Neckermann Strategic Advisors

Tariffs and Connected-Car Bans: Populist measures that are self-defeating and will backfire. Over 60% of non-food products sold at Wal-Mart are Made in China (supplier estimates). Shein is the 2nd largest online-only retailer in the US, after Amazon (2023), and the 4th largest across Europe. Temu is among the fastest-growing in both regions. Fashion and home electronics goods are sourced where they can be made most economically and of excellent quality. Right now, for western consumers, that happens to be from China. Why should cars be any different than your TV? Legacy OEMs seem to agree: Buick, Lincoln, MINI, Smart, Volvo, MG, and DR Italy are among the many “American” and “European” car brands that sell vehicles that happen to be built in China. In turn, China has historically (and I emphasize: historically) been a significant market, especially for German OEMs. The next wave has seen Chinese companies - like other “foreign” OEMs before - investing Billions in vehicle production across Europe and North America. The result is dynamic competition and fair prices. Even the largest labor union in Germany noted: "We say unequivocally: tariffs are the wrong approach because they will not improve the competitiveness of the European automotive industry." Local production avoids (most) tariffs, which keeps prices low and makes the consumer a winner. But even these investments are now at significant risk due to “spyware concerns”. In a slightly absurd tit-for-tat battle, the US Department of Commerce has proposed banning connected cars with Chinese software, suggesting that an “adversarial” foreign power has the potential to “eavesdrop”. Never mind the billions of connected consumer electronics made in China that are already in the hands of North American and European customers. Among those unduly impacted is Polestar, “a US-organized company and a subsidiary of a UK publicly limited company that is listed on the NASDAQ exchange in New York” with its HQ in Sweden and only 10% of staff in China. Its share-price is on the ropes as this plays out. Good article in Ars Technica below. Not good for #futuremobility investors, nor for US employment in the auto sector. https://lnkd.in/eNmSJDZQ Legacy brands built in China: https://lnkd.in/e74_4WrQ Germany votes against tariffs, and IG Metall quote: https://lnkd.in/eCCkyvyv Reuters story on Wal-Mart goods: https://lnkd.in/eSk-q4FB Mexico: https://lnkd.in/eCWwecqg Dunne on “Spy Machines” Michael Dunne

What is the value of the autonomous ridehailing “market"? Given Waymo’s 100,000 paid rides per week, an impending Tesla #robotaxi announcement of some sort (or not), the re-engagement of Uber, recent regulations on Chinese entrants, and a constant barrage of guesstimates from other consultancies and research institutes, we at Neckermann Strategic Advisors take a grain of salt to any specific number. As should you. You can make the numbers say whatever you want them to. It all depends on the assumptions you make on: 🏙️ The number of regions or cities deployed 🚗 Vehicles per deployment 🔢 Rides per vehicle per day/week 🤑 Number of competitors (permitted) 💵 Assumed revenue per ride (focus on growth or profitability?) 💸 Continued investment into as-yet unprofitable markets In terms of ride revenues, here’s a sample (and - we feel - conservative) base-case that estimates the size of the market at roughly 9 bn rides per year within a decade. Not unreasonable, and in the ballpark of Uber’s human-driven rides in 2024. But even this completely ignores a host of factors, including: 🤝 Partnerships that accelerate growth ⚖️ Legal and city-entry restrictions 📈 Induced demand (additionally mobile parts of the population) 🚌 Substitution effects through shifts in #mobilitybehavior 👮♀️ Regulatory changes that accelerate or limit the market 🧠 Human adoption and acceptance I’m curious - what assumptions would you be making? ----- We’ve spent about the last decade dissecting the #valuechain of shared, #autonomous #mobility. Aside from the few hundred Billion ￥€﹩in rides, enormous value will be extracted from other parts of the ecosystem: hardware, sensors, software (which elements of the stack), connectivity and data, building the PBVs, #fleetmanagement, maintenance, operations, #insurance, customer-facing services etc. This is where #futuremobility investors should be looking for value. Finally, it should also be said that this also ignores the enormous market for autonomous #logistics, #lastmiledelivery, #publictransport, and #paratransport. But that’s for another day...

Check out PAVE Europe's new website. Great work by Guido Di Pasquale and Nicola Hare - with support from PAVE - on creating a fresh design, and a highly usable calendar and collection of resources. PAVE Europe’s membership, news, and event schedule keeps growing! In particular, check out the working groups that are creating concepts and content for building trust, insurance, goods transportation, public transport and shared mobility. https://lnkd.in/ecsD_bvt Neckermann Strategic Advisors is proud to have helped to launch this essential organisation for building trust in #autonomous technology across all of Europe and beyond. I’m personally thrilled to continue my engagement as an (observing) Member of the Board of Directors, alongside TÜV Rheinland Group, Achmea, Allianz Center for Technology, EasyMile, Mobileye, Swiss Association for Autonomous Mobility (SAAM), Waymo, MOIA, and Partners for Automated Vehicle Education (PAVE)

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More news for both #futuremobility investors and the #autonomous community: The former P3 autonomous mobility (sister to Rimac Automobili) has rebranded and unveiled Verne, in partnership with Mobileye. The Verge notes, "Verne will be led by Rimac’s friend Marko Pejković as CEO and Adriano Mudri, the designer of Nevera, as chief designer.” And it shows: the #robotaxi is full of rider-friendly touches: sliding doors, a huge screen. The idea goes beyond the vehicle however: "Verne says every city will have a specialised area called the ‘Mothership’, where each vehicle will return for inspection, maintenance, cleaning and charging. It’ll act as the primary hub for Verne in each occupational city” (as summarized by TopGear) - meaning #fleetmanagement will (finally) play the role it deserves. We have been calling for #purposebuiltvehicles in #autonomous for a long time; the ill-fated Uber-Arrival partnership was well-meaning. Zoox is underway, as is the Cruise Origin. Waymo is logging impressive ride numbers, albeit with non-custom vehicles. Most others (think EasyMile, Baidu, Inc., Aurrigo, HOLON) are rightfully designed for #sharedautonomousmobility. Some 70 or 80 concepts (at last count) have circulated, with everything from 2 to 120 seats. “Not everybody likes cars, but almost everybody has a car today, because it's a necessity. Nowadays people who like horses still have horses,” says Pejković (echoing the #mobilityrevolution, 2014). This implies a service more suited to non-urban #mobility, however. The name is, of course, inspited by Jules Verne. But there is also a certain, #autonomous “Waterborne Urban Mobility” solution of the same name, from Poland: VERNE | 100% ELECTRIC, CONNECTED, AND AUTONOMOUS, see: https://verne.one/ As ever: a lot to be resolved, but we are again another step forward. Our thoughts on PBVs, from CES2024: https://lnkd.in/ev5TazQf TopGear’s take: https://lnkd.in/ek8Ff5Mu https://lnkd.in/ezaW3NSg Neckermann Strategic Advisors