Grey Swan Guild - Making better sense of the world together

Futures Month and The Hunt for Grey Swans contnues.... Tool No. 6 - Weak Signals - Small Things Before Becoming Big Things We explore this not just as a concept but as a four step framework to spot and leverage the signal from the noise. Plus we have included: - the four sources of weak signals noise, - six habits of weak signal experts, and - the four types of weak signals. Weak signals are defined as advance, unclear observables that could help predict future states and identify potential disruptions. They carry vague information about tomorrow that can foretell us about the future developments. They are constructed by data and information, but require some level of interpretation of something emerging. Our accompanying commentary: “Weak signals analyses is like being a line cook in a fast moving kitchen. So much chaos is happening, so little time is involved, and so many ingredients can be pulled together into some final plate. Get any of it wrong and customers may go hungry. Effective intelligence chefs can juggle this ecosystem of influences to positively affect and promote fast-moving behaviour of its well practicing clients and companies. The quality of the offering reflects on the calibre of ingredients, cooking process, chef acumen and bringing the plate to the table on time. In weak signals, we call this scanning, filtering, focusing and acting. ” Sean Moffitt Give it a read, and find out better ways to look at possibilities, wild cards and grey swans by our full collection. Perhaps join us on our upcoming "The Radar" podcast or Cygnus Publishing venture if you'd like to go deeper. https://lnkd.in/gaFw4Qz3 #futureproofing #greyswans #wildcards #possibilities #futures #weaksignals Radar Collection - Trend Report Series Weathervanes Research & Intelligence Group Futureproofing - The Future Beyond Innovation Dr. Tuomo Kuosa Lukas Schober Ashkan Ebadi Zbysław Dobrowolski Vinod Kumar Singh Romain Gauthier Jari Kaivo-oja mohamed Ali Jemma Iles Isaac Vivian Kevin Fortune Yvan Gauthier Adam Walker Pascal Wicht Agustin Borrazas Mercedes Baltazar Lobato Oshawn Jefferson, Steven Lichty

Futures Month and The Hunt for Grey Swans: Tool No. 5 - Futures Wheel - The Cone of Possibilities - The Long Tail of Futures - plus a bonus I have included the 11 reasons why it's worth it to chase Grey Swans The Cone of Possibilities (sometimes simply called The Futures Cone or the Voros' Cone) is a future and foresight framework ideally suited for Grey Swan analyses as it rejects the notion that the future is linear but instead has a kaleidoscope of six-seven ranges of expanding futures the further you extend it out. The taxonomy of different futures gets its start with Norman Henchey from McGill University School of Information Studies in 1978 and built on by a number of others Joseph Voros of Swinburne University of Technology in early 2000s. For those likely one right answer, sadly for you the futures really are splintered into six P parts of the cone. - Preposterous Futures - Possible Futures - Plausible Futures - Probable Futures - Preferable Futures  - Projected Futures Our accompanying commentary: “The Cone of Possibilities feels like an almost scientific truth about futures, perhaps no coincidence its genesis story has a physics component. One of the best taxonomies and visual heuristics to remind champions that the future is truly owned by many masters. As a popular and established approach, the six-splintered cone validates and recognizes the true value of Grey Swans within its possible and preposterous futures, and does not merely dismiss them off to the side like crazy uncles. In practical application, it usually gets played with and adapted into other tools and templates, to improve its actionable value within workshops or planning efforts.” Sean Moffitt Give it a read, and find out better ways to look at possibilities, wild cards and grey swans by our full collection. Perhaps join us on our upcoming "The Radar" podcast or Cygnus Publishing venture if you'd liek to go deeper. https://lnkd.in/gaFw4Qz3 #futureproofing #greyswans #wildcards #possibilities #futures #futureswheel #coneofpossibilities Radar Collection - Trend Report Series Weathervanes Research & Intelligence Group Futureproofing - The Future Beyond Innovation Jörgen van der Sloot Amy Lee Martina Agostini Jason Swanson Beata Kalamar Peter Horvath Nicoletta Boldrini Callum Fergie Mille Bojer Felix Koch ⭐️ Emily Djock Ron Kersic Ingrid Furtado Anne Chevalier Stéphane Giron Alexis Tennent Dr. Alexander Kaplun Megan Mitchell Jean-Pierre Veilleux Olga Patel Ievgen Kylymnyk Asha Singhal Sebastian Baumann

