Barclays Investment Bank

Barclays Research sees all 👀 on US growth as the main driver for the global economy. Even with the potential for a highly contested election that could have significant global economic implications, the US remains at the centre of global attention when it comes to #politics, #trade and #economics. And this prominence shows no signs of diminishing. Find out more with our Q4 24 Outlook: http://ms.spr.ly/6044mWaHI

INVESTOR UPDATE: Group CEO CS Venkatakrishnan and Global Co-Heads of Investment Banking Cathal Deasy and Taylor Wright shared an update on the progress made within Investment Banking since our three-year plan was announced on 20 February. Watch the replay: https://lnkd.in/ehqebrFn

📢 Hot off the press: Our Q3 Review of Shareholder Activism has been released to clients today. Here’s what Jim Rossman and the Investment Banking Shareholder Advisory team found in the data.👇 ✊ Activism continues at an elevated pace with 184 campaigns launched so far this year. 🆕 New activists continue to join the fray – with 22% of YTD campaigns launched by first-timers. 📈 Activists have pivoted from board change and M&A to more strategy and operations demands –which now account for 23% of campaigns YTD, compared to a 18% three-year average. 💼 CEO turnover at targeted companies has nearly doubled, with 20% of CEOs resigning within a year of activist campaigning. ⬇️ Activist board seat wins are tracking below average this year, complicating narratives about the #UPC.

Global economic forces to 👀 for the week of 30 September, according to our Research team. 👇 ◾ After the Fed's 50 bp rate cut, China surprised last week by signalling large demand stimulus. Meanwhile, weak European data point to accelerated #ECB rate cuts, and Japan's new PM is expected to continue #BoJ policy normalisation. ◾ Recent US #data underscored the resilience of the consumer-driven expansion, with historical revisions suggesting that household income has provided a much more significant tailwind. ◾ After revising their growth and inflation forecasts lower, our analysts now expect the European Central Bank to cut rates by 25 basis points in October, with consecutive 25 bp cuts until June 2025, targeting a terminal deposit rate of 2.0%. ◾ September UK #PMIs showed further signs of decelerating #GDP growth in the third quarter alongside weak employment and easing price growth. ◾ As China pledges more stimulus, our analysts see potential positive spillover benefits to the rest of EM Asia.

The profile of Europe’s trading partners is shifting. The growing emphasis on emerging markets and local currencies creates new FX and payment challenges for corporate treasurers. Ahead of this year’s #EuroFinance conference, our treasury experts look at the future of FX risk management: http://ms.spr.ly/6046mmpw2

AI’s hunger for power is set to outpace the US grid’s capacity to feed it. What impact could this growing energy appetite have on investment and corporate sustainability strategies? Our Research analysts explore the implications. Learn more in our 🔗 in comment.

We’re pleased to announce that Brad Rogoff is appointed Global Head of Research for Barclays. Brad’s deep knowledge of markets and sectors, along with his proven track record of delivering excellent solutions for clients makes him the right choice to take our Research strategy forward. Under his leadership, Barclays Research will continue its drive to deliver innovative and differentiated content for clients as they navigate today’s ever-changing environment. Read the press release: http://ms.spr.ly/6047mYNP3

👋 Meet Isabelle Millat, our Global Head of Sustainable Finance for Global Markets and Barclays Europe, who is helping clients identify the right business opportunities to achieve their #sustainability goals as they navigate the #netzero transition.

What an inspiring New York #ClimateAction Week engaging with clients and partners on the actions needed to support a resilient energy transition and drive a nature-positive economy.   The conversations underscored the need for pragmatic, multi-stakeholder collaboration focused on supporting three key areas:     🚀 The need to accelerate deployment. It’s time to move away from the complexity of custom projects and towards technology solutions that can be replicated at scale through standardized and simplified project development. 💡 The financial innovation to drive sustainable solutions. From green bonds to sustainability-linked solutions, new financial instruments are helping to mobilize capital for projects that address transition activity. 🌎 The need for policy stability. Consistent, long-term regulatory frameworks provide the confidence investors need to back investments in renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and innovate climate solutions.   As we navigate the complex challenges ahead, we are committed to convening stakeholders and developing actionable strategies that will help shape a more #sustainable, #climate, and #energy resilient future. Whether through innovative financing or stronger government policy frameworks, #ClimateWeekNYC has been a reminder to lock arms and share ideas to inspire progress and we are excited to continue this journey together. Thank you to everyone who joined us this week.

Congratulations to our Global Markets FX team for being recognised as both World’s Best Bank for FX Algos AND World’s Best FX bank for Real Money Clients at the 2024 Euromoney Foreign Exchange Awards. This is a great recognition of our persistent investment in innovative market technology to deliver a best-in-class service for our clients. Torsten Schoeneborn, Mimi Rushton, Jerry Minier, Lucinda Lawrence, Paul Debourdeau.