Gatehouse

Our Chairman Sir Jeremy Greenstock and Director Sir David Manning separately spoke to Sky News regarding the rapidly evolving situation in the Middle East. Check out their insights below: Sir Jeremy: https://lnkd.in/efaB4pyE Sir David: https://lnkd.in/eNWZV-kS

We're really looking forward to our next Gatehouse Club discussion, which will look at 'Tectonic Shifts: New Players and New Rules?'. With our fantastic panel of Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Kamissa Camara, Nitin Prasad and moderator Nathalie Wlodarczyk, PhD, we will explore what the deteriorating power of multilateral institutions, rising influence of middle powers, and the fact that businesses are geopolitical actors in their own right, will mean for corporate strategies going forward. If you would like to hear more about our invitation-only Gatehouse Club discussions, get in touch with info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com. 

Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds – New Geopolitical Actors? Sitting on assets of nearly $4tn collectively, the largest Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) play a highly influential role in global capital flows. Against a backdrop of rapid global change, many of these funds have begun recalibrating their investment approaches. SWF investment strategies have become more focused on global “megatrends” (e.g. climate change, demographic shifts). This new era presents risks and opportunities for the funds themselves as well as for those who seek their capital. Understanding the objectives of these funds and their interactions with a complex geopolitical environment will be critical. Key Takeaways 1. Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) are evolving rapidly into more selective investors. An era of reliance on Western asset managers to drive returns is over. 2. A fragmented geopolitical backdrop presents new opportunities and trade offs for the funds themselves, whose dual mandates – domestic and international – aim for both commercial and political returns for their patrons. 3. Companies seeking capital will need to understand the objectives of these funds. Articulating alignment with national visions, alongside the potential for strong commercial returns, will be critical. To learn more about our findings and discuss what these policy implications might mean for your organisation, please contact info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com. #Gatehouse #NeedToKnow

We held a fascinating dinner discussion last week for a selection of our clients with Baroness Catherine Ashton and General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith, exploring the business and investment realities of a European shift towards war economies. We’d like to thank Cathy and Mark for their expert contribution and all of our guests for their unique perspectives and questions. Understanding the nature of war-fighting capacity in the UK and Europe is critical. The attempt to establish credible deterrence and address deficiencies will impact government priorities and policies for years to come – with a strong focus on private sector involvement. Please see below the key takeaways from our analysis last month on the necessity for and challenges associated with rebuilding credible deterrence in the UK and Europe. To request the full Signal report or to discuss how these changes will affect your business, please contact us at info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com. 1. The nature of the military threat facing the UK and Europe has changed since the end of the Cold War, but the capacity to respond has not grown to meet it. Military capabilities have eroded significantly and new vulnerabilities have emerged, through widespread digitisation of services and financial systems, and supply chains with global dependencies. An expected US shift towards a single-front doctrine focused on the Pacific would further increase the lift required in Europe. 2. Addressing this new reality will require a concerted effort to rebuild the industrial base to support and sustain credible deterrence, but also increased collaboration: with Allies for burden-sharing, with the private sector for innovation, and with wider society for resilience. 3. Unlocking access to finance for companies in defence supply chains will sharpen attention on ESG frameworks that have deterred investment. A new focus on stimulating a global financial system that remains favourable to Western borrowing is also likely, with much of defence spending still anchored in debt. Governments may require explicit guidance from financial sector players to protect long-term defence expenditure. #Gatehouse #Geopolitics #Deterrence #Foresight

Populism in Germany – What Has Changed, and What Hasn’t? Germany’s relative political stability is unlikely to be derailed by the recent performance of extreme parties in Eastern regional elections. The AfD is highly likely to be excluded from Länder governments; and the federal coalition will probably limp on to elections in September 2025, the most likely outcome of which is another centrist ‘Grand Coalition’ led by the CDU. But ‘stability’ alone will not be sufficient to address the country’s structural challenges, and populist figures will continue to capitalise on legitimate popular grievances. This could have national policy implications as the centrist coalition partners seek to maintain their voter appeal. In the short term, debates around migration and climate spending are likely to intensify; while in the longer term, Germany’s political model might be at risk of more radical change. Key Takeaways 1. The political scene is wobbling ominously. Overall stability is likely to remain in the short-to-medium term - structural constraints will probably keep the AfD from power, though BSW will be harder to contain. 2. The current coalition will probably limp on to next year, though fragmentation and indecision will continue. Elections next year will probably herald a centrist coalition but Germany’s structural challenges will remain. 3. Berlin’s political centre of gravity has shifted. Political discourse has already moved notably rightwards on migration, and centrist parties face a tough challenge to avoid the fate of their French counterparts. To learn more about our findings and discuss what these policy implications might mean for your organisation, please contact info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com. #Gatehouse #Geopolitics #EuropeanUnion #Germany

