Sibylline Ltd

In our most recent episode of Sibylline Insight, General Sir James Everard, the former NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe and current Lead Senior Mentor for Allied Command Operations joined us to discuss current U.S.-European Defence Dynamics in the context of the war in Ukraine.    The discussion is particularly relevant ahead of an upcoming meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin. Check out the full episode now: Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://lnkd.in/eFNjTNaS Listen on Spotify: https://lnkd.in/enszyn8v Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/eAdTKrtp Please remember our Global Intelligence Team also hosts regular webinars throughout the week, analysing the evolving situation in Ukraine. Reserve your spot here: https://lnkd.in/e2WNXwQA #RefinedInsight #Ukraine #Podcast #Russia

Sibylline were honoured to be hosted by Hilton hotels at their 2025 EMEA Safety and Security conference, where Megan Sutcliffe and Alexander Lord briefed delegates on current regional flashpoints. Thank you to Paul Betley MA and Gabriel Warren for the invitation. We are proud of the relationship we build with our clients and always welcome such face-to-face interactions. If you are planning on running a workshop or team day for your security and intelligence teams, we’d love to support! #RefinedInsight #EMEA #Security

The U.S. and European Defence Dynamics with General Sir James Everard | Sibylline Insight Ep. 33 In this special episode, Head of Global Intelligence Gareth W. is joined by General Sir James Everard, the former NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe and current Lead Senior Mentor for Allied Command Operations. Gareth is also joined by Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst Alexander Lord and Principal North America Analyst Claire Brady. Together, they discuss the evolving situation in Ukraine, focusing on recent negotiations, Russia’s stance on a ceasefire, the implications of U.S. intelligence sharing, and the current state of the war. The conversation also explores potential worst-case scenarios for Ukraine and the response from European leaders amidst rising geopolitical tensions. Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://lnkd.in/eFNjTNaS Listen on Spotify: https://lnkd.in/enszyn8v Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/eAdTKrtp If you enjoyed the episode, please give us a like and subscribe for new episodes! You can also contact us with any questions or feedback: info@sibylline.co.uk #Ukraine #Podcast #RefinedInsight #Russia

We had an incredible time at ASIS Europe - From Risk to Resilience, in Dublin! This year's record-breaking event brought in over 1,000 attendees and united an amazing community across the geopolitical, corporate security, and intelligence sectors. As a headline sponsor, we were thrilled to lead several engaging sessions, including: 🔹 Justin Crump, our CEO, was part of an incredible panel that explored a wide range of business challenges, organisational strategies and leadership topics relevant to the evolving role of security leaders. 🔹Rebecca Jones, Head of Global Client Accounts, John Harley Breen, Consulting & Training Manager, and Justin Crump led a compelling discussion on how security leaders can navigate geopolitical challenges, align security strategies with business needs and inspire unified responses across business domains. 🔹Ignacio J. A., Lead Analyst, Data, Capabilities & Insights, and Sean R., Senior Consulting & Training Manager, held an insightful discussion on operationalising emerging tools within GSOCs to drive efficiencies, maintain technological currency and enhance overall performance through practical case studies. A huge thank you to ASIS International for organising a phenomenal event and to everyone we met during the week. We look forward to seeing you again next year in Antwerp, Belgium! #RefinedInsight #ASISEurope #CorporateSecurity #RiskManagement

In today's information-rich environment, intelligence gathering requires more than surface-level research. At the Reputation Masterclass 2025, hosted by Canny Comms, Rebecca Jones, Associate Director, Client Success, highlighted our approach to information verification, which includes: 🔹 Evaluating multiple open-source information streams 🔹 Critically assessing media sources and narratives 🔹 Communicating directly with local contacts and ground-level sources By cross-referencing these channels and applying analytical frameworks, we ensure the insights in our World Risk Register (WRR) provide a comprehensive and accurate understanding of complex global shifts. What challenges does your team face in validating information? #RefinedInsight #RiskIntelligence #GlobalInsights #StrategicAnalysis

Is your C-Suite prepared for evolving cyber threats in 2025? Join Steve Durbin and Kailyn Johnson from Sibylline Ltd as they explore the intersection of cyber threats and geopolitics. Key Takeaways from this episode: - The dark web's democratisation is enabling low-skilled threat actors. - Communication between security teams and budget holders is crucial for resilience. - Staying updated on patching and understanding supply chain threats will be key in 2025. 🎧 Listen now via the comments to gain practical advice on enhancing cyber resilience and communicating the value of cyber to senior leaders. #CyberSecurity #Geopolitics #DarkWeb #CyberResilience #ISFPodcast