Futures Month and The Hunt for Grey Swans: Tool No. 4 - Futures Wheel - Where Could This Go - it's a popular straightforward framework, with cascading circles of implications and ramifications this one courtesy of Jerome Glenn of the The Millennium Project (who also coined the term "futuring") On this tool, the impetus is to keep asking the question - "and then what might happen? and then what might happen?" Extra points for fundamentally different answers than what might be considered normal, linear or expected. Our accompanying commentary: “The Futures Wheel is akin to those ‘choose your own plotline’ detective books I used to read as a kid. Even the most straight-laced of professionals can get excited and loosely play with the tool because that is the expectation at the end of it (professionals hate not achieving a goal). It represents a fundamental improvement over get-your-3M-stickies out, straight ahead brainstorming as it emanates from a central concern, logically links from almost certainty to more remote probabilities, and visual connects the thinking trail.. Although not a solution tool by itself, it creates a great visual on-ramp to action and innovation. A favored offsite and remote collboration framework in the Grey Swan thinkers’ arsenal.” Sean Moffitt Give it a read, and find out better ways to look at possibilities, wild cards and grey swans. https://lnkd.in/gp7xCqFr #futureproofing #greyswans #wildcards #possibilities #futures #futureswheel Radar Collection - Trend Report Series Weathervanes Research & Intelligence Group Futureproofing - The Future Beyond Innovation Gina Clifford Debaditya Sekhar Jena W. Clayton Bunyard, Edward Niedbalski Adam Alonzi Dr Phillip Daffara Dr Elissa Farrow Kent Elmann Cadalin Sónia Romão Dawod Almaqrae Hazel Ng Kah Wai Anne Mecklin Mona Hille Saija Toivonen Anahita Rashidfarokhi Meryl Dix Tarica Mikko Tuominen Pouyan Bizeh Anna Ernst Eszter Monda, Ania Santana

Futures Month and The Hunt for Grey Swans: Tool No. 3 - superCAFFEINATED U - Harnessing and Concocting with Uncertainties - a new-to-the world foresight tool - this one courtesy of our guild book Uncertainty (Cygnus Publishing) and a foresight tool driven by the eleven drivers of uncertainty, stress and disruption. Think of VUCA just modelled for a much more layered and chaotic 21st century. Accompanying commentary: “Good, bad or indifferent, uncertainty is one of the most powerful forces that drives the world’s events and developments. A lot of uncertainty drives Grey Swans. And from peoples’ recent assessments, we are collectively experiencing more uncertainty now than we ever have in the past. Until now, we had an incomplete view of uncertainty that did not truly and fully reflect what drives it. Our newly developed superCAFFEINATED framework translates this uncertainty full view into a comprehensive emerging trend framework. If you are serious about hunting Grey Swans, and are a keen observer of what’s changing around you, and inside you, this method is a surefire winner for you.” Sean Moffitt Give it a read, and find out better ways to look at possibilities, wild cards and grey swans. https://lnkd.in/gRNeiS-U #futureproofing #greyswans #wildcards #futures #supercaffeinatedu #uncertainties Radar Collection - Trend Report Series Weathervanes Research & Intelligence Group Futureproofing - The Future Beyond Innovation Ben Pring Thiago Luiz Berlim Maggie Greyson Noah Flower Meddie Versteeg Minna Koskelo -Tulevaisuusmuotoilija Kelly Kornet Weber April Reagan Noriko Wynn Tanja Schindler Dennis D Draeger Bridgette Engeler Ryan Hogan Sean Daken Rob Gear Sanjay Khanna Elias Mouawad, MSc

Futures Month and The Hunt for Grey Swans: Tool No. 2 - SCAMPER - Plating with Convention - this one courtesy of Advertising executive Alex Osborn, inventor of brainstorming (he was the O in agency colossus BBDO Worldwide), followed by Bob Eberle, author and education administrator. “In many arenas of life, we frequently throw old stuff out before it’s past its due date, whether good or bad. As an emerging trend framework, SCAMPER has some real power in looking at, and then pivoting from conventional thinking. Impressive new thinking can be unlocked even with the smallest of input changes. The side benefit from SCAMPER use is that it also helps generate, and almost legislates, imaginative lateral thinking amongst its participants. There may be a good reason why it has stood strong as a framework over its 80+ year test of time.” Sean Moffitt Give it a read, and find out better ways to look at possibilities, wild cards and grey swans. https://lnkd.in/gehkhk-H #futureproofing #greyswans #wildcards #futures #SCAMPER Radar Collection - Trend Report Series Weathervanes Research & Intelligence Group Sean Moffitt Shams Hamid Jonas Gissel Mikkelsen Sohail Inayatullah Anna B. Tamira Vámosi-Snell Abril Chimal Michelle van Rooyen Maya Van Leemput Raquel Valença john a. sweeney Justin Baumgardner

