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Payrolls Plunge • Yields Jump • Earnings Updates REIT Daily Recap: https://lnkd.in/eBK7Eiyi U.S. equity markets rebounded Friday while benchmark interest rates surged to three-month highs despite a disappointing nonfarm payrolls report showing the weakest pace of hiring last month since 2020. The critical BLS Nonfarm Payrolls report this morning showed that the U.S. economy added just 12k jobs in October - well below consensus estimates of 106k. The report was notably weaker under the surface. The Establishment Survey - which is used the calculate the unemployment rate - showed job declines of nearly 400k in October. Private employment declined by 28k during the month, fueled by the largest plunge in manufacturing employment since the pandemic shutdown, along with declines in retail, transportation, and hospitality. Despite the disappointing economic data, benchmark interest rates surged to fresh three-month highs today as traders took positions ahead of next week's one-two punch of major market events next week - the Presidential Election and the Fed Rate Decision. REIT Academy & The Executive REIT Masterclass | The Daily REIT Beat Newsletter | Brad Thomas | #REITs #Dividends #Investing #Income #Yield #RealEstate #Housing #Stocks #Bonds #HighYield #DividendInvesting #IncomeInvesting #Diversification #Inflation #realassets #investment

REIT Earnings Halftime Report https://lnkd.in/eJue3VTu We're at the halfway point of another consequential real estate earnings season, with 77 of the 150 equity REITs and 20 of the 38 mortgage REITs now having reported results. Beneath the interest rate-related volatility, real estate earnings season is off to a solid start. Of the 65 equity REITs that provided full-year FFO guidance, 65% have raised their outlook. Notable upside standouts relative to expectations include Strip Center and Senior Housing REITs - both of which continued to deliver record-setting results with impressive rent growth and occupancy trends. While there haven't been any major bombshells to date, results from Cell Tower REITs were disappointing and messy amid major restructuring moves from both major REITs. Results from residential REITs have also been moderately disappointing, showing further downward pressure in rent growth in early Autumn. In this report, we assign Halftime Grades to each property sector and highlight some quick incremental positives and negatives we've observed across each of the major property sectors. REIT Academy & The Executive REIT Masterclass | The Daily REIT Beat Newsletter | Brad Thomas | Alex Pettee, CFA | David Auerbach | #REITs #Dividends #Investing #Income #Yield #RealEstate #Housing #Stocks #Bonds #HighYield #DividendInvesting #IncomeInvesting #Diversification #Inflation #realassets #investment

Stocks Dip • Inflation Uptick • Earnings Updates REIT Daily Recap: https://lnkd.in/e5efSiiM U.S. equity markets dipped Thursday while benchmark interest rates hovered around three-month highs after closely watched PCE inflation data was hotter than expected in September. The Core PCE Price Index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - posted its biggest monthly gain since April. The report showed resilient consumer spending but also signs of firming price pressures. Posting its worst day in over a month, the S&P 500 dipped 2.0% today - pacing for a second-straight week of declines - while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 378 points. Real estate equities were under similar pressure today despite another relatively solid slate of REIT earnings results over the past 24 hours. The Equity REIT Index slipped 1.7% today. Farmland Partners (FPI) rallied 6% after reporting solid third-quarter results and promising a significant special dividend after selling off roughly a third of its portfolio. FPI highlighted its $500M of farmland asset sales during the quarter, which it used to significantly reduce its debt load. Residential REITs were among the laggards today, as a busy slate of results over the past 24 hours showed further softening in rent growth trends over recent months. Equity Residential (EQR) dipped 5% after reporting mixed results, as buoyant renewal rent growth across most of its markets was offset by "weakness in the city of Los Angeles and in our Expansion Markets." REIT Academy & The Executive REIT Masterclass | The Daily REIT Beat Newsletter | Brad Thomas | Alreits Research | #REITs #Dividends #Investing #Income #Yield #RealEstate #Housing #Stocks #Bonds #HighYield #DividendInvesting #IncomeInvesting #Diversification #Inflation #realassets #investment

REITs Rebound • Earnings Updates • Chip Dip REIT Daily Recap: https://lnkd.in/eeiYqBxj U.S. equity markets slumped Wednesday as investors parsed downbeat earnings results from several key AI-oriented chip stocks, while strong ADP payrolls data lifted benchmark interest rates to three-month highs. ADP Payrolls data topped estimates, showing private sector job growth of 233k in September - above consensus forecasts of 110k. Consistent with the "Goldilocks" dynamic, wage inflation continued to cool with pay gains for job-stayers moderating to 4.6% - the slowest since April 2021. Real estate equities were among the outperformers today, however, on another relatively strong slate of REIT earnings results showing a notable rebound in external growth activity. Among the highlights of a busy slate of REIT earnings reports: Skilled nursing REIT CareTrust (CTRE) rallied 3% after reporting strong results driven by robust acquisition activity. Boston Properties (BXP) - the largest office REIT - dipped 4% after reporting disappointing third-quarter results and trimming its full-year earnings outlook. REIT Academy & The Executive REIT Masterclass | The Daily REIT Beat Newsletter | Brad Thomas | #REITs #Dividends #Investing #Income #Yield #RealEstate #Housing #Stocks #Bonds #HighYield #DividendInvesting #IncomeInvesting #Diversification #Inflation #realassets #investment

