Magnus Financial Group LLC

The 50Bps Rate Cut ■ On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points.  ■ A 50-basis point rate cut has only been used in times of crisis, and history shows that if the first cut of a cycle has been a 50-basis point cut, it usually hasn’t led to a soft landing for the U.S. economy.  ■ Similar 50-basis point cuts occurred before the start of the recession in January 2001, before the Global Financial Crisis in September 2007, and during the pandemic in March 2020.  ■ In January 2001, the Fed cut rates, starting with a 50-basis point reduction due to weakening production, declining consumer confidence, tightening financial conditions, and high energy prices.  ■ At that time, jobless claims and headline inflation were higher than today, while core inflation and manufacturing activity were lower. The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 was also higher than it is today.  ■ Both the Fed and markets are expecting the equivalent of another 50-basis point reduction by year end, implying a 25-basis point cut at each of the remaining FOMC meetings in 2024. The full Q4 2024 Market Outlook can be found at: https://lnkd.in/g78yBSbR #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement #ratecut Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

“So, I think what there is to say about consumer spend is a little bit boring in a sense, because what's happened is that it's become normal. Overall, we see the spending patterns as being sort of solid and consistent with the narrative that the consumer is on solid footing and consistent with the strong labor market.” -Jeremy Barnum, JPMorgan Chase CFO The full Q4 2024 Market Outlook can be found at: https://lnkd.in/g78yBSbR #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

Q3, 2024 Market Review ■ Most risky assets fared well over the second quarter, particularly rate-sensitive areas of the market, helped by the first U.S. interest rate cut in September.  ■ U.S. small cap stocks were the top-performers over the quarter, gaining 9.3%. U.S. large cap stocks ended the third quarter up 5.9%. Emerging and frontier market stocks gained 8.7% over the quarter, driven by strong performance in a handful of countries.  ■ U.S. intermediate-term bonds ended the third quarter up 5.3% while international developed market bonds ended the quarter up 9.3%.  ■ U.S. REITs and ex-U.S. real estate securities were the top-performing assets over the quarter, gaining 16.1% and 17.0%, respectively. Gold gained 13.9% over the quarter. The full Q4 2024 Market Outlook can be found at: https://lnkd.in/g78yBSbR #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement #marketreview Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

“While inflation is slowing and the U.S. economy remains resilient, several critical issues remain, including large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world. While we hope for the best, these events and the prevailing uncertainty demonstrate why we must be prepared for any environment." - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO The full Q4 2024 Market Outlook can be found at: https://lnkd.in/g78yBSbR #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement #inflation Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

Rate Cuts and Deficits and Elections, Oh My! ■ Despite limited signs of slowing economic growth, a strong labor market, and inflation remaining above 2%, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.  ■ However, despite this and a growing U.S. fiscal deficit, bond markets and yields have remained relatively stable. Recent slowly rising longer-term yields may indicate that bond markets are acknowledging the Fed's willingness to tolerate higher inflation or reflecting concerns about the precarious U.S. fiscal situation. ■  Limited political will to cut spending and the Fed’s lenient approach to the last mile of inflation increase the risk that inflation could rise again—particularly if the growing deficit pressures the Fed to print more money to help the government manage its debt. ■ Policymakers seem content with decisions that prioritize the here and now at the expense of long-term fiscal stability, thereby limiting their ability to respond to future crises and threatening the role of the U.S. dollar in global trade. ■ Regardless of individual opinions of the sustainability of deficits and how and when they should be addressed, the bond market may likely be the final arbiter of the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal strategy—or lack thereof. The full Q4 2024 Market Outlook can be found here: https://lnkd.in/g78yBSbR #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #financialmarkets #globaltrends #riskmanagement Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

Magnus Financial Group LLC is honored to announce that we have gained further recognition within the financial services industry after earning a place on Forbes among America's Top RIA Firms 2024. View the Ranking: https://lnkd.in/gyRbJuW8 View the Methodology: https://lnkd.in/gN37x7Fy #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #commerce #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #socialmedia #marketing #education #data #money #awards #forbes Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden

■ U.S. large-cap stocks gained 5.9% during the third #quarter while U.S. small caps rose 9.3%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index had its best September since 2003. ■ The Federal Reserve cut #interestrates by 50 basis points, and it is expected to cut another 50 basis points before year-end. ■ The U.S. Treasury’s fiscal year ended in September with a $1.9 trillion deficit, the largest ever in a #nonrecession year. ■ Investors face ambiguity around interest rates, the growing #deficit, and upcoming #elections, requiring nuanced vigilance in portfolio construction. Please see the attached Q3, 2024 Market Commentary which may be of interest to you: https://lnkd.in/gs6WF3xC #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #money #socialmedia #marketing #trends #marketcommentary #interestrates Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CME Group, Forbes, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Apollo Academy, CNN, 270toWin, RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, Statista, Reuters, Bloomberg, TradingView.

Please see the attached Asset Class Return Quilts which may be of interest to you: https://lnkd.in/g62srvxH #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #returns #assetclass Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden Sources: Bloomberg, Morningstar, SpringTide Partners, MSCI Inc., LBMA, PitchBook

Please see the attached Market Review which may be of interest to you: https://lnkd.in/gjJb_8dC #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #bigdata #data #money #socialmedia #marketing #inflation #trends #privatemarket Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden Sources: Bloomberg, SpringTide Partners, Morningstar, Cambridge Associates

■ Despite early declines, U.S. large-cap stocks recovered to end August up 2.4%, but U.S. # small-cap stocks finished down 1.5%. U.S. intermediate-term #bonds rose 1.4%. ■ The #FederalReserve signaled a likely rate cut in September. Markets are expecting 1% in cuts by year-end, implying one 0.5% cut, a move typically only seen in crises. ■ The broader #market rally since August 5 was led by interest-rate-sensitive utilities and real estate sectors. ■ As we head into the year-end, markets will be focused on potential interest rate cuts, #inflation trends, and the upcoming #election.  Please see the attached August 2024 Market Commentary which may be of interest to you: https://lnkd.in/g-p-Bz7f #magnus #magnusfinancialgroup #ria #wealthmanagement #investments #financialplanning #investing #markets #economy #economics #future #commerce #finance #investment #investmentplanning #investmentadvice #investmentmanagement #education #money #socialmedia #marketing #trends #marketcommentary #inflation #diversification #economicgrowth #marketvaluations #equitymarket #artificialintelligence Michael Schwartz, CFP®, AEP®, Ronald Deutsch, CFA, MBA, Sharon Hayut, CDFA®, Drew J. Collins, CFA, MBA, Michael Tanney, Paul F. Hoerrner Jr., CFP®, Scott Kephart, CRPC®, CLTC®, Chase Wickenheiser, CFP®, William "Billy" Bowden Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, CNBC, CME Group, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Reuters, S&P Global, Bankrate, FactSet, Franklin Templeton, Bloomberg