Cirrus

An analysis assessing the good, the bad, and the ugly of the 2023 Census results is now available on Cirrus Data, examining each component and comparing the results with data from previous census years.

Namibia's annual inflation for October 2024 further decelerated to 3.0% from 3.4% in the previous month and 6.0% a year ago - mainly driven by deflationary fuel prices compared to the same period last year.

The Berkshire Hathaway cash position increased to USD325 billion in Q3 2024, translating to 32.7% of its market cap, as the company halted share buybacks and continued trimming its holdings.

Building Namibia's future, one project at a time! Nexus Mining & Construction chose Ohorongo Cement to bring the new Savanna Beef Processing Plant to life just outside Windhoek. Together, we're laying the foundation for a stronger, more sustainable Namibia. #Ohorongo #OhorongoCement #BuildingFutures #IndustrializingNamibia #proudlynamibian #togetherwearestronger #cement #quality #NamibianCement #NexusMiningandConstruction #SavannaBeef #BuildingNamibia #SustainableConstruction #OhorongoFamily

Namibia's unemployment rate is estimated to be 43.0% in 2024, placing it among the highest known unemployment rates worldwide. Since independence, Namibia has seen no material improvement in its unemployment rate, which spiked to over 30% at the start of the century and has consistently hovered around the 30-35% mark. Unfortunately, no data beyond 2018 has been made available by Namibia's official statistics agency, despite previously collecting this data nearly every year since 2008. However, according to Afrobarometer data, Namibia's unemployment rate has risen to a (quite unbelievable) 43.0% in 2024. Unemployed Namibians find it extremely difficult to secure a job. The Namibia Labour Force Survey of 2018 reported that three in four unemployed jobseekers had been out of work for more than a year. This pattern is consistent across rural/urban and male/female respondents, with 70-76% reporting this length of unemployment. Public confidence in the government’s ability to create jobs has dropped to an all-time low in 2024, with nearly 90% believing the government is performing either "fairly badly" or "very badly" in this area. Confidence in other areas - such as stabilising prices, reducing inequality, addressing educational needs, improving basic health services, fighting corruption, and more - has also declined to all-time lows in 2024. In each round of the Afrobarometer survey, unemployment remains, by far, the issue that the public most urgently believes the government must address. These drops in confidence, alongside other statistics recording rising public unrest and discontent, correlate strongly with diminishing public trust and support for the government. Afrobarometer's national partner in Namibia, Survey Warehouse, regularly collects unemployment statistics (and more) using nationally representative, random, stratified probability samples of 1,200 adult citizens. A sample of this size provides country-level results with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Author: Tannan Groenewald

Unemployment data omissions undermines NSA’s credibility By Rowland Brown On the 30th of October, the Namibia Statistics Agency’s (NSA) released the 2023 Census report, around a year after the data collection for the same was completed. However, despite collecting labour force data and employment/unemployment data, in a turn of events more worthy of North Korea than Namibia, this was excluded from the report, a notable change to previous Census reports. This means that the latest official unemployment data we have is the 2018 figures. These were dismal: 33.4% unemployment. Subsequent to that, we went through two more years of little to no growth, followed by COVID. At the same time, 250,000 to 300,000 young persons will have entered the labour force, and while it is possible that the economic growth of the last couple of years may have created some jobs, there is no chance that these will be of a comparable magnitude. Things can only have got worse. Based on our best assessment, the best we can do without data, unemployment must now be above 40%. https://lnkd.in/dV7-mJti #namibia #adata #census #unemploymentdata #credibility

Nearly three in four Namibians experienced food insecurity in the year preceding the 2024 Afrobarometer survey - one of the highest levels ever recorded for any African nation. The Afrobarometer series began in 1999 and covers 42 African nations.

Rowland Brown discusses Namibia's political landscape, election expectations and more as Namibians head to the polls on November 27. See the full video via the link in the comments. #Namibia #Elections

Earlier this year, Minister of Finance, Honourable Iipumbu Shiimi presented the FY ‘24/25 budget. In our view, the budget struck a lot of the right chords, presenting a positive fiscal trajectory for Namibia, with the government shifting from being a headwind for growth to a prudent facilitator – or at least having the intention to be a facilitator for economic growth. The full-year budget saw a material improvement of Namibia’s key metrics, owing to a sustained period of robust economic growth. Firstly, the government expects debt-to-GDP to fall to 56.4% by the end of the MTEF (FY ‘26/27), from 67.2% in FY ‘21/22. This is largely a function of redemptions of some of Namibia’s domestic and foreign debt – most notably the second Eurobond due in Oct ’25 with USD750.0 million outstanding. Government also expects sustained primary surpluses through the MTEF, which returned for the first time since FY ‘12/13. As such, the deficit-to-GDP is expected to decline to -3.0% in FY ‘26/27 from -7.9% in FY ’21/22. The MTBPS due on 28 Oct ’24 presents an opportunity to measure the government’s execution thus far, with potential for policy changes or updates. On revenue, NamRA has reported NAD45.1 billion in tax collections over the last 6m - 54.5% of the government’s projected NAD87.3 billion for the fiscal year. The outperformance on tax collection halfway through the fiscal year has been a constant since FY ’21/22, but the base is significantly higher this year. While diamond production has slowed due to pressure on prices, SACU receipts (53.1% of overall projection), and personal (57.1% of overall projection) and corporate taxes (55.1% of overall projection) have remained healthy. Further, Government continues to remain conservative on revenue to avoid downside surprises, which, in our view, is a prudent approach. Expenditure is expected to increase, with a notable increase in developmental spending primarily focused on Education, Housing Infrastructure and Healthcare. However, while capital has been made available for the much-needed improvement of various sectors of the economy, the outturn may be below expectation as large capital projects have taken longer to get underway. Execution remains a concern, as there may not yet be extensive capacity to fulfil the government’s goals – this is okay when ideas are bad, but it can be frustrating when there are good ideas. Finally, interest expense is expected to continue to place pressure on the fiscus over the MTEF. However, notable yield compressions on all government-issued paper (Treasury bills and Bonds) have resulted in a much lower marginal cost of funding, with more than a NAD10.00 premium added to long-duration bonds on offer – i.e., the government is now borrowing at approximately 90c on the dollar versus 79c on the dollar when the budget was tabled. The market does not expect any fireworks in the MTBPS, but as we have previously noted, “boring budgets are good budgets.” Author: Pandu Shaduka

A huge round of applause for our incredible mentor, Amy Walters for passing the CFA Level III exam! Amy truly deserves her flowers for this achievement. The CFA Level III pass rate dropped to 48% in August, according to Bloomberg – below the decade average of 52%. Yet, with determination and expertise, Amy has conquered one of the toughest exams in finance 💪 On behalf of the Sisedi Mentorship Program, congratulations and continue inspiring future finance professionals. #CFA #Sisedi #SisediMentorshipProgram #CFAJourney #CharteredFinancialAnalyst #MentorshipExcellence #SisediMentors #WomenInFinance #WomenInInvestments