How a Harris or Trump presidency can impact the market for agricultural produce...
After years of following U.S. politics, I’m ready for what’s called “the most important election of all times.” With a view of Miami’s port and the electoral map in front of me, I’ll be keeping score tonight.
Presidents in the US - compared to other nations - wield more power, and their proposed policies often bring substantial shifts to the global market.
Here's a closer look at how potential Harris or Trump policies might influence the agricultural produce market.
Kamala Harris aims to curb “price gouging” in the food industry, assuming that large companies in the food supply chain may exploit situations to inflate prices. If implemented with price caps on what farms and importers can charge, this could risk limiting supply rather than lowering prices, as producers may find it unviable to bring their goods to market at all.
Donald Trump’s position on tariffs could be impactful on multiple fronts. A blanket 20% import tariff would directly affect around half of all supermarket fruits, making imported produce notably more expensive. In addition, raising tariffs on Chinese goods up to 100% could provoke retaliation from China, similar to 2018 and 2019 measures that cost U.S. producers $27 billion in exports.
Then if Robert Kennedy indeed gets the promised role in Trump’s cabinet, he’s committed to “making America healthy again” by banning some of the most harmful agricultural chemicals already restricted in other countries. These chemicals have reportedly been prioritized for lowering production costs rather than safeguarding consumer health or the environment. Removing them would likely raise the cost of produce in supermarkets, but it would come with benefits for both public health and the environment.
Still, I’m less concerned about how these policies may impact demand for fresh produce.
I’ve recently come to understand that demand in this market is relatively "inelastic"; consumers rarely adjust their food consumption habits even with significant price changes. Food, after all, is essential, has no real substitute, and in developed economies, it occupies a modest share of the household budget.
Ultimately, while a Harris or Trump presidency could reshape the agricultural market, consumer demand for fresh produce is likely to stay strong.
