GeoQuant

Since 1 July 2016, GeoQuant has correctly predicted 76% of electoral outcomes. This week we highlight GeoQuant’s election forecast for 4 geopolitically significant elections in Q2: #Ecuador, #Gabon, #Romania, and #Albania. --Ecuador: The second-round presidential contest looks like a toss-up for which our model slightly favors incumbent President Noboa. Whoever wins, Noboa or his leftist opponent González, their agenda will be constrained by the lack of a legislative majority (see figure). --Gabon: In line with our election model, we expect “incumbent” President (and General) Oligui Nguema to win the first contest since the August 2023 coup, assisted by incumbency advantages and a divided opposition.  --Romania: A mainstream candidate likely wins a close presidential contest in which the deeply divided country’s EU-oriented foreign and defense policies are at stake.  --Albania: Although its long reign and alleged corruption pose risks to the incumbent, the Socialist Party of Albania remains likely to secure a fourth consecutive term on 11 May. Please visit www.geoquant.com or schedule a demo info@geoquant.com to learn more. #Geopolitics #PoliticalRisk #Elections

Today we feature four stories highlighting recent, high-impact political risk trends with market implications.    -- #UnitedStates: President Trump’s erratic foreign and trade policies lift gold price while reversing recent S&P 500 gains and weakening the outlook for growth (see figure). -- #Argentina: Milei employed decree power to sidestep Senate opposition to an IMF deal that would increase borrowing with the objective of removing capital controls to spur foreign direct investment. -- #Kenya: President Ruto’s position strengthened after signing a legislative pact with the opposition ODM in a move that is expected to exacerbate tension with the remaining opposition parties. -- #Portugal: A third election in three years will take place on 18 May after the government lost a vote of confidence it tabled itself following an opposition demand for an inquiry into the PM’s family law firm. Please visit www.geoquant.com or schedule a demo info@geoquant.com to learn more. #Geopolitics #PoliticalRisk

The breakdown in communication between the US and Ukraine two weeks ago, raises myriad questions, from the near-term state of the peace process in the #Ukraine War, to the further-reaching framework of great power dynamics. Our guest on #STTStreetSignals details the roles played in an emergent world order by the #US, #Europe, #Russia and #China are in flux, and we face potentially the most momentous reorientation in #geopolitics since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Tsveta Petrova is a lecturer in political science at Columbia University and an analyst and consultant for GeoQuant, a political risk consultancy and one of our research partners. https://lnkd.in/dUKQw-Tx

The breakdown in communication between the US and Ukraine two weeks ago, raises myriad questions, from the near-term state of the peace process in the #Ukraine War, to the further-reaching framework of great power dynamics. Our guest on #STTStreetSignals details the roles played in an emergent world order by the #US, #Europe, #Russia and #China are in flux, and we face potentially the most momentous reorientation in #geopolitics since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Tsveta Petrova is a lecturer in political science at Columbia University and an analyst and consultant for GeoQuant, a political risk consultancy and one of our research partners. https://lnkd.in/dUKQw-Tx

U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy has upended the future of the Russia-Ukraine war after the suspension of military aid for Ukraine and realignment toward Russia. The U.S.’ sudden abdication puts short-term pressure on European partners to step up in Ukraine and long-term pressure to reduce their self-reliance on U.S. security guarantees in the region. The U.S. pivot toward Russia signals a major shift in the Russia-Ukraine war, undermining Ukraine’s ability to both continue fighting and negotiate a favorable deal. This outcome is simulated in the figure below as a "Major Pivot", indicating a significant shift toward Russia in our Battlefield momentum scenario.  European support for Ukraine remains undefined but will likely be insufficient to replace U.S. aid and short-lived, putting Ukraine in an even weaker bargaining position. Please visit www.geoquant.com or schedule a demo info@geoquant.com to learn more. #Geopolitics #PoliticalRisk #Russia #Ukraine

Today we feature three stories highlighting recent, high-impact political risk trends with market implications.   -- #Germany:  Macroeconomic Policy and External Security Pulse Risks are falling as incoming Chancellor Merz’s shift on fiscal and security policies likely brings a positive sea change in growth and regional defense (see figure). -- #Austria: Three centrist parties, led by the OVP, sidelined the far-right FPÖ which won a plurality in the September 2024 election, formed a pro-EU coalition that will face severe deficit constraints as it tries to kickstart its flagging economy.  -- #Türkiye: Political Violence Pulse Risk is decreasing sharply following the pivotal ceasefire call from the PKK leader, yet Rule of Law Pulse Risk remains high due to continuing political repression.  Please visit www.geoquant.com or schedule a demo info@geoquant.com to learn more. #Geopolitics #PoliticalRisk

Last week Mark Rosenberg, Founder and Co-Head of GeoQuant spoke at Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP)'s 2025 Financial Risk Symposium in New York.    Mark hosted an insightful session: 'Geopolitics and Its Impact on Markets and Risk in 2025', and discussed what organizations can do to systematically integrate geopolitics into risk management frameworks. If you did not attend the event, but would like to learn more about GeoQuant from one of our experts - request a demo here: https://ow.ly/7i8n50VcvGO #GeopoliticalRisk #Risk #Geopolitics

Attending Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP)'s 2025 Financial Risk Symposium tomorrow in New York?   Make sure to catch the Geopolitics session hosted by Mark Rosenberg, Founder and Co-Head of GeoQuant! Mark will be speaking on Thursday, March 6th from 10am -10.30am on 'Geopolitics and Its Impact on Markets and Risk in 2025'.   He will be discussing the biggest geopolitical risks for financial markets in 2025 and what organizations can do to systematically integrate geopolitics into risk management frameworks. Access the full event agenda here: https://ow.ly/tnv050VbjVv   If you are not attending the event, but want to learn more about GeoQuant from one of our experts, please request a demo here: https://ow.ly/Q2lj50VbjVw #GeopoliticalRisk #Geopolitics #Risk

The EM-ification of U.S. politics continues to accelerate under Trump reflected in efforts to effect domestic regime change, without adhering to democratic practice. The political mayhem exacerbates climbing uncertainty over fiscal risks ahead of a government funding deadline in mid-March and spending cuts scheduled in April tied to debt ceiling extension. Internationally, Trump’s trade war and growing political alignment with Russia is a turning point in U.S. foreign policy, with knock-on effects for global security relations, as reflected in much elevated IR and Investment/Trade Pulse Risks since Trump's inauguration. Please visit www.geoquant.com or schedule a demo info@geoquant.com to learn more. #Geopolitics #PoliticalRisk

This morning Mark Rosenberg, Founder and Co-Head of GeoQuant spoke on the 'Geopolitical Strategy: Neoisolationism Versus U.S. Primacy' panel at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) 41st Annual Economic Policy Conference. Mark was joined by Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Everett Eissenstat and moderator Elaine Buckberg on today's insightful panel. If you are not attending the event, but would like to learn more about GeoQuant from one of our experts - request a demo here: https://ow.ly/Hb2e50Vat3P