Futures Month and The Hunt for Grey Swans: Tool No. 1 - CIPHER - this one courtesy of Amy Webb from Future Today Institute 'The moment I spotted the CIPHER tool I realized somebody had captured the true value of counter-intuition in building future value for business. Most trend reports merely synthesize what’s well on the road to happening, CIPHER goes out of its way to identify the ‘about to be potentially breaking’. It’s also comprehensive in exploring the edge space without being overwhelming. This one is a fave but I’m not surprised, most of Amy Webb’s stuff smells like future roses.” Give it a read, and find out better ways to look at possibilities, wild cards and grey swans. https://lnkd.in/gS-iGe-W #futureproofing #greyswans #wildcards #futures #cipher Radar Collection - Trend Report Series Weathervanes Research & Intelligence Group Sean Moffitt Ian Beacraft Wensupu(Wen) Yang, Kwabena Amo-Nyarko Jr Renier Zandberg Miguel Jiménez Hugh Forrest James Clampett Shilpi Kumar Harper Chew Pedro Rocha Cheryl Doig Rob Warner JP Charlotte Kemp

The Daily Perplexity... Knowledge Works? Elon Musk and fine folks at XAI... release new software to embed AI into other applications using what's called an API. https://lnkd.in/gnvx_pf3 One of the big features of Grok, the AI co-pilot that's part of X, and this API is that it's supposed to be funny or has a sense of humor depending how you look at it that is designed by the company. What is unusual also about this AI is that it is trained.. or created depending on how you look at it based on the volume is feed of human interaction on x... that makes it smart in a different way than the other AI tools that have trained on its history but not his current results since Elon Musk threatened to sue anyone using "the fire hose" and the past posts that is the history of Twitter and now X. This should spawn a series of silly applications or serious ones depending on how you look at it. XAI will likely be a Unicorn for the rest of its life... Because it will always have a unique signal, until it is replaced, like all news sharing and news generation applications have been replaced by more advanced technology... And we're talking from signal fires, to the Pony Express and the Telegraph.. things get replaced. #ai #news #perplexity

#theWrap - The operating manual of Starlinkink Intenet Access 1. Plug it in... 2. Point at the sky.... (this is what it is meant by tech becoming invisible) //TheEnd

Meanwhile in Toronto #TheWrap #HeatWave 21⁰c. Oct 20, 2024. 🌞

https://lnkd.in/gvQ2eRAz The Daily Perplexity: AI Power causes uncertainty. The Guild tries to measure uncertainty. Is this the right measure? Will this cause painic? Do we need another dooms day clock? "The AI Safety Clock has sparked significant debate within the AI community and beyond. While it has raised awareness about potential risks, critics argue that it oversimplifies complex issues and may promote undue alarmism. Unlike nuclear weapons, which formed the basis for the original Doomsday Clock, artificial general intelligence (AGI) does not yet exist, making the AI Safety Clock's doomsday scenario largely speculative..." #ai Impact and Critiques... The AI Safety Clock has sparked significant debate within the AI community and beyond. While it has raised awareness about potential risks, critics argue that it oversimplifies complex issues and may promote undue alarmism[1][2]. Unlike nuclear weapons, which formed the basis for the original Doomsday Clock, artificial general intelligence (AGI) does not yet exist, making the AI Safety Clock's doomsday scenario largely speculative[3]. Despite these criticisms, the initiative has had broader impacts: * Establishment of AI safety institutes in countries like the UK, US, and Japan to research risks and develop testing frameworks[4] * Increased calls for collaboration between AI developers and safety professionals[5] * Emphasis on principles like accountability and transparency in AI development[5] * Contribution to global discussions on AI governance, as seen in the Seoul declaration signed by over twenty countries[4] While the debate continues on the effectiveness of such symbolic representations, the AI Safety Clock has undeniably stimulated important conversations about balancing innovation with responsible AI development[2][4]. Citations: [1] IMD launches AI Safety Clock - IMD business school for management and leadership courses https://lnkd.in/gNveRPi2 [2] The AI Safety Clock Can Help Save Us | TIME https://lnkd.in/gv5QP_dQ [3] The AI Safety Clock - Here’s What It Tells Us About Existential Risks - https://lnkd.in/gZg2tgc4 [4] The Importance of AI Safety Institutes https://lnkd.in/gWCawzgX [5] California's Draft AI Law Would Protect More than Just People | TIME https://lnkd.in/gV77VTtC