What I learned this week.....
We have a food system horizontally optimized for price, not health. Each value chain component is optimized for process efficiency, not product innovation. Consumer preferences are changing. More and more, consumers will price their food decisions based on a calorie and health basis. They will still eat cheap calories, but only when they can’t find affordable nutrition. The supply chain is catching on. ABCD and the CPGs need to catch up on food science, nutrient density, nutritional variability, and supply chain optimization. Every SKU in grocery needs to consider if its cheap calories or affordable nutrition. In a convergence called Food is Health. The cross-product of AgTech and HealthTech. The companies that catch traction in H2 2024 and H1 2025 are positioned to be the best vintage year returns in the sector’s modern history.
1) The CrossFit community is an important early adopter of affordable nutrition.
2) Fairlife is one best-case example of vertical optimization to improve nutritional density. Fairlife succeeded because it improved every step in the value chain, including brand. Fairlife is about 10 SKUS of 60K SKUS in a large grocery store. is every other SKU ripe for a similar vertical optimization?
3) Heritage grains seem like a small market, but perhaps not in aggregate. Non-trait weed control, improved processing, improved soil health, and improved genetics are speeding to a tipping point. Underestimated?
4) Our appendix may have been a critical store for bacteria. As a backup supply of bacteria to refill our digestive system after a pathogenic attack. Could it be a future vessel for microbiome health?
5) There is an opportunity to palletize grain and meat processing equipment. Specifically to help producers grow nutritionally dense grains and livestock. The size of truck containers. Who is the Elon Musk of this market? (Mad Agriculture)
6) At least 35M acres of US farmland are held by institutional investors. These institutional investors should be active investors in agtech solutions that increase asset value. Are investment banks/startups targeting these LPs for growth equity and cross-over funds?
7) There is really only one FAA certified test bed for agriculture unmanned systems. It is based in Kansas (Kelly Hills Unmanned Systems). These test beds are essential to test interoperability and to develop new business models. (Lukas Koch)
8) Foliar application of micronutrients may increase throughput 100x versus soil application. If you tie this to some combination of analysis from EarthOptics, Miraterra Inc., and Edacious, PBC, we might have a closed-loop approach for in-season crop nutrient density.
9) Little Tech’s move to the right likely has less to do with social ideology and more to do with reducing friction. Moving “Little Tech” back to the forces of creative destruction and capitalism.