The EU Capital Markets Union – New Drivers but Incremental Progress The EU’s weak growth is undermining its influence in an increasingly competitive global landscape. Leaders are belatedly realising the significant capital requirements to achieve a decarbonised, technologically-advanced and secure bloc. This has revived discussions of the need for a Capital Markets Union (CMU) to boost innovation and productivity. But disagreements which have plagued the project for a decade remain, and absent a fresh crisis, only incremental progress is likely. Key Takeaways 1. Sluggish growth, the green agenda and the Ukraine war offer new motivation for further integration of EU capital markets, with many leaders hoping deeper pools of capital and increased cross-border investment will boost competitiveness. 2. But national-level authorities and some private firms stand opposed to key parts of the CMU package, and would resist European Commission proposals for top-down reforms. 3. The new Commission will be broadly supportive of the CMU, though progress is likely to be slow and incremental, and only in areas of unified Member State support. To learn more about our findings and discuss what these policy implications might mean for your organisation, please contact info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com. #Gatehouse #Geopolitics #EuropeanUnion #CapitalMarketsUnion

Climate and Nature Summits – Who Pays and Who Protects? Global fragmentation will challenge the upcoming quad of United Nations #climate and #biodiversity summits, culminating in COP29 in November: - The Summit of the Future (Sept. 22-23, New York) - Climate Week (Sept. 22-29, New York) - The #COP16 Biodiversity Conference (Oct. 21-Nov. 1, Cali, Colombia) - The #COP29 Climate Change Conference (Nov. 11-22, #Baku, Azerbaijan) In this fragile environment, global cooperation has been an early casualty, with the G7 and developing nations taking a sharply different foreign policy approach. The prospect for multi-government and private sector “climate club” initiatives, notably the #JETP programs pushed by the G7, has therefore faded. But the role of the private sector in these summits will be significant, as governments and multilateral agencies struggle to mobilise the financing and know-how to support the climate and biodiversity transition whilst remaining anxious to show progress. Key Takeaways: 1. Geopolitical fragmentation, the reluctance of rich nations to accelerate levels of assistance and private sector concern about structural impediments to capital mobilisation will probably prevent major breakthroughs at this autumn’s climate and nature summits, beyond what COP28 delivered. 2. The competing questions of ‘who pays’ for historic damage to the environment and ‘who protects’ will remain unresolved, compounded by the sharpening divide between the #G7 and developing nations. 3. There is a sense of déjà vu around the summits as recycled policy priorities temper the international community’s expectations. Many will hope that the #Brazil Chair for #COP30 (2025) will bring more political weight towards a defined outcome. To request the full Signal report please get in touch with info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com #Geostrategy #Foresight #Gatehouse

Breaking News: AI Declares Truth “Obsolete”! The fusion of new technology (#AI) and old tactics (#disinformation) heralds a new era of influence campaigns. Its implications are far-reaching and cumulative, requiring a comprehensive reevaluation of how governments protect democratic institutions, safeguard corporate interests, and maintain societal trust. The stakes are high: the integrity of information ecosystems is fundamental to modern democratic societies. Key Takeaways 1. New Tools, Same Game: Disinformation approaches are being turbo-charged by AI-powered tools to create powerful influence campaigns. These aim to manipulate perceptions, amplify existing biases and erode trust in Western institutions. 2. Shifting Ground: The traditional information battleground has expanded beyond political arenas. Corporations, especially those in strategic sectors, have become prime targets. Their reputations, operations and valuations are all vulnerable. 3. Inadequate Defences: Current countermeasures, often reactive and fragmented, are insufficient. A paradigm shift is necessary, towards a proactive, multi-stakeholder approach combining technology, legal systems and public awareness campaigns. To request the full Signal report please get in touch with info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com #Geostrategy #Foresight #Gatehouse

