth for Aleph https://lnkd.in/dgkSN63d

 In May 2024, Georgia’s parliament approved a controversial “foreign influence” law that has ignited uproar from media outlets, opposition parties, civil society groups, and especially the socially and politically active Gen Z. With the bill now enacted—after 84 votes in favour and 30 against—NGOs and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organisations “bearing the interests of a foreign power.” Not only will they be monitored by the Ministry of Justice, along with any other person related to these organisations, they will also be forced to share sensitive and confidential information. The consequences are worth exploring. - natalia papuashvili for Aleph https://lnkd.in/dX6tMZsM

When Donald Trump made history by winning the Republican nomination and the presidency in 2016, many decried a radical break with conservative history. In retrospect, Trump’s election was the natural result in a process stretching decades. His rhetoric recalls the anger of the ‘90s, his thought the Birchers of the ‘50s. His base is rooted in the same petite bourgeoisie the right has always counted on. The capture of conservative institutions by the Donald’s allies has now embedded an inchoate authoritarianism in its leadership. That his probable successors lack his charismatic appeal is bad news: liberal democracy is no longer a winning bet for the American right. The final essay in our series on American conservatism examines the contested present and uncertain future of American conservatism. Although not yet set in stone, it seems that reaction has displaced conservatism, but the worst might only come after Donald Trump. Read more on our website! - Antonio Carapella for Aleph AS https://lnkd.in/d3gxeGa7

Contemporaries described Ronald Reagan’s rise to the presidency in 1980 as “the election that Watergate postponed.” It heralded a political realignment not seen since Roosevelt, dispatching the remnants of the New Deal coalition. But what happened between Nixon and Reagan? The conservative movement born under Buckley and Goldwater matured, extending its influence far into the world of capital and nurturing the powerful religious right. The Republican Party became the party Americans recognize today: the party of aggressive anti-communism, merciless tax cuts, and straight-laced Puritanism. In this second piece on the American Right, a vivid portrait is painted of American society from 1972 to 1992. To understand American politics today, this is indispensable. - Antonio Carapella for Aleph https://lnkd.in/dNMycvqc

What is American conservatism and where is it going? From Trump’s unquestionable leadership to Project 2025, there’s been much talk of the Republican Party’s radicalization. This essay, the first of three, is an attempt to trace its origins over 80 years, examining the activists, intellectuals, politicians, preachers, and institutions that made Donald Trump possible. From 1946 to 1972, the nascent conservative movement emerged from the cracks of the New Deal. Harnessing fear of communism and desegregation, it built a base amongst the petit bourgeoisie, Southern whites, and the Sun Belt’s suburbanites. It rode the tide of the ‘60s to occupy an important position in the Republican Party, but there was still much time before it would become the conservatism Americans recognize in 2024. - Antonio Carapella for Aleph https://lnkd.in/ddGEuPFW

Il QUAD, o Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, è un'alleanza strategica tra Stati Uniti, Giappone, India e Australia che mira a promuovere un Indo-Pacifico libero, aperto e inclusivo, garantendo la sicurezza e la stabilità nella regione. Si è formato per affrontare sfide comuni come la sicurezza marittima, il terrorismo, i cambiamenti climatici e, in particolare, per contenere l'influenza crescente della Cina, attraverso una cooperazione rafforzata in ambito diplomatico, economico e militare. Per Aleph - Gabriele Catellani, Jacopo Briseghella, Giacomo Focaccia e Guido Riccio https://lnkd.in/dfz4waCB

The Europe Focus Group is glad to bring you a collection on the recent elections in the United Kingdom and France. Fourteen years of Tory rule were brought to a close on July 4. Will Keir Starmer’s Labour have a similar staying power? Michele Mauri The continent held its breath after the Rassemblenent National’s dominance in the European elections. Emmanuel Macron’s snap elections seemed to check their ambitions. Morgane Bouguessa Read more below. https://lnkd.in/dNd_QeUD

In an era characterised by rising geopolitical tensions and a surge in protectionist measures, the boundary between trade issues and national security is becoming increasingly blurred as countries like the U.S., EU, China, and India pivot towards protectionist policies with large subsidies, tariffs, export restrictions and investment screenings. While protectionism is nothing new, today’s policy notably frames trade in a different light, as governments rationalise decoupling through a national security lens by targeting specific geopolitical advisories and protecting sensitive industries, resulting in a more fragmented world moving towards a dangerous precedent where trade is seen as a zero-sum game. Marcus Harvey Isaksson for Aleph - Analisi Strategiche https://lnkd.in/dKxCexga

Kazakhstan repeatedly appears on the list of EU sanction packages against Russia, even though the Kremlin feels its close “friend” slipping away, causing both to be dissatisfied with the Tokayev government. Astana’s traditional foreign policy, multi-vectorism, has served the country well over its 30 years of independence, but is now increasingly under pressure. With rising tensions between superpowers, Kazakhstan faces the critical question of whether it can continue its multi-vector approach or if it must finally choose a primary ally. Aini Yeskhozhina for Aleph https://lnkd.in/gh-dKrka

The recent summit between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un was more than just a convenient photo op. Surprising most observers, it resulted in a landmark treaty between the Russian Federation and North Korea, with renewed commitments to mutual defense, economic exchange, and military cooperation. In this special, we take a look at the content and consequences of the “Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” its impact on Pyongyang’s anxious neighbors in Japan and South Korea, Beijing’s response, and its relationship to Ukraine. https://lnkd.in/dDz_pBsw