CYBER: CO-OPERATION OF STATE ACTORS WITH CYBER CRIMINAL GROUPS WILL HEIGHTEN CYBER SECURITY RISKS FOR GLOBAL BUSINESSES In October 2024, the technology company Microsoft reported that, in 2024, state-sponsored groups affiliated with China, Iran, North Korea and Russia increasingly co-operated with cyber criminals to achieve their strategic objectives. According to the report, state-sponsored groups often outsourced cyber operations to government-aligned cyber criminal groups and ramped up their adoption of cyber criminal tactics and tools to maximise resources while claiming plausible deniability. In February, the technology company Google subsequently advocated for a more holistic approach to cyber security, indicating that the increased overlap between state-sponsored and cyber criminal activity elevates security risks for global businesses. 🔹 The increased commercialisation and diversification of the cyber criminal ecosystem will likely perpetuate the adoption of cyber criminal infrastructure, tactics and tools by state-sponsored groups. We assess that this will raise security risks in the long term. 🔹 Campaign outsourcing and the adoption of ransomware variants will increasingly enable state-sponsored groups to claim plausible deniability, heightening espionage and disruption risks to strategic targets in the long term. 🔹The continued adoption of cyber criminal tactics and tools will diversify and strengthen state-sponsored actors’ skillsets, elevating security and financial risks to global firms. These regional updates are part of Sibylline's World Risk Register service. If you would like to discuss a free trial, please get in touch with our team by emailing info@sibylline.co.uk. #RefinedInsight #Cybersecurity #CyberCrime #CyberAttacks #China #Iran #NorthKorea #Russia 

SPECIAL REPORT: INCREASING THREATS TO EXECUTIVE PROTECTION In 2024, several high-profile assassination attempts targeted government officials and corporate executives in the US. On 13 July 2024, gunshots were fired at Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Butler (Pennsylvania). The FBI classified the incident as an assassination attempt.    On 15 September 2024, the US Secret Service opened fire at an individual in possession of an AK-47 rifle at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach (Florida). This incident was also designated as an assassination attempt on Trump.    On 4 December 2024, the CEO of UnitedHealthcare’s insurance unit was killed in New York City (New York). The New York Police Department (NYPD) described the attack as targeted and premeditated; the suspect has since been charged with first-degree murder ‘in furtherance of an act of terrorism’. We assess that further attacks targeting corporate figures by radicalised sole perpetrators remain possible, including those motivated by far-left ideology. These regional updates are part of Sibylline's World Risk Register service. If you would like to discuss a free trial, please get in touch with our team by emailing info@sibylline.co.uk. #RefinedInsight #ExecutiveProtection #ThreatIntelligence #CorporateSecurity

US: GLOBAL IMPACTS OF US-IMPOSED TARIFFS Since Inauguration Day on 20 January, the administration of US President Donald Trump has routinely used the threat of tariffs as leverage against foreign nations to procure more advantageous trade terms. Trump’s transactional strategy will likely be employed for the duration of his term under the broader goal of raising revenue and protecting domestic industry. 🔹 US tariffs are unlikely to have a significant impact on the broader Middle East and Africa region during 2025. The impact will likely be largely limited to specific sectors tied to targeted commodities. 🔹 Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) direct exposure to tariffs will likely remain very limited through 2025, with the possible exception of South Africa. 🔹 Reciprocal US tariffs on all EU imports will likely hinder the EU’s already weak economic growth prospects in 2025. Primary EU exporters will likely face the biggest financial hit, including France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, and the Netherlands. The most potentially impacted industries will include medicinal and pharmaceutical products, motor vehicles and chemicals. 🔹 Overall, Eurasia is less likely to be significantly and directly affected by US-imposed tariffs than other regions given that China and/or Russia often stand as the main trading partners for Eurasian countries. 🔹 For South Asia, smaller economies will be concerned that US tariffs may impact their critical textile industries. India’s high tariffs will sustain the risk of reciprocal tariffs from the US despite active efforts from New Delhi to avoid being targeted, which could impact the auto part, jewellery and pharmaceutical sectors. 🔹 The East Asia and Pacific region could be heavily impacted. China’s slowing economy remains reliant on exports and is likely to respond to a trade war with a combination of reciprocal tariffs, restrictions on critical mineral supplies and increased regulatory scrutiny of China-based US firms. Taiwan will be concerned that tariffs on the semiconductor industry may dampen demand; US firms reliant on electrical components from the region could experience rising costs if these countries are targeted. 🔹 Trump is likely using the threat of tariffs across Latin America to coerce foreign governments to renegotiate trade agreements and co-operate with the US security agenda. Brazil and Mexico are most likely to be impacted by the announced tariffs. 🔹 In North America, any tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will raise operational costs for import-reliant sectors in the US. Canada’s economy will be severely impacted by US-imposed tariffs. The US is Canada’s top trading partner, rendering such impacts more acute. These regional updates are part of Sibylline's World Risk Register service, for which we are currently offering an extensive trial. If you would like to discuss a free trial, please email info@sibylline.co.uk. #RefinedInsight #US #Tarrifs #ForeignTrade

Ukraine's Path Forward: Strategic Insights into Geopolitical Negotiations and Military Support Following the recent meeting in the Oval Office between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday, 28 February, geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine's conflict continues to evolve. Justin Crump, our CEO, shares insights into the evolving Ukraine conflict and the current strategic landscape, focusing on diplomatic negotiations, military support, and potential pathways to a sustainable resolution. His analysis, shared with Deutsche Welle, includes the following key highlights: 🔹 Ukraine seeks a sustainable peace that prevents future aggression, with President Zelensky positioning for strategic negotiations that ensure national security. 🔹 US military aid suspension creates operational challenges, forcing Ukraine to explore alternative support mechanisms, domestic production, and European collaboration. 🔹 Despite aid limitations, Ukraine maintains its defensive capability, demonstrating resilience in a complex geopolitical environment. 🔹 The EU is mobilising substantial resources (approximately 800 billion euros) to support defence strategies, recognising the strategic importance of current interventions. Explore how geopolitical dynamics are reshaping international security: https://lnkd.in/envHfh-R