London Politica

The Central Asia and Caucasus programme presents its new series on 'De facto' and Autonomous Territories! Read the first piece by Lasse Steinmayer, where he examines recent developments and the political risk outlook of Nagorno-Karabakh. Executive Summary: - The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has reached a turning point following Azerbaijan’s September 2023 offensive. - This offensive led to the dissolution of the self-declared Republic of Artsakh and the mass exodus of over 100,000 Karabakh Armenians. - While peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have made progress, key obstacles remain, namely the withdrawal of international claims, and deployment of third-party forces. - Armenia’s 2026 elections introduce further uncertainty, with nationalist factions opposing concessions to Azerbaijan. - Militarisation on both sides, combined with stalled peace negotiations, raises the risk of renewed hostilities in the coming years. - The next year will be decisive in determining whether peace stabilises or conflict reignites. Full analysis: https://lnkd.in/eE-AnC7e #londonpolitica #politicalrisk #caucasus #territory #armenia #azerbaijan

Read the latest analysis in a two-part series on US foreign policy in Central Asia and the Caucasus regions by our analyst Robert Khandzhyan. Executive Summary: 📜 Trump’s second administration is most likely to maintain the historical US neglect of Central Asia, as foreign policy priorities lie elsewhere. 🚨 However, a significant change in the status quo and removal of existing hurdles could elevate Central Asia’s geostrategic importance to the US. ⚖️ In the continued absence of US engagement, Central Asian states will continue to seek balance between Chinese and Russian interests, which Trump will tacitly accept. Read part II here: https://lnkd.in/esXr8Xvp #londonpolitica #politicalrisk #foreignpolicy #unitedstates #centralasia

In #Syria, the jihadist group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham has assumed de facto authority following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. In a bid to reassure regional and global powers, and enable sanctions relief, the #HTS called for the establishment of an inclusive government. However, there remains a lingering threat of in-situ Jihadists within Syria, including transnational Jihadists, who may destabilise the region due to ideological differences with HTS. The governance model of HTS has not integrated ethno-religious diversity within its senior government ranks and risks alienating minorities if internecine violence persists between communities and is not addressed through stronger security arrangements and effective local-level governance and deterrence. With Syria facing a new chapter in its recent and tumultuous history, what are some of the political risks facing the country's transitional President, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Our #MENA Watch Desk Analyst Jack J. analyses the situation in Syria, and identifies some of the primary domestic political faultlines as the country moves towards the arduous task of reconstruction. ⬇ Read the Report below https://lnkd.in/e5qXekpc #MiddleEast #PoliticalRisk #LondonPolitica

📢 We’re Hiring: Chief of Staff at London Politica Applications close Friday, 7th March 2025 at 1700 GMT London Politica is a fast-growing political risk advisory firm providing strategic insights to businesses, governments, and organisations navigating geopolitical uncertainty. We’re looking for a Chief of Staff to work directly with our CEO, driving strategy, strengthening stakeholder engagement, and overseeing executive operations. 🔹 The Role ✅ Collaborate with the CEO to define and execute strategic priorities ✅ Manage relationships with diplomats, policymakers, journalists & corporate leaders ✅ Deliver high-impact political risk briefings for corporate and financial sector clients ✅ Prepare for and represent London Politica at key summits & private meetings ✅ Oversee thought leadership and the CEO’s professional public presence More information available at https://lnkd.in/dB4NzYAW 📩 How to Apply Send your CV & a tailored cover letter to chiefofstaffapplications@londonpolitica.com In your cover letter, briefly outline your interest in the role, how your experience aligns with our needs, and the unique strengths you bring to London Politica. 🕒 Applications close 7th March 2025

🇮🇩 With nine million members, the Pemuda Pancasila (PP) paramilitary organisation operates at the intersection between social activities and coercion. While engaged in community programs and electoral campaigning, it also wields influence through extortion and gang violence. Through an analysis of PP’s infrastructure and political ties in Jakarta and Medan, this report from Intelligence Analyst Jonah Lo reveals its resilience despite periodic crackdowns—raising critical concerns for businesses and civil society in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. ⬇ Read the Report below https://lnkd.in/ekQtM3z9

Apply now if interested! Applications close Friday 7th March at 1700 GMT.

New analysis out! 📢 🇪🇨🔍 Our Latin America Programme’s latest piece explores the national security and civil liberties risks posed by Chinese surveillance technology in Ecuador. With Ecuador owing $4.1 billion to China, Beijing’s control over key infrastructure and security data is expanding—raising serious sovereignty concerns. As U.S.-China tensions grow, Ecuador faces a difficult balancing act between economic ties and national security. Read the full analysis by Alejandro Dominguez here: https://lnkd.in/e2i-tvme #LatinAmerica #China #NationalSecurity #Ecuador

🚨 Major shift in European defence policy! 🚨 The EU has quietly taken a bold step towards deeper defence integration by creating a project group on a Defence Union. While this may not have grabbed headlines, it signals a significant transformation in how Europe approaches security and military cooperation. In Alexandre Doré latest report, I break down what this means: 🔹 The push for a single European defence market—a move that could shake up national defence industries. 🔹 The expansion of joint procurement—driving cost savings but raising geopolitical tensions. 🔹 The push for military mobility—reducing red tape to ensure European forces can move quickly in times of crisis. With key figures like Andrius Kubulius and Kaja Kallas leading the charge, this initiative could reshape Europe’s role in global security. But is this a step toward strategic autonomy—or a challenge to NATO? Download the full report to find out: https://lnkd.in/eVYGnGkA #EU #DefenceUnion #SecurityStrategy #Geopolitics #MilitaryInnovation #EuropeanSecurity

#Israel PM Benjamin #Netanyahu meets #US Secretary of State Marco Rubio amid #Gaza tensions. #Morocco claim on #WesternSahara sees growing acceptance from #France #Israel remains in southern #Lebanon despite deadline for withdrawal. #MENA Watch Desk of #LondonPolitica is thrilled to announce the third issue of our bi-weekly MENA Watch Desk Report, covering developments between 8 February and 21 February 2025! 🌎 Don't miss out on this essential briefing for professionals, policymakers, and anyone interested in MENA affairs. 🔍 Ready to dive deeper into MENA's geopolitical landscape? Comment below to share your thoughts or questions! #MENAWatch #GeopoliticalAnalysis #IntelligenceBriefing #RegionalInsights

🇬🇪 In the 2024 Georgian parliamentary elections, the diaspora overwhelmingly backed pro-Western opposition parties, sharply diverging from domestic results. Despite electoral barriers, its political and economic influence remains significant, with remittances making up 14% of Georgia’s GDP. Meanwhile, Russian-aligned and far-right European actors are leveraging disinformation to undermine protests calling for new elections and democratic reforms. Nora Zerelli analyses the diaspora's influence on political dynamics and the challenges posed by foreign interference. ⬇️ Read Nora Zerelli‘s full intelligence report here: https://lnkd.in/eXFNhsKA