US Election Lookahead – Harris Administration Scenario Three months ahead of the election, Kamala Harris is virtually tied with Donald Trump in key swing states, including in ‘must-win’ Pennsylvania. She has momentum coming out of the Democratic National Convention but has limited campaign experience, and economic challenges remain. As part of Gatehouse’s 2024 Election Series, our team have produced a scenario-based dashboard focused on a potential Harris Administration's domestic and foreign policy priorities. Key Takeaways 1. Harris’s domestic policy agenda would probably not differ dramatically from Biden’s in most areas. Her top priorities would be to boost US economic productivity and employment, tackle cost of living and welfare challenges, and accelerate onshoring in key sectors. She would look to achieve many of her key objectives via targeted tax incentives. 2. On foreign policy, Harris would also be unlikely to deviate considerably from Biden’s ‘New Washington Consensus’. Major new trade deals are unlikely, but expect a greater focus on strategic sourcing, particularly regarding critical minerals in Africa. 3. The early stages of a Harris Administration would probably be highly constrained by firefighting, especially if Republicans hold the Senate and Trumpist legislators are enraged by an electoral defeat they see as illegitimate. State of Play Harris would probably pursue continuity with President Biden’s domestic and foreign policy agenda in most areas, at least initially. She may have little choice but to do so if she finds herself presiding over a divided Congress, a fractured nation, and an aggrieved set of Trump supporters and legislators. Such a domestic backdrop would probably constrain Harris’s ability to address seemingly intractable foreign policy challenges, and she may be forced to make tricky decisions earlier than desired. This makes her senior foreign policy appointments all the more important: Kurt Campbell, Bill Burns and Phil Gordon would be a formidable line-up. Either way, Harris’s election would change the global geopolitical atmosphere next year, compared to 2024’s nervous mood music. Her relatively ‘business as usual’ approach would be particularly welcomed by European leaders wary of a Trump return. NATO’s future would look more secure, the ‘green agenda’ would remain intact, and global trade would be spared the blanket disruption threatened by Trump. Meanwhile, Russia and China may feel more uneasy. President Putin may be forced to recalculate in Ukraine, while President Xi would not welcome Harris’s emphasis on strengthening the US’s Indo-Pacific alliances. To learn more about our findings and discuss what these policy implications might mean for your organisation, please contact info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com. #Gatehouse #Geopolitics #USElection #2024Elections

Rebuilding Credible Deterrence in Europe – Why Should the Private Sector Care? Understanding the nature of war-fighting capacity in the UK and Europe is critical. The attempt to establish credible #deterrence and address deficiencies will impact government priorities and policies for years to come – probably with a strong focus on private sector involvement. The war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and strategic positioning by China have drawn attention to three things: (i) the increasing importance of #technology in both creating and addressing new vulnerabilities, (ii) the continued significance of conventional military capability and logistics, and (iii) how unprepared the ‘West’ (in particular, the UK and Europe) is to address the evolving threat landscape. Adversaries are increasing military spending, with both conventional and new technological capabilities in their arsenal – ranging from proliferation of hypersonic and nuclear weapons, to cheap #drones, and increasing use of economic levers, cyber and electronic warfare. The spectre of sustained conflict also raises serious questions about societal preparedness and resilience. Key Takeaways 1. The nature of the military threat facing the UK and Europe has changed since the end of the Cold War, but the capacity to respond has not grown to meet it. Military capabilities have eroded significantly and new vulnerabilities have emerged, through widespread digitisation of services and financial systems, and supply chains with global dependencies. An expected US shift towards a single-front doctrine focused on the #Pacific would further increase the lift required in Europe. 2. Addressing this new reality will require a concerted effort to rebuild the #industrial base to support and sustain credible deterrence, but also increased collaboration: with Allies for burden-sharing, with the private sector for innovation, and with wider society for resilience. 3. Unlocking access to #finance for companies in defence supply chains will sharpen attention on #ESG frameworks that have deterred investment. A new focus on stimulating a global financial system that remains favourable to Western borrowing is also likely, with much of defence spending still anchored in debt. Governments may require explicit guidance from financial sector players to protect long-term defence expenditure. To request the full Signal report and 'What to Watch' list, please get in touch with info@gatehouseadvisorypartners.com #Geostrategy #Foresight #Gatehouse