Layoffs Jump • REIT Earnings • Election Countdown REIT Daily Recap: https://lnkd.in/ezPURw2N U.S. equity markets were mixed Tuesday while benchmark interest rates backed-off from three-month highs as surprisingly weak employment data showed a dip in job openings to the lowest-levels since 2021. Job Openings dipped to 7.44M - substantially below the 8.0M estimate - while the prior month was revised lower as well. The number of layoffs, meanwhile, rose to the highest since January 2023. Swaps markets now price-in 0.99 rate cuts in November (up from 0.96 yesterday) and project a total of 3.76 rate cuts in 2024 (including the 2 in September) - up slightly from 3.68 yesterday, but down from the late-September highs of over 5 implied cuts. In commodities markets, WTI Crude Oil dipped another 1% to below $68/barrel on hints of relief in red-hot Middle East tensions, with reports of diplomatic meetings between Israel and Lebanon. REIT Academy & The Executive REIT Masterclass | The Daily REIT Beat Newsletter | Brad Thomas | #REITs #Dividends #Investing #Income #Yield #RealEstate #Housing #Stocks #Bonds #HighYield #DividendInvesting #IncomeInvesting #Diversification #Inflation #realassets #investment

REIT Earnings • Small-Cap Rebound • Jobs Week Ahead REIT Daily Recap: https://lnkd.in/dxHzTVeU A critical slate of employment and inflation data highlights the economic calendar in the week ahead as the Federal Reserve enters the "quiet period" ahead of its November 6th rate decision, with the main event being the BLS Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Economists expect job growth of roughly 140k in November on the "headline" Establishment Survey, which follows a surprisingly strong report last month, which followed a series of soft reports during the summer. The Average Hourly Earnings series within the payrolls report - the first major inflation print for October - is expected to show that annual wage growth remained steady at 4.0%. Earlier in the week, we'll see the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey ("JOLTS") on Tuesday, ADP Payrolls on Wednesday, Jobless Claims data on Thursday. On Thursday, we'll get the first look at third-quarter Gross Domestic Product, which is expected to show "real" economic growth of 3.0% in the third quarter. While the "job is not done" yet, it does appear at this point that the Federal Reserve has indeed successfully engineered a "soft landing." Since Q1 2022 - corresponding to the start of the Fed's tightening cycle - real GDP has averaged 2.6% while the CPI Index has cooled from 6.3% to 2.4%. We'll also see housing market data via the Case Shiller Home Price report on Tuesday and Pending Home Sales on Thursday. REIT Academy & The Executive REIT Masterclass | The Daily REIT Beat Newsletter | Brad Thomas | #REITs #Dividends #Investing #Income #Yield #RealEstate #Housing #Stocks #Bonds #HighYield #DividendInvesting #IncomeInvesting #Diversification #Inflation #realassets #investment

Brace For Volatility Real Estate Weekly Outlook: https://lnkd.in/ebd7RFsY U.S. equity markets snapped a six-week winning streak, while benchmark interest rates surged to three-month highs as investors braced for a volatile two-week stretch of market-moving events. Another surprisingly solid slate of domestic economic data - highlighted by improved jobless claims and consumer sentiment reports - lifted the U.S. Economic Surprise Index to the highest-level since April. Retreating from record-highs, the S&P 500 finished lower by 1% on the week, declining for just the second time in the past twelve weeks. Rate-sensitive segments and small-caps were laggards. Real estate equities were under renewed pressure as rate headwinds offset an otherwise strong start to REIT earnings season. The Equity REIT Index slipped 1.8% this week. Data Center REIT Digital Realty was the upside standout, surging 10% after reporting record leasing volume and rent growth. At the quarter-way-point of earnings season, 70% of REITs have raised their full-year FFO outlook. REIT Academy & The Executive REIT Masterclass | The Daily REIT Beat Newsletter | Brad Thomas | #REITs #Dividends #Investing #Income #Yield #RealEstate #Housing #Stocks #Bonds #HighYield #DividendInvesting #IncomeInvesting #Diversification #Inflation #realassets #investment

