Morning Consult

In today's charged geopolitical climate, there's a risk of conflating economic and geopolitical drivers of policymaking in ways that matter for both the private and public sectors, and which our high-frequency data can help to elucidate. Indonesia's latest bout of tariffs -- largely viewed as targeting China -- is a case in point. In the United States and Europe, recent bouts of tariff imposition targeting China — which have increasingly been tied to national security concerns — have coincided with net negative and periodically worsening views of China. Not so for Indonesia: Net favorability toward China among Indonesian adults has been trending gradually upwards since late 2021 when we first began tracking it, and has remained elevated following the tariff announcement, as we wrote about today in our Counter/Consensus email briefing. As Indonesia-watchers at The Diplomat have noted, the rationale for the tariffs was more economic than geopolitical, and “the issue has not been securitized in Indonesia to the extent that it has in the United States and other parts of the democratic West.”   For those who might be inclined to view Indonesia’s latest tariff maneuvers as a tipping of the geopolitical needle in favor of the West at China’s expense, our data sounds a clear cautionary note that the two are not clearly related at present. For those interested in more: Sign up for Counter/Consensus here (it's free): https://lnkd.in/ebuXsjGm You'll find The Diplomat reference here: https://lnkd.in/gn882sAr

An alarming debate performance, an assassination attempt, the Republican National Convention and a last-minute changeup at the top of the ticket: The first half of the summer featured a tumultuous few weeks in American politics. Our political analysts explored the state of public opinion in the aftermath of Joe Biden dropping out of the race in this webinar, available here for on-demand viewing.

Egalité holds strong. Fraternité is on the rocks. That's the TL:DR of my post election analysis in France using Morning Consult's monthly data on policy preferences split by those holding left-wing and right- wing views. The full analysis is here: https://lnkd.in/gi7zWTSQ France is highly polarized, with one of the smallest centers of anywhere we survey. The good news is the left and the right agree on quite a lot: equality, workers rights, and the role of the state in markets all see fairly close agreement across the political spectrum (unlike in the U.S.). But they sharply disagree on cultural pluralism. Because of this, and because the election results failed to deliver a clear outcome for voters, we expect increased political uncertainty characterized by intensifying culture wars, punctuated by political unrest.

As part of an ongoing partnership with Bloomberg News, my colleague and U.S. political analyst Eli Yokley has published an initial wave of post-debate research looking at the Biden-Trump matchup among swing-state voters, finding that the state of the race remains relatively unchanged (i.e. the topline head-to-head numbers remain relatively stable across the swing-state map), subject to two substantive caveats: (1) a majority of swing-state voters think Biden should leave the race, and (2) swing-state voters are increasingly focused on VP selection. For those keeping an eye on post-debate shifts in sentiment among U.S. voters, Eli's work is well worth a read. You can find it here: https://lnkd.in/ed5syaHw See here for the corresponding Bloomberg reporting: https://lnkd.in/ey-Jh8YR

We just released results of our post-debate flash poll of registered voters, with analysis by Eli Yokley and Cameron Easley. You're going to want to read this: https://lnkd.in/g8vXvKq5 Some main points: -A clear majority of debate-viewing voters (57%) say Trump performed best on Thursday. -A 47% plurality of Democrats, say Biden should be replaced as the Democratic candidate for president. -The Biden campaign viewed last night’s debate as another opportunity to assuage concerns about his age and mental acuity, but that didn’t work: Among debate viewers, 78% say Biden is too old, compared with 64% of all voters who said the same days before the debate.

I published the Q2 update to our Global Political Polarization Rankings today. France catches the eye with its high share of those holding right wing views, but it hasn't seen a big increase in recent months, and at 18% those espousing far-right ideology are fewer than the >30% who voted for the right in European Parliament elections. It's one to watch this month heading into snap elections where the far right is hoping to gain ground. For clients, chart downloads reveal where polarization is rising or falling. Particularly interesting shifts seem to be underway in Canada and Australia. https://lnkd.in/gvvNKQz8

Cannes, France… we’ll see you soon! ✈ If you haven’t already, mark your calendar for Monday, June 17 at 4 p.m. to catch Morning Consult’s SVP of Sales Taylor Ashy joining The Female Quotient's Equality Lounge daily ‘Manel’ stage. Alongside fellow male leaders, they’ll unpack topics and questions typically geared towards women — it’s a conversation you won’t want to miss! 💡 Full details and RSVP here: https://lnkd.in/gPj9Zfi5 #CannesLions2024 #Cannes

Our fifth annual Most Trusted Brands report is here! This year, we’re expanding our rankings to include more brands than ever before — 118 brands are included across our 14 rankings — from long-standing brands like UPS and Colgate to newer entrants such as ChatGPT and Spotify. This report also drills down into the demographic variables that shape trust in the United States — specifically gender and generation — including rankings of the brands that are most trusted by those demographics, as well as the ones that stand out among each group.

We’re heading to Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity to join The Female Quotient’s Equality Lounge June 17-20 at Hôtel Martinez. Will we see you there? Don’t miss Morning Consult’s SVP of Sales Taylor Ashy joining the daily ‘Manel’ stage alongside other male leadership on Monday, June 17 at 4 p.m. to unpack the complexities of work-life balance, career growth and family. 💡   RSVP here: https://lnkd.in/gPj9Zfi5

Americans may be holding their collective breath until November, but Europeans are heading to the polls over the next few days to elect members of the E.U. parliament. On this side of the Atlantic, our eyes may start to glaze over when trying to understand trans-national E.U. parliamentary blocs, party lists and so-called spitzenkandidaten. But this stuff matters. Among other things, Europe's top bureaucrat the E.U. Commission President (currently Ursula Von der Leyen) will need the new parliament's nod. One player anticipated to get a boost in Brussels is Giorgia Meloni, with her Brothers of Italy expected to more than triple their seats amid an overall shift right. I take a look at Meloni's approval rating among various political groups in Italy heading into this weekend's vote, and at the demographics of her party for clues on likely turnout to see if Meloni will indeed become a queenmaker come July. https://lnkd.in/gWeiN-jZ