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Great discussion with Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy CIO at DoubleLine, about the fixed income market and his outlook in this week's podcast episode: https://lnkd.in/gfvwWeNM
DoubleLine is an independent, employee-owned money management firm, founded in 2009. The firm offers a wide array of investment strategies run by an experienced team of portfolio managers that has worked together for many years, employing active risk management, in-depth research, and innovative product solutions. Led by CEO-CIO Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine was founded in 2009 when Mr. Gundlach came to believe his goal of asset management excellence was not shared by owners of the firm that his team had built to prominence over the preceding 24 years. "Active management permeates all stages of the investment process. Starting with the top-down macroeconomic outlook, which influences sector rotation, yield curve positioning and credit exposures, to the bottom-up security selection, each step in the process is focused on finding the best reward-to-risk opportunities." -Jeffrey Sherman, CFA, DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer
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DoubleLine reposted this
Great discussion with Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy CIO at DoubleLine, about the fixed income market and his outlook in this week's podcast episode: https://lnkd.in/gfvwWeNM
“Stability leads to instability. The more stable things become and the longer things are stable, the more unstable they will be when the crisis hits.” – Hyman Minsky #volatility #seasonality #stocks
It has been more than four years since the COVID pandemic forced many office workers to work from home leaving office buildings largely vacant around the world. During that period, there were predictions that employees would mostly return to their offices just as they did in the pre-pandemic era while others suggested that a ‘new normal’ with more remote or ‘hybrid’ work arrangements would prevail. It appears that the latter is correct. #WFH #jobs #CRE #CMBS
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While gains in unemployment and moderation in labor demand have sparked fears of a fragile consumer, we are not seeing a pullback in travel. Even though other factors might be supporting demand for airline seats, the true health of the consumer appears to be up in the air.
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Looking at market expectations via an inflation derivatives market known as “CPI fixings”, the next headline year-over-year CPI reading is expected to be 2.9%. This would be the lowest year-over-year inflation figure since March 2021. This week’s chart shows the number of consecutive months when the headline CPI year-over-year inflation rate has been 3.0% or higher. If the aforementioned market expectations turn out to be correct, the current streak of 3% or higher for U.S. inflation rate will have ended with June 2024. #inflation #Fed #bonds
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DoubleLine’s Robert Cohen, CFA and Chris Stegemann analyze private credit, its expansion beyond middle-market lending in the pandemic-ushered corporate capital vacuum and the end of the attractiveness of that trade with the recovery of the liquid credit markets.
On Friday August 2nd, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the much-anticipated July jobs report. The report showed the economy added 114,000 jobs during the month, a significant slowdown from prior months and well below the 175,000 consensus estimates. Fears that the Fed may be “behind the curve”, holding policy rates in restrictive territory for too long, fueled a selloff in global equities and credit and a rally in government bonds. While the July data no doubt signals a slowdown in the labor market, there may be reason to take the report with a pinch of salt. #rates #economy #recession
DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman discusses rate market volatility, his outlook for bonds and an economic "firm landing." #jobs #Fed #inflation #recession
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On June 18th, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan analytical arm of U.S. Congress, released its latest outlook on the federal budget and U.S. economy. By 2034, they project federal debt held by the public to climb to 122% as a share of GDP, surpassing the previous high last seen during the Second World War. The CBO has been regularly making projections on federal deficits and debt levels since the organization’s inception in 1974. This week’s chart shows the evolution of the CBO’s projections of federal debt-to-GDP going back to the early 1980s along with the actual debt-to-GDP. #debt #economy #forecasts
DoubleLine CEO and Founder Jeffrey Gundlach joins CNBC’s Scott Wapner on Fed Day, July 31, 2024, sharing his outlook for 150 bps of fed funds rate cuts by a year from now, his gradualistic allocation from floating to fixed rate, his expectation of recession and navigating in an America on the cusp of major change and a world of dangerous geopolitics. https://lnkd.in/gisUaU4M