Data Center Demand • Earnings Updates • Volatility Ahead REIT Earnings Updates: https://lnkd.in/ezMe-GK2 Digital Realty (DLR) - the second-largest data center REIT - surged nearly 10% after reporting record-levels of leasing activity and rent growth in the third-quarter and raising its full-year outlook. Consistent with the positive green shots mentioned in our Earnings Preview, DLR reported a stellar $520M in new leasing in the third quarter, which was more than double its prior record set in Q1 of this year. Rent growth was equally impressive, with DLR achieving 15.2% comparable rent increases on these leases, fueled by 31.4% surge in rents for large spaces over 1MW. Citing "better than expected leasing volumes and higher pricing," DLR raised its full-year outlook across most of its key metrics, now forecasting same-store NOI growth of 9.0% this year (up from 6.0% previously) and sees FFO growth of 1.7% (up from 1.3% previously). In its earnings call, DLR emphasized that this leasing demand was broad-based and not isolated to hyperscale or AI, noting that it signed a record 149 new tenants in Q3. DLR also discussed the improved supply dynamics resulting from mounting constraints on power capacity, which has "translated into improved pricing for data center capacity, which was evident across both new and renewed leases with record [rent increases], and 4% escalators on the majority of new leases." Noting that it has completed the majority of the heavy-lifting on its multi-year deleveraging strategy that resulted in sluggish earnings growth since 2019, DLR noted that it is "even more confident now" in its preliminary outlook for "mid-single digit growth for 2025" and setting that as a foundation going forward. REIT Academy & The Executive REIT Masterclass | The Daily REIT Beat Newsletter | Brad Thomas | #REITs #Dividends #Investing #Income #Yield #RealEstate #Housing #Stocks #Bonds #HighYield #DividendInvesting #IncomeInvesting #Diversification #Inflation #realassets #investment

Stocks Rebound • Earnings Updates • Mortgage REIT Optimism REIT Daily Recap: https://lnkd.in/e4snmsig Annaly Capital (NLY) - the largest residential mortgage REIT - gained 0.8% after reporting solid results, as solid gains in its agency MBS portfolio helped to offset declines in its Mortgage Servicing Rights ("MSR") portfolio. NLY noted that its Book Value Per Share ("BVPS") rose 1.5% in Q3 to $19.54, and reported comparable EPS of $0.66 - down from $0.68 last quarter - but still covering its $0.65/quarter dividend. NLY commented, "we feel good about the dividend. We're in a safe place here. Obviously, there's been dividend increases over the last number of months in the sector, but a lot of that was coming from very low levels. And our 13.3% dividend yield is a solid return." Armour Residential (ARR) - which is more singularly focused on agency MBS - gained 0.2% after also reporting solid results, noting that its BVPS rose 2.3% in Q3 to $20.76, while reporting comparable EPS of $1.00 - down from $1.08 - but still covering its $0.72/share dividend. ARR commented, "we believe that our current dividend rate is appropriate... a scenario of Fed easing without a severe economic recession sets up a particularly constructive environment for book value appreciation." Ladder Capital (LADR) - a "hybrid" equity REIT / commercial mREIT - rallied nearly 4% after reporting another strong quarter, noting that its BVPS increased 0.3% to $12.00 and reporting comparable EPS of $0.30 - easily covering its $0.23/quarter dividend. LADR provided very positive commentary and hinted that it would consider a dividend increase in the "first or second quarter" of 2025. We'll see results from Orchid Island (ORC) this afternoon. REIT Academy & The Executive REIT Masterclass | The Daily REIT Beat Newsletter | Brad Thomas | #REITs #Dividends #Investing #Income #Yield #RealEstate #Housing #Stocks #Bonds #HighYield #DividendInvesting #IncomeInvesting #Diversification #Inflation #realassets #investment

Earnings Updates • REIT Dividend Hike • Stocks Slump REIT Daily Recap: https://lnkd.in/dsZAzCAP The solid start to office REIT earnings season continued over the past 24 hours. Sunbelt-focused Highwoods (HIW) gained 1% after reporting strong results - highlighted by another impressive quarter of leasing volume and rent growth - and raised its full-year outlook. HIW signed 906k SF of office space in the third quarter - roughly even with its haul in Q2, which is roughly 95% of its pre-pandemic average from 2017-2019. HIW achieved impressive cash rent spreads of 10.4% on these leases - a record-high for the company - and up considerably from its four-quarter average of -3.0%. Citing a "combination of dwindling large blocks of space, limited-to-no development starts and increasing return-to-office requirements," HIW lifted its full-year outlook as well across several key metrics, now expecting same-store NOI growth of 1.5% (up from 1.25% previously) and now expecting its FFO to decline -5.7% (up from -6.5% previously). HIW commented that this "strong leasing makes us confident that our trough in occupancy early next year will be higher than we previously expected and our recovery will be faster. Philly-focused Brandywine (BDN) - which had surged nearly 20% since the start of October - dipped more than 10% today after reporting mixed results, as a solid quarter of leasing activity was offset by a downward revision to its full-year FFO outlook driven by changes in asset sales plans. BDN signed 298k SF of office space in Q3 - almost double its pace in Q2 - and achieved impressive cash rent spread of 8.9% - its best in nearly three years. REIT Academy & The Executive REIT Masterclass | The Daily REIT Beat Newsletter | Brad Thomas | #REITs #Dividends #Investing #Income #Yield #RealEstate #Housing #Stocks #Bonds #HighYield #DividendInvesting #IncomeInvesting #Diversification #Inflation #realassets #investment